维持增持评级。考虑到流感疫苗降价影响，下调 2024-2026 年预测EPS 为0.75/0.90/1.02 元（原为0.88/1.04/1.17 元），参照板块中枢给予2024 年目标PE 26X，下调目标价为19.50 元（原为26.81 元），维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's 2024Q2 performance recovered strongly month-on-month. Pulp collection is expected to maintain rapid growth, and the vaccine is expected to maintain an increase in holdings rating in exchange for price.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings rating. Considering the impact of the influenza vaccine price reduction, the 2024-2026 forecast EPS was lowered to 0.75/0.90/1.02 yuan (previously 0.88/1.04/1.17 yuan), the 2024 target PE was given 26X according to the sector center, and the target price was lowered to 19.50 yuan (originally 26.81 yuan) to maintain the increase rating.
The performance was in line with expectations. In 2024H1, the company achieved revenue of 1.653 billion yuan (+4.3%, same below), net profit of 0.44 billion yuan (-16.4%), net profit of 0.363 billion yuan (-8.8%); 2024Q2 achieved revenue of 0.866 billion yuan (+22.8%) in a single quarter, net profit to mother of 0.178 billion yuan (+2.0%), net profit of 0.141 billion yuan (+16.0%). 2024Q1 declined year-on-year due to the cancellation of the policy for simultaneous batch issuance of Jingjing and the influenza vaccine base during the same period; strong recovery was achieved in 2024Q2, and the performance growth rate matched the growth rate of pulp collection, which was in line with expectations.
Two new pulping stations have been approved in Chongqing, and the amount of pulp collected is expected to continue to grow. The blood products business 2024H1 achieved revenue of 1.614 billion yuan (+12.8%), and gross margin declined slightly due to cost accounting and price cuts for some small products. The company's pulp harvesting has entered a new growth cycle since 2023. In 2023, the pulping volume reached 1,342 tons (+19.6%). 2024H1 pulping also maintained rapid growth, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22.5%. The company currently has 34 pulp stations. Of the 7 Henan pulping stations approved in 2022, 4 will start pulping in 2023, and the remaining 3 will also start pulping in 2024H1; the two new pulping stations in Chongqing were approved in August 2024, and mining is expected to be completed in 2025. As stock slurry stations are being excavated, new pulping stations are climbing slopes one after another, and the amount of pulp collected is expected to maintain rapid growth within a few years. Research and development of new varieties is also being actively promoted. 10% of Jingpropionate has completed phase III clinical research, is in the registration and marketing stage, and 9 Factor is undergoing phase III clinical research. In the future, as new varieties are approved for sale one after another, the profitability of tons of slurry is expected to remain at a high level.
There is great potential to increase influenza vaccination rates, and price cuts are expected to increase sales. China's influenza vaccination rate is low, and the market potential is huge. Major companies in the 2024H1 industry have generally lowered the price of the quadrivalent influenza vaccine. The adult dosage of the company's quadrivalent influenza vaccine was also reduced from about 128 yuan to about 88 yuan, and the child dosage was reduced from about 166 yuan to about 128 yuan. The price drop is expected to boost the vaccination rate. As a leading domestic influenza vaccine, the company is expected to fully grasp the opportunities brought by market growth. Tetanus and rabies that have been approved in recent years are also expected to contribute to the increase.
Risk warning: Changes in the supply and demand of blood products terminals, the increase in pulp collection falls short of expectations, and the impact of vaccine price cuts is greater than expected
