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中科飞测(688361):产品布局日趋完善 短期波动不改向好趋势

Zhongke Flying Test (688361): Product layout is improving, short-term fluctuations are not changing to a positive trend

國泰君安 ·  Aug 31

Introduction to this report:

Affected by delivery and product structure, Q2 performance fell short of expectations; under the support of high-intensity R&D, the company's new product layout progressed steadily; testing equipment for key electron beam dimensions was being developed to complete the electron beam circuit.

Key points of investment:

Investment suggestions: 24-year delivery may fall short of expectations and the company increases R&D investment. 24 revenue was reduced to 1.301 billion yuan (previous value 1.351 billion yuan); 24-year EPS was reduced by 0.47 yuan (previous value 0.81 yuan). Light and dark fields are expected to contribute revenue in 25, increasing 25-26 revenue to 1.934/2.845 billion yuan (previous value 1.911/2.596 billion yuan); increasing 25-26 EPS to 1.27/2.08 yuan (previous value 1.24/1.78 yuan). Referring to the company's PS and considering the company's low localization rate and faster future revenue growth rate in the testing process, the company was given 20 times PS in 24 years, and the target price was lowered to 81.31 yuan (previous value: 84.20 yuan) to maintain the shareholding increase rating.

Due to delivery and product structure, Q2 results fell short of expectations. 24H1's revenue was 0.464 billion yuan/ +26.91%, and net profit attributable to mother and net profit without return to mother was -0.068/ -0.116 billion yuan, respectively (0.046/0.002 billion yuan in the same period last year). Single Q2 revenue was 0.228 billion yuan/ +12.07%, net profit attributable to mother -0.102 billion yuan, net profit not attributable to mother -0.123 billion yuan. The 24Q2 gross profit margin was 37.87% /YoY -10.19pct/month-on-month -16.47pct, mainly due to changes in accounting policies that classified guaranteed warranty expenses from the original sales expense caliber into operating cost caliber and changes in the company's product structure. 24H1 net profit margin -14.66% /-27.23pct. In addition to the decline in gross margin, personnel growth led to a sharp increase in three fees. 24H1 R&D costs 0.207 billion yuan/ +114.22%. The main company is currently still in the early stages of expanding its product line. It urgently needs high-intensity R&D investment to achieve key equipment positions and seize the domestic replacement window. Contract debt/inventory at the end of 24H1 was 0.628/1.37 billion yuan respectively, up 23.2%/42.7% month-on-month, respectively, with strong momentum for subsequent growth.

With strong R&D support, the company's new product layout is progressing steadily. 1) Mass-produced products: ① Non-graphic wafer defect detection: The market share of mass-produced models continues to increase, and research and development of more advanced processes is progressing smoothly. ② Graphic wafer defect detection and three-dimensional morphology measurement: increase the layout of advanced packaging fields such as HBM and 2.5/3D, and steadily advance the development of advanced models of products. ③ Film thickness measurement:

Both metals and media are steadily advancing the development of advanced models. ④ Overlay accuracy measurement: Mass production has been achieved and advanced model research and development has been promoted. 2) Products under inspection: ① Bright field: small batch shipment, production line verification for multiple domestic customers; ② Dark field and OCD: Shipped to some customer production line verification.

Testing equipment for key electron beam dimensions is under development to complete the electron beam track. Electron beam critical size inspection accounts for 8.1% of the value of inspection equipment. By completing the electron beam product line, the company will achieve full coverage of the two mainstream tracks of quantitative detection optics and electron beam, fully opening up room for growth.

Risk warning: semiconductor industry cycle fluctuations, domestic substitution, and product delivery falling short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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