受益于跨境电商快速增长以及全球工业生产温和上升影响，2024 年上半年公司航空速运、综合物流解决方案分别实现营业收入43.33、57.27 亿元，同比分别-4.31%、+55.72%，总体呈增长态势。其中，公司上半年运输跨境电商货物6.81 万吨，同比+40.26%。2024Q2，浦东机场出口的波罗的海空运运价指数均值为4,692 ，同比+23.41%，环比+19.25%，跨境空运行业景气度不断提高。随着三、四季度欧美传统消费旺季到来，有望带动公司航空速运和跨境电商物流业务业绩进一步增长。occurrences
On August 29, 2024, the company released its 2024 semi-annual report. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 11.286 billion yuan, +20.38% year-on-year; realized net profit to mother and net profit after deducting net profit of 1.277 and 1.197 billion yuan respectively, +0.45% and +5.26% year-on-year respectively. Among them, 2024Q2 achieved operating income of 6.062 billion yuan, +26.29% year over month, +16.05% month on month; realized net profit of 0.688 billion yuan, +34.89% year over year, and +16.89% month on month, all of which increased significantly.
Cross-border e-commerce boosts performance growth, and industry sentiment gradually rises
Benefiting from the rapid growth of cross-border e-commerce and the moderate rise in global industrial production, the company's air express and integrated logistics solutions achieved revenue of 4.333 and 5.727 billion yuan respectively in the first half of 2024, which was -4.31% and +55.72% year-on-year respectively, showing an overall growth trend. Among them, the company transported 0.0681 million tons of cross-border e-commerce goods in the first half of the year, +40.26% over the same period last year. 2024Q2, the average value of the Baltic air freight rate index exported from Pudong Airport was 4,692, +23.41% year over year, and +19.25% month on month. The prosperity of the cross-border air transport industry continues to increase. With the arrival of the traditional peak consumption season in Europe and the US in the third and fourth quarters, it is expected to drive further growth in the company's air express and cross-border e-commerce logistics business performance.
Ground services contribute to stable earnings, and mid-term dividends return to shareholders
The company has core cargo terminal and airport logistics and warehousing facilities resources at Pudong Airport, and its competitive advantage is obvious. In the first half of 2024, the company's cargo and mail handling volume was 1.2032 million tons, +1.28%; the ground integrated service business achieved operating income of 1.222 billion yuan, +4.70% year over year; achieved gross profit of 0.49 billion yuan, +15.11% year over year; gross profit margin of 40.08%, +3.62 pcts year on year. In addition, the board of directors approved the 2024 mid-term profit distribution plan, which distributes a cash dividend of 0.389 yuan (tax included) per share, for a total of 0.616 billion yuan (tax included), and a dividend rate of 48.35%.
Investment advice
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 25.239, 30.733, and 35.066 billion yuan, respectively, +22.39%, +21.77%, and 14.10%; realized net profit to mother will be 3.25, 3.694, and 4.119 billion yuan, respectively, +30.63%, +13.63%, +11.52%, and 3-year CAGR 18.29%, respectively. I am optimistic that the cross-border air transport industry is gradually improving. The company has mastered core air transport capacity resources and cargo terminal infrastructure, and has a clear competitive advantage. At the same time, as profits increase, it is expected that long-term sustainable dividends will increase, shareholder returns will increase, and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Global economic recovery fell short of expectations; overseas countries introduced restrictions on China's cross-border e-commerce platforms; additional supply of all freighter capacity increased beyond expectations.
