This week's important schedule overview

• The market is focused on Friday's US non-farm payroll and unemployment rate.

On Friday, September 6th, the US Department of Labor will release the non-farm payroll report for August. It is widely expected that the number of new jobs will be 0.165 million, a significant increase from the 0.114 million last month. The average employment growth over the past three months is expected to slow down to slightly above 0.15 million, the smallest increase since the beginning of 2021. The unemployment rate may slightly decrease from 4.3% to 4.2%.

Citigroup is more pessimistic than the general expectation. Citigroup expects to add 0.125 million jobs in August, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%, roughly the same as July. This will confirm that the relatively weak data in July is not just due to temporary factors, but reflects a real weakening of labor demand, which may lead to a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

The revised annual employment data for the quarter ending in March, which was announced at the end of August, shows a significant downward revision of 0.818 million non-farm jobs. In the past three months, employment growth has been 0.17 million per month, indicating further weakness in the labor market and increasing the possibility of a Fed rate cut.

Goldman Sachs analysts Jan Hatzius, Alec Phillips, David Mericle, and others released a report stating that downward revisions of 0.3 million or 0.025 million per month would be accurate, and the overall pace of job growth is around 0.16 million jobs per month. The data suggested by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) is misleading.

• "Small non-farm" ADP will be released on Thursday.

ADP employment numbers, also known as the "small non-farm", were unexpectedly lower in July, and wage growth fell to its lowest level in three years, signaling a slowdown in the US labor market and further solidifying expectations of a rate cut in September.

Nela Richardson, Chief Economist at ADP, said:

As wage growth slows, the labor market is changing in line with the Federal Reserve's efforts to suppress inflation. If inflation rises again, it will not be because of the labor force.

Economists generally expect that the number of ADP employment in August will increase from the previous value of 0.122 million to 0.148 million, once again releasing signs of a recovery in the job market.

• As the performance season comes to an end, Nio and Broadcom will release their financial reports one after another.

After the Hong Kong stock market closed on Thursday, Nio will announce its Q2 performance report.

• China's Caixin PMI data for August will be released.

On September 2nd, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for August will be released; On September 4th, China's Caixin Services PMI for August will be released.

The official manufacturing PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 31st was 49.1, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. The manufacturing industry's business activity index showed a slight decline, but the PMI for large enterprises remained in expansion, and the non-manufacturing sector's business activity index showed a slight recovery.

Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics' Service Survey Center, explained the August PMI data, stating: "Affected by factors such as recent high temperatures and rainfall, as well as the off-season production in some industries, the manufacturing PMI for August dropped to 49.1%, indicating a slight decline in business activity. Among them, the business activity index for energy-intensive industries was weak and declined significantly, which is one of the main reasons for the decline in the manufacturing PMI this month."

Tao Chuan and Zhong Yumei, analysts at Minsheng Securities, pointed out that behind the marginal decline in the PMI, there are actually various negative impacts from extreme weather (historically high number of hot days in August in many areas) and natural disasters (frequent heavy rainfall, typhoons, etc.), which have magnified the extent of the PMI decline.

Minsheng Securities stated that excluding these short-term factors, the PMI data reveals the continuation of an economic differentiation trend, with the PMI new export orders index gradually surpassing the PMI new orders index, confirming the current situation of "weak domestic demand, strong external demand". Given that there is still some distance from full recovery of demand, we believe that September may be a point for policy easing, although the arrival of policy measures may lean towards gradualism.

• Senior officials from the Federal Reserve will deliver speeches on Friday.

On Friday, September 6th, William Williams, the "Number Three Figure" of the Federal Reserve, FOMC permanent voter, and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Federal Reserve Board Member Lael Brainard will deliver speeches consecutively.

Previously, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell 'dove' during his speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, stating: 'The time for policy adjustments has come. The policy direction has been clarified, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on subsequent data, changes in the outlook, and risk balance.'

Powell's remarks have opened the door to a rate cut in September, and the market has quickly responded, raising expectations for a total rate cut of 104 basis points in 2024. It is predicted that by the end of the year, there will be four rate cuts of 25 basis points each, and by the end of 2025, the rate cut will amount to 213 basis points.

• US and Canadian stocks will be closed on Monday.

US and Canadian stock markets will be closed on Monday for Labor Day.

This week's key performance calendar

September 2, Monday

Keywords: Caixin Manufacturing PMI; U.S. stock market closed

On Monday, in terms of economic data, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI will be released.

In the market, the U.S. stock market and Canadian stock market will be closed due to Labor Day.

Tuesday, September 3rd

Keywords: U.S. PMI; Construction Spending Month-over-Month

In terms of financial data, the final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August, and the Construction Spending Month-over-Month for July in the United States will be released.

In terms of financial reports, $Gitlab (GTLB.US)$ Will announce financial results after the US stock market closes.

Wednesday, September 4th.

Keywords: China Caixin Services PMI; Bank of Canada interest rate decision; US JOLTs Job Openings; US Durable Goods Orders MoM.

In terms of financial data, China's August Caixin Services PMI will be announced, and US Trade Balance, US July Trade Balance, US July JOLTs Job Openings, US July Factory Orders MoM, US July Durable Goods Orders MoM will be released one after another.

In terms of financial events, Bank of Canada will announce the interest rate decision, and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the complete report of the 2024 Q1 Employment and Wage Census (QCEW).

In terms of financial reports, $C3.ai (AI.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE.US)$ Will announce financial results after the US stock market closes.

Thursday, September 5th

Keywords: US August ADP; unemployment claims; US PMI; Beige Book; Nio Inc.; Broadcom

In terms of financial data, the US August ADP employment figures, initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 31st, final US August S&P Global Services PMI, and US August ISM non-manufacturing PMI will be announced successively.

In terms of financial events, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book at 2:00 Beijing time, the State Council Information Office will hold a series of themed press conferences on "Promoting High-Quality Development", and Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, Lui Lei, and Deputy Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Li Hongyan, will attend to introduce the situation and answer questions from reporters.

In terms of financial reports, $NIO Inc (NIO.US)$ Will release financial report ahead of the U.S. pre-market trading, $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ Will announce financial report after the U.S. post-market trading.

Friday, September 6th

Keywords: U.S. non-farm; unemployment rate; williams; warren; credit state-owned enterprise

In terms of financial data, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment in the U.S. for August and the U.S. unemployment rate for August will be released.

In terms of financial events, FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams will deliver a speech, and Fed director Warren will speak on economic outlook.

In terms of new stocks, $SYNTRUST GK (08629.HK)$ Will be listed on the Hong Kong stock market today.

Wishing Mooers a successful week of investment!

Editor/Lambor