油气净产量和实现油价大幅提高，业绩增幅远优于同期油价波动。2024 年上半年，公司实现总净产量362.6 百万桶油当量，同比上升9.3%。其中，中国净产量247.6 百万桶油当量，同比上升7.1%，主要来自于垦利6-1 和渤中19-6 等油气田产量贡献贡献；海外净产量114.9 百万桶油当量，同比上升14.2%，主要原因是圭亚那Payara 产量增加。2024上半年布油均价为83.42 美元/桶，同比上涨4.39%，但去年上半年的贴水在6.34 美元，今年上半年仅有3.1 美元, 贴水同比大幅缩窄，公司实现油价同比增加9.17%。最终2024上半年归母净利润797.31 亿元，同比增加25.05%，远优于同期国际油价波动。Description of the event
The company disclosed its 2024 semi-annual report. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 226.77 billion yuan, an increase of 18.07% over the previous year; net profit to mother was 79.731 billion yuan, an increase of 25.05% over the previous year. Among them, revenue for the second quarter was 115.302 billion yuan, up 22.20% year on year; net profit to mother was 40.012 billion yuan, up 26.43% year on year.
Incident comments
Net oil and gas production and achieved a sharp increase in oil prices. The increase in performance was far superior to the fluctuation in oil prices during the same period. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a total net output of 362.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 9.3% over the previous year. Among them, China's net output was 247.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 7.1% year on year, mainly due to the contribution of oil and gas fields such as Kenli 6-1 and Bozhong 19-6; overseas net output was 114.9 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 14.2% year on year, mainly due to increased Guyana's Payara production. The average price of oil in the first half of 2024 was 83.42 US dollars/barrel, up 4.39% year on year, but the first half of last year was 6.34 US dollars, and the first half of this year was only 3.1 US dollars. The water rate narrowed sharply year on year, and the company achieved a 9.17% increase in oil prices. The final net profit for the first half of 2024 was 79.731 billion yuan, an increase of 25.05% over the previous year, far superior to the fluctuation in international oil prices during the same period.
Cost reduction and efficiency continue to advance, and the main cost advantages of barrel oil are highlighted. The company controls costs throughout the exploration, development and production process, and actively promotes technological and management innovation. It has gradually established and consolidated its competitive cost advantage in the industry. The cost of barrel oil is far lower than that of comparable companies in the same industry. The main cost of barrel oil in the first half of 2024 was 27.75 US dollars, down 1.49% year on year. Among them, operating costs were well controlled, mainly due to the combined impact of production growth and exchange rate changes, and the cost competitive advantage continued to consolidate.
Looking forward to the future, the oil price center is expected to operate at medium to high levels, and the company's production is growing steadily. Looking ahead, the oil price center is still expected to be above $70 per barrel against the backdrop of limited increases in US production combined with OPEC production cuts and price increases. CNOOC's net oil and gas production target for 2024-2026 is 700-720, 780-800, and 810-830 million barrels of oil equivalent. According to central calculations, the year-on-year growth rates are 4.7%, 11.3%, and 3.8%, respectively. According to the actual growth rate in the first half of the year, it is expected to exceed expectations for the whole year.
Focus on shareholder returns, and valuations may continue to be repaired. The company has always attached importance to shareholder returns and has maintained dividends twice a year. The total dividend payout in 2023 is HK$1.25 per share, with a dividend ratio of about 44%, and a total dividend of about HK$59.5 billion. In the first half of 2024, in order to positively return shareholders, the company decided to pay an interim dividend of HK$0.74 per share (tax included) for 2024, a record high for the same period. Since this year, in the energy sector of central state-owned enterprises represented by three barrels of oil, stock prices and corporate valuations have increased markedly in the context of ensuring energy security and the transformation of new energy sources. However, in comparison with domestic non-state-owned enterprises in the same industry and overseas enterprises in the same industry, the current valuation is still relatively low. As the profitability gap between central state-owned enterprises represented by three barrels of oil gradually narrows, the valuations of leading central state-owned enterprises such as CNOOC still have significant prospects of improving, and valuations may continue to be repaired.
The company's 2024-2026EPS is expected to be 3.13 yuan, 3.45 yuan, and 3.63 yuan, respectively. The PE corresponding to the closing price on August 29, 2024 was 9.27X, 8.41X, and 7.99X, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. The sharp drop in international oil prices;
2. Geopolitical risks.
