分业务看，24H1 基建建设收入3181 亿元，同比-2.74%，主要系国内基建行业增速放缓，毛利率10.63%，同比+0.63pct；基建设计收入173 亿元，同比-10.29%，毛利率18.69%，同比+1.51pct，主要系聚焦设计主业，EPC项目减少；疏浚业务收入269 亿元，同比+3.27%，毛利率11.37%，同比+1.43pct，主要系业务结构调整和项目管控得当所致。综合影响下，公司24H1 综合毛利率11.65%，同比+0.84pct，其中24Q2 毛利率11.42%，同/环比+1.36/-0.48pct 。分地区看， 境内/外收入2878/696 亿元， 同比-7.3%/+23.5%，毛利率分别为12.35%/8.78%，同比+1.29/-0.67pct。24H1 revenue/net profit ratio -2.5%/-0.6% YoY, A/H maintains “buying”
The company 24H1 achieved revenue/net profit due to net profit deducted from mother of 3574/11.4/10.6 billion yuan, -2.5%/-0.6%/-3.0% YoY, 24Q2 achieved revenue of 180.5 billion yuan, -5.0% YoY, net profit/net profit deducted from non-mother of 5.26/4.52 billion yuan, -10.6%/-18.0% YoY, net profit to mother was lower than our expectations (5.8 billion yuan), mainly due to slow investment implementation in the first half of the year . We maintain the company's 24-26 net profit forecast of 25.9/28/30 billion yuan. A/H shares are comparable to the company's 24-year wind consensus average of 5/3xPE. Considering that the company's domestic business focuses on urban renewal, overseas business growth, and strong operational resilience, A/H shares were given 7/4xPE in 24, adjusted the target price for A/H shares to HK$11.13/HK$6.97 (previous value: 14.31/HK$7.01), and maintained the “buy” rating for A/H shares.
The gross margins of all businesses have improved, and overseas revenue has grown at a high rate
By business, 24H1 infrastructure revenue was 318.1 billion yuan, -2.74% year over year, mainly due to a slowdown in the domestic infrastructure industry growth rate, with a gross profit margin of 10.63%, +0.63pct year; infrastructure design revenue of 17.3 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 18.69%, +1.51 pct year on year, mainly focused on the main design industry, and a decrease in EPC projects; revenue from the dredging business was 26.9 billion yuan, +3.27% year on year, gross profit margin 11.37%, year on year + 1.43pct, mainly due to business restructuring and proper project management and control. Under the combined influence, the company's 24H1 comprehensive gross profit margin was 11.65%, +0.84pct year over year, of which 24Q2 gross profit margin was 11.42%, or +1.36/ -0.48pct month-on-month. By region, domestic/foreign revenue was 287.8/69.6 billion yuan, -7.3%/+23.5% year-on-year, and gross margin was 12.35%/8.78%, respectively, and +1.29/-0.67pct year-on-year.
The cost ratio for the period was +0.75pct year on year, and the increase in the pay-to-cash ratio greatly dragged down the 24H1 period expense ratio by 5.7%, and +0.75pct year over year. Among them, the sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratio was +0.13/+0.05/+0.19/+0.40pct year over year. Sales expenses were +44% year over year, mainly due to increased business development; financial expenses were +1.43 billion yuan year over year. On the one hand, debt led to an increase in interest expenses and a decrease in interest income, which led to an increase of 1.2 billion yuan in net interest expenses and a decrease of 0.4 billion yuan year on year on the other hand, exchange earnings decreased by 0.4 billion yuan year on year. The net interest rate for 24H1 was 3.19%, +0.06pct year on year. The depreciation of accounts receivable for individual impairment tests in the first half of the year was prepared to return 0.55 billion yuan, resulting in non-recurring profit and loss +0.26 billion yuan year over year, and 24H1 net interest rate of -0.02pct year-on-year to 2.97% year-on-year. 24H1 net operating cash - 74.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 248 outflows. The payment/payout ratio was 78.4%/100.1%, respectively, +4.3/+17.6 pct.
24H1 new orders +8.4% year over year, new overseas orders +39% year over year
24H1 signed a new $960.9 billion increase of +8.37% year over year. Newly signed infrastructure construction +9.4% YoY, including ports/roads and bridge/railway construction/urban construction +5%/-32%/-33%/+22%; infrastructure design/dredging business/other newly signed 32.7/59.7/5.2 billion yuan, +22%/-4%/-39% YoY. By region, 196.1 billion yuan was newly signed abroad, +39% over the same period last year, accounting for about 20%.
Risk warning: The growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, real estate recovery is lower than expected, and the increase in gross margin falls short of expectations.
