2024 年上半年，公司运营罐容增至518.69 万m?，我们看好持续扩张且资产质地优异的行业龙头，维持“买入”评级。预计2024-2026 年，归属于母公司股东的净利润分别为3.06/3.46/4.16亿元，同比+3.3%/+13.1%/+20.2%，每股收益为0.67/0.76/0.91 元/股，2024 年8 月30 日的收盘价对应PE 分别为16.2/14.3/11.9 倍。Incident: Hongchuan Wisdom released its 2024 semi-annual report. In the first half of the year, the company achieved revenue of 0.736 billion yuan (-4.83% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 0.133 billion yuan (-17.05% YoY), net cash flow from operating activities of 0.468 billion yuan (-13.59% YoY), and basic earnings per share of 0.29 yuan/share (-17.14% YoY).
The decline in revenue from the terminal storage tank business was the main reason for the year-on-year decline in the company's revenue. Revenue from products such as transit and other services, logistics chain management services, and cabin washing and sewage treatment services achieved rapid growth, which had a certain impact on overall revenue performance. In the first half of 2024, due to businesses such as Nantong Yushun, Nantong Yusheng, and Rizhao Hongchuan, which were merged without the same control in October 2023 and May 2024, the company's terminal storage tank business revenue decreased by about 0.048 billion yuan to 0.638 billion yuan year-on-year, and the company's overall revenue decreased by about 0.037 billion yuan. The decline in terminal storage tank business revenue was about 128.2% of the overall revenue decline. The decline in terminal storage tank business revenue was the main reason for the decline in the company's overall revenue. In the first half of 2024, revenue from transit and other services, logistics chain management services, and cabin washing and sewage treatment services increased by 7.3037 million yuan (or +33.17% year over year), 3.5283 million yuan (or +464.11% year over year), and 37.119 million yuan (or +81.19% year over year), respectively, which boosted the overall revenue performance.
Despite the increase in costs and expenses, which led to a decrease in gross margin and net margin, the excellent nature of the company's assets did not change. The merger of enterprises in October 2023 and May 2024 was the main reason for the increase in costs and expenses in the first half of 2024, including operating costs of 0.352 billion yuan (+11.99%), sales expenses of 0.184 billion yuan (+2.22% year over year) and management expenses of 0.717 billion yuan (+7.62% year over year), causing the company's overall gross margin to drop 7.2 percentage points year on year to 52.2%, net profit margin It fell 4.4 percentage points to 19.9%. Despite this, the company's core business, the terminal storage tank business (accounting for 86.7% of the company's overall revenue), still has a gross margin of 51.86%, and short-term performance pressure has not changed the excellent nature of the company's assets.
In the first half of 2024, the company's operating tank volume increased to 5.1869 millionm? We are optimistic about industry leaders that continue to expand and have excellent asset quality, and maintain a “buy” rating. It is estimated that in 2024-2026, net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company will be 0.306/0.346/0.416 billion yuan, respectively, or +3.3%/+13.1%/+20.2%. Earnings per share will be 0.67/0.76/0.91 yuan/share, and PE corresponding to the closing price on August 30, 2024 will be 16.2/14.3/11.9 times, respectively.
Risk warning: Demand continues to fall short of expectations; mergers and acquisitions or self-built chemical warehouses fall short of expectations; risk of hazardous chemical storage accidents; high leverage causes financial risks.
