需求景气回落，加上竞争有所加剧，Q2 公司营收承压。24Q2 营收同比-6.8%，低于此前预期。分渠道来看，线上渠道收入同比+57.4%，继续受益于食萃并表贡献和线上渠道深耕，而线下下滑较多，单Q2 下滑程度在双位数以上。分产品来看，单Q2 公司火锅底料同比-22.9%，一是今年C 端复调行业景气边际回落，二是竞争对手今年策略优化、导致竞争加剧，中式复调增长同样环比略有放缓，单Q2 收入同比+4.8%，而香肠腊肉底料进入淡季基本不贡献收入，包含鸡精、香辣酱等在内的其他产品也出现下滑，单Q2 收入同比-12.2％。分区域来看，除南部/西部地区收入小幅正增外，北部/东部/中部地区Q2 收入均出现一定程度下滑，经销商总数目也减少33 家至3150 家。Matters:
The company released its 2024 semi-annual report. 24H1 achieved revenue of 1.47 billion yuan, +3.0% year-on-year; realized net profit of 0.25 billion yuan, +18.8% year-on-year. The Q2 Company achieved revenue of 0.61 billion, -6.8% YoY; net profit to mother was 0.07 billion, or -10.9% YoY.
Commentary:
The decline in demand and increased competition put pressure on Q2 company revenue. 24Q2 revenue was -6.8% YoY, lower than previously anticipated. By channel, online channel revenue was +57.4% year-on-year, continuing to benefit from the combined contribution of food extraction and the deep cultivation of online channels, while offline declined a lot, and the extent of the decline in single Q2 was more than double digits. By product, Single Q2's hot pot base ratio was -22.9%. First, the C-side remodulation industry experienced a marginal decline this year. The second was that competitors' strategy optimization this year led to increased competition. Chinese polymodulation growth also slowed slightly month-on-month. Single Q2 revenue was +4.8% year-on-year, while sausage and bacon base basically did not contribute to revenue during the off-season. Other products, including chicken essence and spicy sauce, also declined. Single Q2 revenue was -12.2% year over year. Subregionally, with the exception of a slight positive increase in revenue in the South/West region, the North/East/Central region all experienced a certain decline in Q2 revenue, and the total number of dealers also decreased by 33 to 3150.
The gross sales margin was further improved. Excluding the impact on the return on investment base, the Q2 company's deducted non-profit margin increased slightly.
The company's 24Q2 gross margin was 33.3%, +2.2pcts year on year, mainly the price of raw materials such as oil fell, production automation efficiency improved. The Q2 sales expense ratio was 10.7%, -0.7 pcts year on year, and the gross sales margin was further improved. Single 24Q2 was +2.9 pcts year over year, and the management expenses ratio was -1.4 pcts to 6.9% year over year, mainly due to a significant reduction in share payment expenses, while other R&D/finance expenses increased slightly, respectively +0.6/+0.3 pcts, and the final company net interest rate was 11.5%, year on year- 0.5pcts. Excluding the impact of fluctuations in investment income, a single 24Q2 company deducted 10.3% non-net interest rate, +1.2pcts compared to +1.2pcts, and profits continued to perform well. Furthermore, the subsidiary Food Extract achieved net profit of 18.081 million yuan in the first half of the year and continued to perform steadily.
Demand pressure remains in the second half of the year, so pay attention to the company's subsequent marketing adjustments. Q2 Entering the low season of the industry, combined with a decline in consumption, the pressure on the company's revenue side increased, but the good news was that it maintained its operating strength, did not overdraft the health of the channel and the overall price of the product, and maintained a normal operating rhythm. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, under a relatively high base, the company's revenue side is expected to remain under some pressure, but it is expected that compared to Q2 or some recovery, the profit side is expected to maintain a high level of profit. The next step is to focus on adjusting the company's marketing strategy, optimizing competitors' style of play, forming a squeeze with lower prices and channel capabilities, and focusing on subsequent companies' responses. The second is to focus on the company's new product development. The 24H1 revenue growth rate has slowed, partly due to failure to effectively accept new products. The marginal contribution of some single products, such as crayfish, has declined under a high base, while the scale of thick hot pot and regional single products is still climbing.
Investment advice: Revenue is still under pressure, profit performance is steady, and the “recommended” rating is maintained. The company's short-term fundamentals are still under pressure. Focus on marketing strategy adjustments and new product development progress. In the long run, the trend in the remodulation industry is clear, the company combines internal and external extension, and BC channels, and still enjoys a growth logic. Based on the interim report, we slightly adjusted the 24-26 EPS forecast to 0.48/0.54/0.60 yuan (previously EPS forecast was 0.51/0.60/0.69 yuan) and gave a target price of 12 yuan, corresponding to 25 times PE in 24 years, and continued to maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: New product expansion falls short of expectations, industry competition intensifies, food safety issues.
