行业整顿致收入端承压，基本面改善仍需关注后续招采复苏节奏。1H24 期间公司收入53.33 亿元（+1.18% YoY），我们测算1Q24/2Q24 分别实现同比增长6.2%/-2.5%。1H24 收入分板块看，CT 产品线同比承压，MR 及MI表现良好；1H24 收入分地区看，国内收入44.01 亿元（-3.4% YoY），海外收入9.33 亿元（+29.9% YoY），海外收入占比进一步提升至17.5%（+3.9pct YoY）。1H24 医疗行业整顿持续，临床端招采活动有所延迟，各设备类产品终端放量遇阻，致公司国内设备销售业务承压，我们预计公司基本面维度改善弹性或仍需关注后续临床招采复苏节奏。另一方面，随着公司新品落地及行业对高端产品采购需求渐起，我们预计公司CT 及XR 领域高端产品放量或具备相对韧性。1H24 results slightly lower than market expectations
The company announced 1H24 results: revenue of 5.333 billion yuan (+1.18% YoY), net profit of 0.95 billion yuan (+1.33% YoY), slightly lower than market expectations, mainly due to weak recovery in clinical recruitment, equipment sales fell short of expectations.
Development trends
Industry restructuring has put pressure on the revenue side, and improvements in fundamentals still need to pay attention to the pace of subsequent recruitment recovery. The company's revenue during the 1H24 period was 5.333 billion yuan (+1.18% YoY), and we estimate 1Q24/2Q24 to achieve 6.2%/-2.5% year-on-year growth, respectively. Looking at the 1H24 revenue segment, the CT product line was under year-on-year pressure, and MR and MI performed well; in terms of 1H24 revenue by region, domestic revenue was 4.401 billion yuan (-3.4% YoY), overseas revenue was 0.933 billion yuan (+29.9% YoY), and the share of overseas revenue increased further to 17.5% (+3.9 pct YoY). 1H24 The medical industry continues to be rectified. Clinical procurement activities have been delayed, and terminal release of various equipment products has been blocked, putting pressure on the company's domestic equipment sales business. We expect the company's fundamentals to improve flexibility or still need to pay attention to the pace of subsequent clinical recruitment recovery. On the other hand, with the launch of the company's new products and the gradual rise in the industry's demand for high-end product procurement, we expect that the volume of high-end products released by the company in the CT and XR fields may be relatively resilient.
The overall profit level is stable, and dividends are announced to give back to shareholders. 1H24's gross profit margin is 50.4% (+1.7pct YoY), and the overall gross profit level is progressing steadily. We expect the company to strengthen cost control, respond flexibly to market demand, continuously improve operating efficiency, and be driven by an increase in the share of revenue from high-end products and services. The net profit margin for 1H24 was 17.8%, the same as the previous year. According to the announcement, the company plans to pay a dividend of 1.2 yuan for every 10 shares, with a total dividend size of about 98.27 million yuan. The dividend ratio is about 10.3% based on semi-annual profits, and continues to give back to shareholders.
Firmly invest in R&D and innovation to establish long-term comprehensive competitiveness. During the 1H24 period, the company invested 1.017 billion yuan (+ 11.11% YoY) in R&D. The company always attached great importance to investment in innovation, maintained high investment for many years, and supported long-term growth momentum. According to the announcement, during the 1H24 period, the company's CT product market share ranked first, MR market share third, PET/CT ranked first in MI, and second in PET/MR market share. The rest of the products were at the forefront of the industry.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Considering that the weak recovery in industry recruitment puts pressure on the company's 1H24 fundamentals, we lowered our 24/25 profit forecast by 6.4%/5.0% to 2.24/2.67 billion yuan. Considering recent sector valuation fluctuations, we prudently lowered our target price by 14.4% to 137 yuan (based on DCF valuation, 29.6% upside) to maintain our outperforming industry rating.
risks
The recovery in clinical recruitment fell short of expectations, policy suppression of prices exceeded expectations, and industry competition intensified.