上半年以来，公司白内障和综合眼病收入持续增长，消费眼科类业务短期承压。分业务看，24 年上半年公司屈光收入6.92 亿元（-2.50%），视光收入1.84亿元（-3.89%），白内障收入3.11 亿元（+13.22%），综合眼病收入2.26 亿元（+14.87%），以上四项业务收入占比分别为49%/13%/22%/16%。Matters:
Recently, the company released its 24-year semi-annual report. In 24 and a half years, the company achieved revenue of 1.42 billion yuan (+3.08%), net profit attributable to mother 0.043 billion yuan (-81.56%), and net profit not attributable to mother of 0.045 billion yuan (-69.50%). In the second quarter of '24, the company achieved revenue of 0.744 billion yuan (+2.24%), net profit to mother 0.029 billion yuan (-63.59%), and net profit of non-return to mother 0.026 billion yuan (-65.99%).
Commentary:
Since the first half of the year, the company's cataract and comprehensive eye disease revenue has continued to grow, and the consumer ophthalmology business has been under pressure in the short term. By business, in the first half of '24, the company's refractive revenue was 0.692 billion yuan (-2.50%), optometry revenue was 0.184 billion yuan (-3.89%), cataract revenue was 0.311 billion yuan (+13.22%), and comprehensive eye disease revenue was 0.226 billion yuan (+14.87%). The above four businesses accounted for 49%/13%/22%/16%, respectively.
Along with the adjustment of the company's business focus, the company's cataract business showed impressive growth in the first half of '24, in addition to the continuous release of the previous cataract backlog demand, mainly because: 1) the cataract market penetration rate is low and the cataract surgery treatment market continues to grow; 2) the company is committed to promoting the transformation and upgrading of restorative cataract surgery to high-end refractive cataract surgery; 3) The company continued to introduce well-known national cataract surgery experts to enhance brand awareness and reputation.
The company's mature, growth and start-up hospital echelon layout strategy are progressing steadily. In the first half of '24, the company has set up more than 30 specialized ophthalmology hospitals and many ophthalmology clinics. 1) Core self-built hospitals performed well. In the first half of '24, Kunming Purui/Wushi Purui/Lanzhou Purui achieved revenue of 0.167/0.092/0.075 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 13.1%/-5.5%/-9.4% year-on-year. 2) Epitaxial mergers and acquisitions contribute to strong growth drivers. In the first half of '24, Dongguan Guangming Eye Hospital achieved revenue of 0.105 billion yuan (+3.73%), net profit of 0.023 billion yuan, and a net interest rate of 21.64%. Since the merger and acquisition, Dongguan Guangming Ophthalmology has become a solid foundation for the company to expand the South China region, especially the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area market (Guangzhou Yuexiu Purui, Shenzhen Nanshan Purui, Fuzhou Purui).
Investment advice: Since the company is still in a period of rapid expansion, it is expected that it will still have to bear the costs of preparing and opening hospitals in the short term. Combined with the company report, we adjusted the company's revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 to 31.36 billion yuan, 36.67 billion yuan, and 4.289 billion yuan, respectively (previous forecast values were 3.175 billion, 3.712 billion yuan, and 4.268 billion yuan, respectively), up 15.4%, 16.9%, and 17.0% year-on-year; net profit to mother was 1.69, 2.17, and 261 million yuan (forecast) (Previous values were $2.05, 2.59 million, and $303 million), with year-on-year growth rates of -36.9%, 28.1%, and 20.3%.
Referring to comparable companies, we gave 2024 40 times PE, corresponding to a market capitalization of 6.8 billion yuan, and a corresponding target price of 45 yuan. Maintain a “Recommended” rating.
Risk warning: price war for refractive surgery, fluctuations in net profit of newly built hospitals, public opinion risks caused by medical accidents, etc.