2）货量：2024Q2 箱运量643 万TEU，环比+6.7%、同比+8.2%，其中跨太平洋、亚欧、亚洲内、其他国际、中国大陆分别环比+11.6%、-4.6%、+2%、+1%、+23.5%，同比+7.4%、-20.1%、+11.4%、+6.4%、+34.9%。3）单箱收入：2024Q2综合单箱收入1032 美元/TEU，环比+2.3%、同比+10.4%；国际航线单箱收入1248 美元/TEU，环比+6.5%、同比+18.3%，其中跨太平洋、亚欧、亚洲内、其他国际、中国大陆分别环比+8.5%、+0.4%、+6.6%、+8.6%、-13.8%，同比+40.9%、+41.3%、-1.3%、-1.4%、-26.4%；内贸航线单箱收入2076 元/TEU，环比-13.6%、同比-25.8%。4）单箱成本：2024Q2 集运业务单箱成本约817 美元/TEU，环比-7.6%，同比+1.5%。5）集运利润：2024Q2 集运业务EBIT Margin 为24.9%，环比+7.3pct、同比-2.1pct。The company announced the 2024 semi-annual report: 1) Performance performance: 2024H1 achieved revenue of 101.2 billion yuan, +10.2% year over year; net profit to mother of 16.9 billion yuan, +1.9% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 16.8 billion yuan, +1.8% year over year. Q2 achieved revenue of 52.9 billion yuan, +9.7% month-on-month, +19%; net profit to mother of 10.1 billion yuan, +49.7% month-on-month, +7.2% year-on-year; net profit of 10.1 billion yuan after deduction of non-return mother, +50.1% month-on-month and +7.1% year-on-year. 2) Freight rate performance:
The 2024H1 CCFI index averaged 1,365 points, +34.8% year over year; Q2 CCFI averaged 1,439 points, +11.5% month-on-month and +53.4% year-on-year.
Shipping business: 1) Revenue side: 2024Q2 shipping revenue was 50.9 billion, +9.5% month-on-month, +19.6% year-on-year; of these, trans-Pacific, Asia-Europe, intra-Asia, other international, and mainland China revenue were +21.3%, -4%, +8.9%, +9.8%, +6.7%, +13.7%, +13.7%, +13.7%, +10.8%, +5.6%, and +0.2%, respectively.
2) Cargo volume: 2024Q2 container volume 6.43 millionteU, +6.7% month-on-month and +8.2% year-on-year, of which trans-Pacific, Asia, other international, and mainland China were +11.6%, -4.6%, +2%, +1%, +23.5% month-on-month, +7.4%, -20.1%, +11.4%, +6.4%, +34.9%. 3) Single box revenue: 2024Q2 comprehensive single box revenue of $1,032 per TEU, +2.3%, YoY +10.4%; single box revenue for international routes, $1248 per TEU, +6.5% month-on-month and +18.3% month-on-month, of which trans-Pacific, Asia, other international, and mainland China are +8.5%, +0.4%, +6.6%, +8.6%, -13.8%, YoY +40.9%, +41.3%, -1.4%, -26.4%; domestic trade ticket Revenue 2076 Yuan/TEU, -13.6% month-on-month and -25.8% year-on-year. 4) Single box cost: The cost of a single box in the 2024Q2 shipping business is about 817 US dollars/TEU, -7.6% month-on-month and +1.5% year-on-year. 5) Shipping profit: 2024Q2 shipping business EBIT margin was 24.9%, +7.3pct month-on-month and -2.1pct year-on-year.
Terminal business: 2024Q2 terminal business revenue 2.71 billion, +13.5% month-on-month, +5.5% year-on-year; gross profit 0.83 billion yuan, +25.6% month-on-month, +6.9% year-on-year. The total throughput of the 2024Q2 terminal was approximately 36.6 millionteU, +10% month-on-month and +6.8% year-on-year.
Mid-term dividend plan announced: The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.52 yuan (tax included) per share. The total cash dividend to be paid is estimated to be about 8.3 billion yuan (tax included), which is about 49.2% of the company's 2024H1 net profit to mother.
Order 12 new ships and continuously optimize the fleet structure: The company announced that it will order 12 14,000 TEU methanol dual-fuel powered container ships, with a total price of about 15.3 billion yuan. The delivery period is from May 2027 to March 2029. In the first half of the year, the company delivered 5 24,188 TEU energy-saving ships and 3 14,100 TEU Latin American extreme ships, which were put into the main routes in Asia and Europe and emerging markets in South America respectively. By the end of June 2024, the company's self-operated container fleet had a capacity of 3.24 millionTEU, an increase of 6.5% over the end of 2023, and the fleet size continued to be in the first tier of the industry.
Investment advice: 1) Profit forecast: Considering the current freight rate level and mid-term capacity investment pace under geographical disturbances, we adjusted the profit forecast for 2024-2026 to achieve net profit of 44.1, 20.1, and 19.2 billion yuan (the original forecast was 25.4, 16.8, and 17.5 billion), respectively. The corresponding EPS was 2.76/1.26/1.20 yuan, and the corresponding PE was 5/10/10 times. 2) Investment advice: Under geographical disturbances, freight rates are booming. As the world's leading central enterprise logistics leader, the company has benefited from rising freight rates in the short term. In the long term, it is optimistic that the company's profit center verification and the surge in central enterprise cyclical value after “ship-to-chain” end-to-end transformation.
Risk warning: Import demand from Europe and the US fell sharply, smooth restoration at the end of the detour, large-scale expansion of capacity, etc.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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