Incidents:
The company released its 2024 interim report. In the first half of the year, it achieved revenue of 0.658 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 0.094 billion yuan, net profit of 0.094 billion yuan, net profit of non-return to mother of 0.078 billion yuan, and -30.57% year on year; of these, it achieved revenue of 0.364 billion yuan in the second quarter, -14.31% year on year, net profit of 0.05 billion yuan. billion yuan, -36.15% YoY.
The HVAC business is under pressure, and the new energy business continues to grow at a high rate. By business, HVAC business revenue was 0.439 billion yuan, down 32% year on year, and revenue from new energy business was 0.203 billion yuan, up 69% year on year. The decline in the HVAC business is mainly due to negative growth in exports from the heat pump industry against the backdrop of a high base and European countries' slowing progress in green energy plans, while the new energy business has been recognized by mainstream automobile manufacturers in the market as it gradually develops downstream customers. It is used in many mainstream NEV models, and continues the high growth trend.
Fund-raising projects are gradually being implemented, and the share of the new energy business is expected to increase further. As the company's 1.8 million sets of new energy components are gradually put into production, combined with product development in the fields of industrial automation and robotics. At the same time, since the gross margin of the new energy business is higher than the traditional HVAC business, the increase in the share of new energy products will lead to further optimization of profitability.
Empowering industrial automation and robotics, the potential is limitless. During the reporting period, the company increased R&D investment in the field of automation, focusing on key industries and models, giving full play to the experience and advantages of R&D, developing servo products integrating customer customization, industry customization and drive control. Combining in-depth understanding of customer equipment processes, the company reduced costs and increased efficiency through design optimization, provided customers with high-quality solutions, and strived to become a strong growth point for the company in the future. Meanwhile, the company stated on the investor interactive platform that the company's products in the field of humanoid robots are currently in the development stage. Relying on the company's technical accumulation and customer resources in the field of power electronics and motor control, it is expected to gradually open up new downstream fields. We believe that humanoid robots are in the 0-1 explosion stage. According to our estimates, the demand for the industrial scene will reach 3.284 million units by 2030, and the demand for the home & business scenario will reach 0.435 million units, and the overall market size is close to 40 billion US dollars. Therefore, if the company successfully enters downstream customers and achieves supply, it is expected to open up new growth space in the future.
Profit forecast: Optimistic about the company's market position in heat pump controllers and other fields, it is expected to benefit from the explosion of demand in various downstream fields in the future. We expect the company to achieve net profit to mother of 2.95/ 3.72/0.49 billion in 2024-2026, corresponding PE 14/ 11/8 times. The 2025 profit was estimated at 15 times PE, and the target price was 59.2 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Downstream demand falls short of expectations, profit forecasts and valuation judgments fall short of expectations.