下调盈利预测，维持“买入”评级。考虑到充电器及适配器业务的竞争加剧以及公司加大投入加速国际化布局，我们上调管理及研发费用率，下调充电器及适配器业务毛利率。我们下调24-26 年归母净利润预测至4.5、6.0、8.0 亿元（原预测5.8、7.3、9.5 亿元），当前市值对应25 年PE 仅12 倍，估值性价比凸显（过去3 年估值中枢为22x），维持“买入”评级。Announcement: In 1H24, the company achieved revenue of 2.96 billion, yoy +46.8%; gross profit margin of 20.7%, yoy-2.53 pcts; net profit due to mother 0.233 billion, yoy +8.46%; net profit without return to mother 0.192 billion, yoy +6.72%. 2Q24's revenue was 1.6 billion, yoy +43.4%, QoQ +17.2%, net profit to mother 0.111 billion, yoy -12.2%, and QoQ -9.82%.
Increase investment in R&D and accelerate international business expansion. 1) 1H24's R&D expenses reached 0.187 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 50%, and the R&D cost ratio reached 6.33%. The international business expanded at an accelerated pace. 1H24's export sales ratio continued to rise to 34.3%, and overseas gross margin increased by 3.19 pcts year-on-year, reaching a record high in recent years. 2) The company has been overseas for eight years. Each manufacturing base has NPI capabilities, and has six global intelligent manufacturing bases: Dongguan Aohai, Zhixin Control, Jiangxi Aohai, India, Aohai, Vietnam, and Aohai, Indonesia.
The fast charging power upgrade is expected to continue to boost the company's product ASP, with downstream applications from 1 to N. 1) By the end of 2023, the maximum charging power of the phone's standard charger had reached 240W, and the maximum wireless charging power had been raised from 50W to 80W. 2) Benefiting from trends such as the Internet of Everything, cordless power tools, the popularity of outdoor camping, and the development of third-party charging brands, the company's charging and storage business is moving from mobile phones to the entire ODM/PC/power tool ecosystem. 3) 1H24's revenue from chargers and adapters reached 2.34 billion, yoy +57.1%, accounting for a gross profit margin of 18.2%; revenue from energy storage and other businesses reached 0.462 billion, yoy +44.4%, accounting for 15.6%, gross profit margin of 35.6%; revenue from electronic control products and solutions for new energy vehicles reached 0.157 billion, yoy -23.5%, accounting for 5.32%, gross profit margin of 14.9%.
The profit forecast was lowered and the “buy” rating was maintained. In view of the increased competition in the charger and adapter business and the company's increased investment to accelerate the international layout, we raised management and R&D expenses and lowered the gross profit margin of the charger and adapter business. We lowered our 24-26 net profit forecast to 0.45, 0.6, and 0.8 billion yuan (the original forecast was 0.58, 0.73, 0.95 billion yuan). The current market value is only 12 times the 25-year PE. The valuation cost ratio is outstanding (the valuation center for the past 3 years is 22x), maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: 1. Market competition increases risk; 2. Risk of fluctuations in raw material prices; 3. Risk of exchange rate fluctuations.
