毛利率提升驱动盈利能力持续改善。1）1H24 公司归母净利率同比+0.4pct至14.9%，主要系毛利率同比+2.7pct 至50.5%。销售/管理费用率分别同比+1.8pct/-0.5pct 至10.9%/3.0%。实际所得税率同比下降4.3pct 至24.2%。2）2Q24 归母净利率同比+2.0pct 至7.8%，其中毛利率同比+6.1pct，销售/管理费用率同比+5.0pct/-0.7pct，销售费用上行或系广宣、商超、促销费用增加所致。管理费用下降或与中介费、美酒节支出同比减少有关。Incidents. The company released its 2024 semi-annual report: 1H24 achieved total operating income of 1.33 billion yuan, +8.9% year on year; net profit to mother of 0.198 billion yuan, +12.1% year over year. Among them, Q2 achieved total operating income of 0.498 billion yuan in a single quarter, +3.6% year over year, and net profit to mother 0.039 billion yuan, +38.9% year on year.
Overseas markets grew rapidly, and the product structure gradually declined. By product: 1H24's premium/medium/low-grade liquor revenue was +7.1% year-on-year, +13.8%/+29.1% to 0.869/0.342/0.102 billion yuan, 2Q24's single-season high/medium/low-grade revenue was +1.0%/+24.3%/+8.5%, respectively. The quarterly product structure fluctuated slightly, or related to the phased product reshaping of large single products. The promotion of new products to the market in the second half of the year began.
Looking at the subregions, 1H24 domestic/overseas revenue was +4.4%/+33.8% year-on-year to 0.999/0.315 billion yuan, respectively. Among them, revenue from outside the country increased by 31.1% to 0.165 billion yuan in the Q2 single quarter. By channel, 1H24 wholesale agent/direct sales/online sales were +4.5%/+60.5%/+9.0% year-on-year to 1.059/0.188/0.066 billion yuan, respectively. At the end of the second quarter of '24, the number of domestic and foreign distributors of the company increased by 5 compared to the end of '23, respectively, and remained the same.
Increased gross margin drives continuous improvement in profitability. 1) 1H24's net profit margin was +0.4 pct to 14.9% year on year, mainly due to gross margin of +2.7 pct to 50.5% year over year. Sales/management expense ratios were +1.8pct/-0.5pct to 10.9%/3.0%, respectively. The real income tax rate fell 4.3pct year over year to 24.2%. 2) Net profit margin for 2Q24 was +2.0pct year on year to 7.8%, with gross margin +6.1pct year over year and sales/management expenses ratio +5.0pct/-0.7pct year over year. The increase in sales expenses may be due to increased advertising, supermarkets, and promotion expenses. The decline in management expenses may be related to the year-on-year decrease in agency fees and wine festival expenses.
Sales revenue has been reduced, and contractual liabilities have remained stable. In terms of cash flow, 2Q24's sales revenue was 0.3 billion yuan, -26.5% YoY. Net cash flow from operating activities was -0.174 billion yuan, compared to -0.077 billion yuan for the same period in '23. Operating cash expenses also increased according to the interim report. In terms of advance receipt, as of the end of the second quarter of '24, the company's contract debt was 0.062 billion yuan, +10.7% year-on-year, and a decrease of 0.03 billion yuan. In 2Q24, the actual sales growth rate after considering changes in revenue and contractual liabilities was 1.7%.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. We expect the company's 2024-2026 EPS to be 0.81, 0.99, and 1.17 yuan/share, respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations, the company was given 20-25 times PE in 2024, with a corresponding reasonable value range of 16.24-20.30 yuan, maintaining a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning. Domestic competition intensified, overseas expansion fell short of expectations, food safety issues.
