Q2 经营压力延续，地产下行叠加消费低迷。上半年国内地产新房成交景气度下行且消费增速放缓，集成灶行业规模整体双位数下滑，据奥维推总数据，24H1 集成灶全渠道零售量、额分别为114 万台、101 亿元，同比分别-15.2%、-18.2%。在整体压力下，行业内竞争加剧，据奥维统计24H1 线上部分集成灶均价同比-10.5%，消毒柜款、中低价位段产品结构占比提升。另一方面，24H1线上集成灶CR5 份额下降至57.3%，同比23H1 下降5.8pct，方太、老板等品牌纷纷加大力度布局。在外部环境承压下，24Q2 亿田收入同比下滑44.4%，降幅环比Q1 持平。分产品来看，24H1 集成灶/其他产品收入分别同比-44.95%/-40.07%。Matters:
The company released its 2024 semi-annual report. 24H1 achieved total operating income of 0.343 billion yuan, or -44.42% year-on-year; net profit to mother of 0.018 billion yuan, -86.12% year-on-year. Looking at a single quarter, 24Q2 achieved total revenue of 0.216 billion yuan, or -44.39% year on year; net profit to mother was 0.013 billion yuan, or -84.82% year over year.
Commentary:
Q2 Operating pressure continues, and the decline in real estate compounded by sluggish consumption. In the first half of the year, domestic new real estate transactions declined and consumption growth slowed, and the overall scale of the integrated stove industry declined by double digits. According to Aowei's total data, the omni-channel retail sales volume and volume of 24H1 integrated stoves were 1.14 million units and 10.1 billion yuan respectively, -15.2% and -18.2% year-on-year respectively. Under overall pressure, competition within the industry intensified. According to Aowei statistics, the average price of some 24H1 online integrated stoves was -10.5% year over year, and the proportion of sterilizer models and medium- to low-end product structures increased. On the other hand, the CR5 share of 24H1 online integrated stoves fell to 57.3%, down 5.8pct from 23H1, and brands such as Fangtai and Boss stepped up their layout. Under pressure from the external environment, 24Q0.2 billion field revenue fell 44.4% year on year, and the decline remained flat compared to Q1. By product, 24H1 integrated stove/other product revenue was -44.95%/-40.07%, respectively.
Competition intensified the decline in average prices, and net interest rates declined markedly. In 24Q2, the company's net profit to mother decreased by 84.8% year-on-year, and the performance was weaker than revenue. In terms of profitability, the company's Q2 gross margin was 42.96%, a year-on-year decrease of 9.84pct, or mainly affected by the increase in the share of low-priced products and price reductions for some models. In terms of expenses, the 24Q2 company's sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were 20.0%/9.3%/6.4%/0.4%, respectively. The year-on-year increase was -1.4/+5.4/+1.8/+1.2pct, respectively. Among them, the increase in the cost ratio was mainly due to a decrease in revenue but some cost expenses were fixed. The contraction in the sales expenses ratio indicates that the company is shrinking its publicity efforts. Under the combined influence, the company's Q2 net sales margin was 6.06%, -16.15pct year on year, and profitability was under pressure.
Improve channel construction and look forward to business restoration. As competition in the industry intensifies, the company continues to improve its channel layout.
On the one hand, maintaining the advantages of traditional distribution channels and improving sales capacity; on the other hand, deepening e-commerce channel business, the total transaction amount of the Tmall + JD platform reached 0.22 billion yuan during the reporting period. In addition, the company is also actively expanding incremental channels such as home improvement, KA, engineering, and sinking markets, focusing on adding service outlets to the sinking channels of new retail, and entering JD Home Appliances, Tmall Premium, etc. New channel construction provides growth impetus for the company, and the channel network is continuously encrypted. Although the overall environment is under pressure in the short term, integration and intelligence are long-term trends in kitchen appliances, and long-term brand and channel construction results are expected.
Investment advice: Considering the significant negative impact of real estate in recent years, we adjusted the company's 24-26 EPS forecast to 0.66/0.76/0.88 yuan (the original value for 24-25 was 2.69/3.16 yuan), and the corresponding PE was 32/28/24 times, respectively. In the long run, the company is expected to maintain its share advantage through channel operation and product innovation, and is looking forward to growth after the pressure. Referring to the absolute valuation method, the company's target price was lowered to 25 yuan, and the “recommended” rating was maintained.
Risk warning: The risk of a sharp downturn in real estate, a sharp increase in market competition, and the risk of macroeconomic fluctuations.
