Old white dry wine (600559): High-end liquor accounts for more than half of the profits under cost control

投资要点

事件：24H1 营业收入24.70 亿元（同比+10.65%）；归母净利润3.04 亿元（同比+40.25%）。24Q2 营业收入13.40 亿元（同比+9.00%）；归母净利润1.68 亿元（同比+46.69%），Q2 收入符合预期、利润超预期。

24H1 高档酒增长较快，百元以上产品占比过半24H1 公司100 元以上档次酒、100 元以下档次酒分别实现收入12.53、11.99 亿元，同比+19.66%、+12.93%，高档酒（百元以上）收入占比+1.45pct 至51.10%。

24Q2 公司100 元以上档次酒、100 元以下档次酒分别实现收入7.26、6.04 亿元，同比+10.45%、+12.70%，高档酒（百元以上）收入占比-0.50pct 至54.59%。

24H1 山东增长亮眼，各区域维持较快增长

24H1 河北、安徽、湖南、山东、其他省份收入同比+14.52%、+14.56%、+10.10%、+35.99%、+50.94%，山东占比+0.49pct、其他省份占比+1.77pct。

24Q2 河北、安徽、湖南、山东、其他省份收入同比+9.33%、+15.21%、+3.71%、+33.45%、+50.79%，山东占比+0.57pct、其他省份占比+1.85pct。

渠道结构持续优化，河北经销商数量显著增长24H1 经销、直销（含团购）、线上销售收入22.91（同比+17.82%）、1.29（同比+1.25%）、0.31（同比-13.72%）亿元，经销收入占比同比+1.22pct 至93.47%。

24Q2 经销、直销（含团购）、线上销售收入12.48（同比+11.37%）、0.69（同比+26.97%）、0.13（同比-28.93%）亿元，经销收入占比同比-0.08pct 至93.81%。

上半年河北、山东、安徽、湖南经销商数量分别变动+113、-25、+20、-141 个，24H1 公司平均经销商规模同比+16.51%。

费用管控助力盈利提升，预收款表现稳定

1）24H1 公司毛利率为65.84%（同比-1.33pct），扣非净利率为11.27%（同比+2.75pct），24Q2 公司毛利率为68.48%（同比-0.12pct），扣非净利率为11.43%（同比+3.60pct）。盈利能力提升主因：①公司持续优化产品结构，对核心产品进行优化升级，高中档酒的销售收入增加；②公司持续开展降本增效活动，确保费用的精准投入和有效使用，有效降低费销比和各项费用。

2）24H1 销售/管理（含研发）费用率为26.83%（同比-3.99pct）/7.93%（同比-1.93pct），24Q2 销售/管理（含研发）费用率为30.14%（同比-4.71pct）/7.09%（同比-1.28pct），销售费用率下降主要系24H1 促销费同比下降26.88%，管理费用率下降主要系24H1 管理费用下的工资薪酬同比-0.16%、股权激励成本同比-32.42%。

3）截止24H1 末，合同负债同比-0.09 亿元至18.62 亿元。

4）24H1 经营性现金流净额同比+32.17%至2.23 亿元，24Q2 经营性现金流净额为-1.87 亿元（23Q2 为-0.85 亿元）。

盈利预测与估值

我们看好公司五大品牌均实现较快增长，叠加费效比提升下的利润率改善，预计2024-2026 年收入增速分别为11.84%/11.95%/12.19%；归母净利润增速分别为30.51%/24.57%/21.42%；EPS 分别为0.95/1.18/1.44 元/股；PE 分别为19.01/15.26/12.57 倍。长期看业绩弹性强，维持买入评级。

风险提示

库存消化进度不及预期；酱酒动销情况不及预期；市场竞争加剧。

Key points of investment

Incident: 24H1 operating income of 2.47 billion yuan (YoY +10.65%); net profit to mother 0.304 billion yuan (+40.25% YoY). 24Q2 revenue was 1.34 billion yuan (YoY +9.00%); net profit to mother was 0.168 billion yuan (YoY +46.69%). Q2 revenue met expectations and profit exceeded expectations.

24H1 premium liquor grew rapidly. More than half of the 24H1 company's 100 yuan or more products achieved revenue of 1.253 and 1.199 billion yuan or less, respectively, of 1.253 billion yuan and 1.199 billion yuan, compared with +19.66% and +12.93%, while premium alcohol (over 100 yuan) accounted for +1.45 pct to 51.10% of revenue.

In 24Q2, the company achieved revenue of 0.726 yuan or more and 0.604 billion yuan respectively, with revenue of +10.45% and +12.70% compared with the same period, while premium alcohol (over 100 yuan) accounted for -0.50pct to 54.59% of revenue.

24H1 Shandong has achieved impressive growth, and all regions have maintained relatively rapid growth

24H1 revenue of Hebei, Anhui, Hunan, Shandong and other provinces was +14.52%, +14.56%, +10.10%, +35.99%, +50.94%. Shandong accounted for +0.49pct, and other provinces accounted for +1.77pct.

In 24Q2, the revenue of Hebei, Anhui, Hunan, Shandong and other provinces was +9.33%, +15.21%, +3.71%, +33.45%, and +50.79%. Shandong accounted for +0.57pct, and other provinces accounted for +1.85pct.

The channel structure continued to be optimized, and the number of dealers in Hebei increased significantly by 24H1 distribution, direct sales (including group purchases), and online sales revenue of 22.91 (+17.82%), 1.29 (+1.25%), and 0.31 (-13.72% year over year) billion yuan, accounting for +1.22pct to 93.47% year-on-year.

24Q2 distribution, direct sales (including group purchases), and online sales revenue was 12.48 (+11.37%), 0.69 (+26.97%), and 0.13 (-28.93%) billion yuan, accounting for -0.08pct to 93.81% of the year-on-year sales revenue.

The number of dealers in Hebei, Shandong, Anhui and Hunan changed +113, -25, +20, and -141 respectively in the first half of the year. The average dealer size of 24H1 companies was +16.51% year-on-year.

Expense control helps increase profits, and advance payment performance is stable

1) The gross margin of 24H1 was 65.84% (YoY -1.33pct), the net profit margin was 11.27% (YoY +2.75pct), 24Q2's gross margin was 68.48% (YoY -0.12pct), and the net profit margin was 11.43% (YoY +3.60pct). The main reasons for improving profitability: ① The company continuously optimizes the product structure, optimizes and upgrades core products, and increases sales revenue for high-grade wines; ② the company continues to carry out cost reduction and efficiency activities to ensure accurate investment and effective use of expenses, and effectively reduce the cost-to-sales ratio and various expenses.

2) The 24H1 sales/management (including R&D) cost rate was 26.83% (-3.99pct)/7.93% (y-1.93pct), 24Q2 sales/management (including R&D) cost ratio was 30.14% (-4.71pct)/7.09% (y-1.28pct). The decrease in sales expense ratio was mainly due to a 26.88% year-on-year decrease in 24H1 promotion fees. The decrease in management expenses was mainly due to a year-on-year decrease of 26.88% in salary and remuneration under 24H1 management expenses compared to -0.16% compared with share incentive costs 32.42%

3) As of the end of 24H1, contract debt was -0.009 billion yuan to 1.862 billion yuan year-on-year.

4) 24H1 net operating cash flow +32.17% to 0.223 billion yuan, 24Q2 net operating cash flow was -0.187 billion yuan (-0.085 billion yuan in 23Q2).

Profit forecasting and valuation

We are optimistic that the company's five major brands will all achieve rapid growth, with improved profit margins. We expect revenue growth rates of 11.84%/11.95%/12.19% for 2024-2026; net profit growth rates of 30.51%/24.57%/21.42%, respectively; EPS of 0.95/1.18/1.44 yuan/share; and PE of 19.01/15.26/12.57 times, respectively. Long-term performance flexibility is strong, and the buying rating is maintained.

Risk warning

Inventory digestion progress fell short of expectations; sales of soy sauce fell short of expectations; market competition intensified.

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老白干酒(600559)：费用管控下利润超预期 高档酒占比过半

Old white dry wine (600559): High-end liquor accounts for more than half of the profits under cost control

Risk Disclaimer

Statement

老白干酒(600559)：费用管控下利润超预期高档酒占比过半