FUTU Morning Post

Futu Morning Post | 25 or 50 basis points rate cut in September? This week's non-farm data may reveal the 'answer'; Tesla will unveil new self-driving Robotaxi at Warner Bros. Studios in China.

Futu News · Sep 2 08:16

热点要闻

9月降息25还是50基点？本周非农数据或将揭晓“答案”

本周五市场将迎来8月非农数据，这将是9月美联储决议前最后一次重磅就业数据，或成为决定降息25还是50基点的关键。由于7月非农就业增长低于预期，失业率创近三年来最高水平。市场普遍预期8月新增就业人数为16.5万人，较上月的11.4万显著回升，最近三个月的平均就业人数增幅将放缓至略高于15 万，为2021年初以来的最小增幅，而失业率可能从4.3%小幅下降至4.2%。

美国7月PCE通胀温和上涨，为下月降息铺平了道路

当地时间上周五，美国商务部经济分析局发布了7月份的PCE物价指数，剔除了波动较大的食品和能源部分的核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.6%，与上月一致，略低于市场预期的2.70%；核心PCE物价指数月率录得0.2%，与上月一致，符合市场预期。作为美联储最青睐的通胀指标——PCE数据在7月份以温和的速度上升，家庭支出保持稳健，为下个月的降息铺平了道路。

哈里斯完全扭转“拜登颓势”：民调全面领先特朗普，优势稳步扩大

近几日更新的一系列美国总统选举民调均显示，“宾州刺杀”事件后一度被认为“稳赢”的特朗普，眼下已经完全处于落后哈里斯的位置了。由于两人的政策取向大相径庭，骤然变化的民调结果，意味着全球各经济体眼下也正处于从“准备特朗普二进宫”转向“研究哈里斯经济政策”的过程中。

美银“大转向”：看多商品、看空美债，关键在本周这个数据

8月初市场大跌时，美银提醒注意关键支撑位，如今随着美联储即将开始降息，美银认为美债或迎来下跌，大宗商品牛市才刚刚开始。美银著名策略师Michael Hartnett在其最新的Flow Show笔记中评论道，看到重新进入长期债券交易的机会，特别是如果ISM制造业指数大于49，或将把30年期债券收益率推高至4.3%以上。

聚焦巨头！景顺、贝莱德相继推出“纳指和标普巨头ETF”

今年以来，美股市场呈现出明显的“头部效应”，巨头股领涨市场。为顺应这一趋势，美国资管巨头纷纷推出聚焦头部公司股票的ETF产品，以吸引投资者目光。继月初提交申请后，景顺也加入战局，计划推出一只名为“景顺Mega QQQ ETF”的新基金，追踪巨头指数(Nasdaq-100 Mega Index) 中权重排名前45%的公司。

特朗普热烈拥抱加密货币，家族数字资产日益壮大

美国总统候选人特朗普现在倡导去中心化金融平台，并承诺将美国打造为世界的“加密之都”，所有人的目光都集中在这位前总统的家人和同事日益壮大的数字资产努力上。最近几周，特朗普和他的两个儿子一直在推广世界自由金融(World Liberty Financial)，这是一个去中心化（ DeFi ）项目，旨在通过使用软件驱动的应用程序消除银行等中介机构。

美股复盘

三大指数齐涨，标普逼近历史新高，纳指涨超1%

美东时间上周五，三大指数集体收涨，道指再创历史新高，标普500指数亦逼近历史高位。截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.55%，标普500指数涨1.01%，纳斯达克指数涨1.13%。

大型科技股普遍上涨，苹果逆市跌0.34%，Meta涨0.60%，微软涨0.97%，谷歌涨0.99%，英伟达涨1.51%，亚马逊涨3.71%，特斯拉涨3.80%。

热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨1.20%，拼多多涨2.88%，阿里巴巴涨2.86%，京东涨2.39%，蔚来汽车涨2.54%，小鹏汽车涨2.29%，网易跌0.11%，理想汽车跌1.17%，爱奇艺跌4.02%。

媒体：特斯拉将在华纳兄弟好莱坞工作室推出Robotaxi

据媒体援引消息人士报道，特斯拉计划在华纳兄弟探索公司位于好莱坞的工作室推出Robotaxi（无人驾驶出租车）。该公司CEO马斯克当时对此表示，特斯拉要花更多的时间，对车辆进行一些设计更改。知情人士透露，特斯拉将于当地时间10月10日在加州伯班克展示专门制造的Robotaxi车辆，选址正是华纳兄弟在当地的工作室。

截至收盘，$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$涨近4%。

英特尔收涨超9%，或分拆出售代工业务

$英特尔 (INTC.US)$上周五收涨9.49%，创2022年10月以来最大单日涨幅，成交38.74亿美元。据知情人士透露，英特尔现在正在与投资银行合作，讨论各种方案，比如包括拆分产品设计和制造业务，以及暂停或取消部分项目，来挽救该公司的财务表现。

美施压阿斯麦停止在华设备维护，专家：美国以安全为由肆意割裂全球产供链

美国彭博社援引匿名知情人士消息报道称，荷兰政府计划限制$阿斯麦 (ASML.US)$为中国客户提供维修和维护半导体设备的服务，导致部分设备最快明年可能就无法运行。此举可能影响中国发展世界顶尖芯片产业的能力。对此，阿斯麦和荷兰政府均拒绝置评。

谷歌将斥资8.5亿美元在拉丁美洲开设第二家数据中心

美国科技巨头$谷歌-C (GOOG.US)$表示，将在南美洲乌拉圭的卡内洛内斯开设其在拉丁美洲的第二个数据中心，并投资超过8.5亿美元。谷歌于2015年在智利首都圣地亚哥附近的奎里库拉开设了其在拉丁美洲的第一个数据中心。当时，该公司在数据中心中投入了1.5亿美元的初始资金，并在2018年额外投入了1.4亿美元用于扩建。

截至收盘，谷歌涨超1%。

据悉高盛年度绩效淘汰启动，将在未来几周裁员数百人

知情人士透露，作为低绩效员工淘汰计划的一部分，$高盛 (GS.US)$计划未来几周裁员数百人。一位消息人士称，裁员人数将占高盛2024年员工总数的3%至4%，其中大部分裁员已在今年早些时候进行。此举旨在控制成本并为吸引新人才腾出空间，是高盛的典型做法。截至今年年中，高盛共有员工44,300人。

巴菲特“清仓式减持”美银：连抛六个交易日，累计套现440亿

自7月中旬以来，“股神”沃伦•巴菲特接连出售美国第二大银行——$美国银行 (BAC.US)$的股票，令其执掌的$伯克希尔-B (BRK.B.US)$庞大的现金储备又增厚了逾60亿美元。根据上周五提交给SEC的一份新文件，伯克希尔哈撒韦在上周三、周四和周五，以40.24美元的均价总计出售了2110万股美国银行股票，套现约8.5亿美元。

截至发稿，美国银行盘后微跌0.17%。

OpenAI据称考虑改变公司结构，或取消投资者的利润上限

据媒体援引消息人士报道，人工智能（AI）研究公司OpenAI正考虑改变公司结构，使其对投资者更加友好，该公司正在推进数十亿美元的融资。据悉，OpenAI尚未就是否改变自身结构做出最终决定，其中一种方案是取消对其营利性子公司现有投资者的利润上限。OpenAI目前通过其营利性子公司为投资者提供股份，该子公司由其非营利性董事会管理。

美股成交额TOP20

港市前瞻

北水加仓腾讯近7亿港元、买入平安近4亿港元，甩卖工行、建行各超4亿港元

8月30日，南下资金净买入港股13.67亿港元。

$腾讯控股 (00700.HK)$、$中国平安 (02318.HK)$、$小米集团-W (01810.HK)$分别获净买入6.81亿港元、3.9亿港元、2.05亿港元；

$工商银行 (01398.HK)$ 、 $建设银行 (00939.HK)$ 、$理想汽车-W (02015.HK)$分别遭净卖出4.79亿港元、4.19亿港元、2.03亿港元。

8月新能源车企成绩单：小米连续3个月超万，理想交付同比增长37.8%

9月1日，$小米集团-W (01810.HK)$、$理想汽车-W (02015.HK)$等新能源车公布8月成绩单。小米SU7交付量超10000台，目前已连续3个月达成破万交付目标，理想汽车8月交付新车48122辆，同比增长37.8%，$零跑汽车 (09863.HK)$是第三家月销破3万的造车新势力。

比亚迪股份8月新能源汽车销量约37.31万辆，同比增加35.97%

$比亚迪股份 (01211.HK)$发布公告，2024年8月，新能源汽车产量约36.7万辆，同比增加28.8%;销量约37.31万辆，同比增加35.97%。1-8月，新能源汽车产量约231.99万辆，同比增加26.57%;销量约232.84万辆，同比增加29.92%。

阿里牵手腾讯，两大巨头再度互联互通

8月30日，国家市场监督管理总局在官网宣布，该部门督导阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司完成三年整改。与此同时，阿里正在再度推动互联互通，冲在前面的是主打下沉市场的淘特。近日，不少用户注意到，淘特APP新增支持微信支付，下单时可跳转至微信支付界面，支付完成后再跳回淘特，使用体验与正常的第三方支付服务无异，而非别扭复杂的扫码支付、发送链接请他人代付等。

今日关注

关键词：财新制造业PMI；美股休市

周一，经济数据方面，中国财新制造业PMI将出炉。

市场方面，美股、加拿大股将由于“劳动节”休市。

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牛牛晨读：

一定要在自己的理解力允许的范围内投资。

——［美］巴菲特

编辑/ping

Hot news

25 or 50 basis points rate cut in September? This week's non-farm payroll data may reveal the "answer".

This Friday the market will usher in August non-farm payroll data, which will be the last heavyweight employment data before the September Fed decision, and may be the key to deciding whether to cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Due to the lower-than-expected growth in non-farm payrolls in July, the unemployment rate reached its highest level in nearly three years. The market generally expects the number of new jobs added in August to be 165,000, a significant increase from the 114,000 last month. The average increase in employment over the past three months will slow to slightly above 150,000, the smallest increase since early 2021, while the unemployment rate may drop slightly from 4.3% to 4.2%.

USA's July PCE inflation rose moderately, paving the way for a rate cut next month.

Last Friday, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis released the July PCE price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, the core PCE price index recorded a 2.6% annual rate, unchanged from the previous month, slightly lower than the market's expectation of 2.70%; the core PCE price index recorded a 0.2% monthly rate, unchanged from the previous month, in line with market expectations. As the Federal Reserve's most favored inflation indicator, PCE data rose moderately in July, with household spending remaining robust, paving the way for a rate cut next month.

Harris completely reverses the "Biden decline": Leading Trump in all polls, with the lead steadily expanding.

A series of updated U.S. presidential election polls in recent days have shown that after the 'Pennsylvania assassination' incident, which was once considered a 'sure win' for Trump, he is now completely trailing Harris. With the two candidates' vastly different policy orientations, the sudden change in poll results means that economies around the world are currently transitioning from 'preparing for Trump's second term' to 'studying Harris' economic policies'.

Bank of America's "big turn": bullish on commodities, bearish on US bonds, the key is this week's data.

At the beginning of August, when the market fell sharply, Bank of America reminded to pay attention to key support levels. Now, with the Fed about to start cutting interest rates, Bank of America believes that US bonds may face a decline and that the bull market in commodities is just beginning. The famous strategist Michael Hartnett of Bank of America commented in his latest Flow Show note that he sees opportunities to re-enter long-term bond trades, especially if the ISM Manufacturing Index is above 49, which could push the 30-year bond yield above 4.3%.

Focusing on giants! Invesco and BlackRock have successively launched "Nasdaq and S&P giants ETF".

比亚迪股份8月新能源汽车销量约0.3731 million辆，同比增加35.97%

President Trump warmly embraces cryptos as the family's digital assets continue to grow.

US presidential candidate Trump currently advocates for decentralized financial platforms and promises to make the US the "crypto capital" of the world. All eyes are on the growing digital asset efforts of his family members and colleagues. In recent weeks, Trump and his two sons have been promoting World Liberty Financial, a decentralized (DeFi) project aimed at eliminating intermediaries such as banks through the use of software-driven applications.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

All three major indices rose, with the S&P 500 approaching a new all-time high and the Nasdaq rising over 1%.

Last Friday, the three major indices closed higher, with the Dow hitting another record high and the S&P 500 approaching a historical high. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.55%, the S&P 500 rose 1.01%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.13%.

Large tech stocks generally rose, with Apple bucking the trend and falling 0.34%, Meta rising 0.60%, Microsoft rising 0.97%, Google rising 0.99%, Nvidia rising 1.51%, Amazon rising 3.71%, and Tesla rising 3.80%.

Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising 1.20%, Pinduoduo rising 2.88%, Alibaba rising 2.86%, JD.com rising 2.39%, Nio Inc rising 2.54%, Xpeng rising 2.29%, NetEase falling 0.11%, Li Auto Inc falling 1.17%, and iQiyi falling 4.02%.

Media: Tesla will launch its Robotaxi at Warner Bros. Hollywood Studio.

According to media reports citing sources, Tesla plans to launch Robotaxi (self-driving taxis) at Warner Bros. Studios in Hollywood. At the time, Tesla CEO Musk stated that Tesla needed more time to make some design changes to the vehicles. Insiders revealed that Tesla will showcase specially manufactured Robotaxi vehicles at the Warner Bros. studio in Burbank, California on October 10th local time.

At the close,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$up nearly 4%.

Intel closed up over 9%, potentially spinning off its manufacturing business for sale.

$Intel (INTC.US)$It rose 9.49% last Friday, the largest single-day increase since October 2022, with a trading volume of $3.874 billion. According to insiders, Intel is currently working with investment banks to discuss various options, such as splitting its product design and manufacturing business, as well as suspending or canceling some projects to improve the company's financial performance.

The US is pressuring ASML to stop equipment maintenance in China. Experts say that the US is recklessly breaking up the global production and supply chain under the guise of safety.

According to anonymous sources cited by Bloomberg, the Dutch government plans to restrict$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$to provide maintenance and repair services for semiconductor equipment to Chinese customers, which may result in some equipment becoming inoperable as early as next year. This move may affect China's ability to develop a world-class chip industry. Both ASML Holding and the Dutch government have refused to comment on this matter.

Google plans to invest $0.85 billion to establish its second data center in Latin America. The center will be located in Canelones, Uruguay, and marks Google's second data center in Latin America. The company initially invested $0.15 billion in its first data center near the Chilean capital, Santiago, in 2015, and made an additional investment of $0.14 billion in 2018 for expansion.

American technology giant$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$Google plans to invest $0.85 billion to establish its second data center in Latin America. The center will be located in Canelones, Uruguay, and marks Google's second data center in Latin America. The company initially invested $0.15 billion in its first data center near the Chilean capital, Santiago, in 2015, and made an additional investment of $0.14 billion in 2018 for expansion.

At the close, Google rose more than 1%.

Goldman Sachs' annual performance elimination plan is rumored to be underway, with hundreds of layoffs expected in the coming weeks.

According to insiders, as part of the low-performance employee elimination plan,$Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$it is planned to lay off hundreds of people in the coming weeks. A source said that the layoffs will account for 3% to 4% of Goldman Sachs' total staff in 2024, with most of the layoffs already taking place earlier this year. This is a typical move by Goldman Sachs to control costs and make room for attracting new talent. As of mid-year, Goldman Sachs had a total of 44,300 employees.

Buffett's "clearing-style reduction" of Bank of America: selling for six consecutive trading days, cashing out a total of $44 billion.

Since mid-July, "Stock God" Warren Buffett has been selling shares of the second largest bank in the United States -$Bank of America (BAC.US)$The stock, institutions under his control$Berkshire Hathaway-B (BRK.B.US)$As of the time of writing, bank of america's stock fell slightly by 0.17% after hours.

Berkshire Hathaway's large cash reserves grew by over $6 billion. According to a new filing submitted to the SEC last Friday, Berkshire Hathaway sold a total of 21.1 million shares of Bank of America stock at an average price of $40.24 on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, cashing out approximately $0.85 billion.

OpenAI is reportedly considering changing its company structure or eliminating the investors' profit cap.

According to media reports citing sources, the AI research company OpenAI is considering changing its corporate structure to be more investor-friendly, and is in the process of raising billions of dollars in financing. It is reported that OpenAI has not made a final decision on whether to change its own structure, and one option is to remove the profit cap for existing investors in its for-profit subsidiary. OpenAI currently offers shares to investors through its for-profit subsidiary, which is managed by its non-profit board of directors.

If you want to play this game, you must believe in yourself and your judgment.

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

Beishui increased its holdings of Tencent by nearly 0.7 billion Hong Kong dollars, bought nearly 0.4 billion Hong Kong dollars of Ping An, and sold more than 0.4 billion Hong Kong dollars of ICBC and China Construction Bank.

On August 30, the net inbound capital into Hong Kong stocks was 1.367 billion Hong Kong dollars.

$TENCENT (00700.HK)$,$PING AN (02318.HK)$,$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$Net purchases of HKD 0.681 billion, HKD 0.39 billion, HKD 0.205 billion respectively.

$ICBC (01398.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$CCB (00939.HK)$N/A.$LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$Net sales of HKD 0.479 billion, HKD 0.419 billion, HKD 0.203 billion respectively.

August electric vehicle performance report: Xiaomi has exceeded 10,000 units for three consecutive months, and the delivery of Ideal has increased by 37.8% year-on-year.

On September 1,$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$,$LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$waiting for the announcement of August performance of new energy vehicles. Xiaomi SU7 delivery volume exceeded 10,000 units, and has achieved the target of over ten thousand deliveries for three consecutive months. Li Auto Inc delivered 48,122 new vehicles in August, a year-on-year growth of 37.8%,$LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK)$becoming the third new force in the monthly sales to break 0.03 million.

BYD's August sales of new energy vehicles reached approximately 0.3731 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35.97%.

$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$Announcement: In August 2024, the production of new energy vehicles reached approximately 0.367 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%; sales reached approximately 0.3731 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35.97%. From January to August, the production of new energy vehicles reached approximately 2.3199 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.57%; sales reached approximately 2.3284 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29.92%.

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Keywords: Caixin Manufacturing PMI; U.S. stock market closed

On Monday, in terms of economic data, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI will be released.

In the market, the U.S. stock market and Canadian stock market will be closed due to Labor Day.

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Futubull Morning News:

Always invest within your own understanding.

- [US] Buffett

Editor/ping

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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