2024H1 总营收 596.96 亿元（同减10%），主要系液态奶与冷饮销量下降所致；归母净利润75.31 亿元（同增19%），扣非归母净利润53.24 亿元(同减13%)。其中2024Q2 总营收272.33 亿元（同减17%），归母净利润16.08 亿元（同减40%）,扣非归母净利润15.97 亿元（同减43%）。2024H1 毛利率同增2pct 至 34.78%，主要系原奶价格下行所致；销售费用率同增2pct 至19.48%，主要系广告营销费用增加所致，随着收入恢复与规模效应显现，预计下半年恢复平稳；管理费用率同减0.1pct 至3.93%，主要系职工薪酬费用减少所致。综合来看，2024H1 归母净利率同增3pct 至12.62%，盈利能力改善。On August 29, 2024, Yili Co., Ltd. released its 2024 semi-annual report.
Key points of investment
The revenue side was under pressure in the second quarter, and profitability improved
Total revenue of 2024H1 was $59.696 billion (same decrease of 10%), mainly due to a decrease in sales of liquid milk and cold drinks; net profit to mother was 7.531 billion yuan (19% increase), net profit of 5.324 billion yuan (same decrease of 13%). Among them, 2024Q2 total revenue was 27.233 billion yuan (same decrease of 17%), net profit attributable to mother was 1.608 billion yuan (same decrease of 40%), and net profit of non-return to mother was 1.597 billion yuan (same decrease of 43%). The 2024H1 gross margin also increased by 2 pct to 34.78%, mainly due to the decline in raw milk prices; the sales expenses ratio increased by 2 pct to 19.48%, mainly due to an increase in advertising and marketing expenses, which are expected to stabilize in the second half of the year as revenue recovery and scale effects become apparent; and the management expenses ratio also decreased by 0.1 pct to 3.93%, mainly due to a decrease in employee remuneration costs. Taken together, the net interest rate due to 2024H1 also increased by 3 pcts to 12.62%, improving profitability.
Liquid milk shipments are slowing down, and the milk powder business continues to grow
In terms of products, the revenue of 2024H1 liquid milk/milk powder and dairy/cold drink products/other products was 368.87/14.509/7.322/0.406 billion yuan, respectively, -13%/+7%/-20%/+27%, respectively. Liquid milk controlled inventory through freshness adjustments in 2024Q2, and actual sales were better than reports; infant formula achieved double-digit growth under the 2024Q2 revenue base, and adult powder focused on functional attributes and ranked first in the market; the cold drink business was sluggish in 2024Q2 terminal sales due to weak consumer demand and weather; the non-dairy business plans to create a second growth curve in water and freshly brewed tea. In terms of channels, 2024H1 distribution/direct management revenue was 57.454/1.671 billion yuan, respectively, down 10%/11%, respectively. The share of traditional offline channels has been rising steadily, while emerging e-commerce channels have continued to grow. The company strives to create diversified channels and explore consumption opportunities in channels such as snacks and To-B. 2024H1's revenue in North China/South China/Central China/East China/Other regions was 167.98/147.06/10.998/9.084/7.539 billion yuan, down 6%/12%/11%/14%/5% respectively.
Profit forecasting
The company's brand strength is still stable, and the channel/product moat is deep. Revenue is expected to improve quarterly as the economy recovers, and the dividend return strategy will gradually be implemented. EPS is expected to be 1.86/2.17/2.49 yuan respectively in 2024-2026, and the current stock price corresponds to 12/11/9 times PE, respectively, maintaining a “buy” investment rating.
Risk warning
Downside macroeconomic risks, market incentives related to buyback fall short of expectations, further intensification of competition, rising raw material costs, and falling short of expectations in core products.
