资管收入稳步增长，公司预计出售Assetmark 或贡献约8 亿美元收益。公司1H24 资管及基金管理净收入合计同比+4%至27 亿元，其中：1）华泰资管子公司收入同比-12%至8.8 亿元、净利润同比-12%至4.8 亿元，对应资产管理规模同比+11%/较年初+6%至5,060 亿元、其中集合资管规模同比+4%/较年初+11%至591 亿元；2）AssetMark 1H24 收入同比+11%至21 亿元、净利润同比+56%至5.1 亿元，平台资管规模较年初+9.6%至1,194 亿美元，公司公告拟出售所持AssetMark 股权、若交易完成则预计2024 年或贡献约7.96 亿美元收益；3）参股基金公司（计为投资收益）南方基金收入及盈利分别同比-3%/+5%（管理总规模较年初+15%至2.17 万亿元）、华泰柏瑞收入及盈利分别同比+23%/+35%（管理总规模较年初+27%至5,045 亿元）。1H24 results are in line with our expectations
Huatai 1H24's revenue was -5% to 17.4 billion yuan, adjusted revenue (excluding other revenue, mainly commodity sales) -27% to 12.3 billion yuan, net profit to mother -19% to 5.3 billion yuan, annualized ROAE (calculation caliber) -1.8ppt to 6.1% year over year, in line with our expectations; corresponding to 2Q revenue +21% /month-on-month +86% to 11.3 billion yuan, net profit -9% /month-on-month +32% to 3 billion yuan billion yuan, annualized ROAE 6.7%; year-end leverage ratio -0.55x/month-on-month -0.17x to 3.79x. In addition, the company announced an interim cash dividend of 1.35 billion yuan, accounting for 25.5% of the current profit.
Development trends
Asset management revenue is growing steadily, and the company expects to sell Assetmark or contribute approximately $0.8 billion in revenue. The total net revenue of the company's 1H24 asset management and fund management was +4% to 2.7 billion yuan, of which: 1) Huatai Asset Management's revenue was -12% to 0.88 billion yuan, net profit -12% to 0.48 billion yuan, and the corresponding asset management scale was +11% YoY/+6% to 506 billion yuan at the beginning of the year, of which the consolidated asset management scale was +4% YoY /11% compared to the beginning of the year; 2) AssetMark 1H24 revenue YoY + 11% to 2.1 billion yuan, net profit +56% to 0.51 billion yuan, and the platform's asset management scale was +9.6% to 119.4 billion US dollars at the beginning of the year. The company announced that it plans to sell its AssetMark shares and is expected to contribute about 0.796 billion US dollars in revenue in 2024 if the transaction is completed; 3) participating fund companies (calculated as investment income) China Southern Fund's revenue and profit, respectively, -3%/+5% (total management scale +15% to 2.17 compared to the beginning of the year) (trillion yuan), Huatai Berry's revenue and profit were +23%/+35%, respectively (total management scale was +27% to 504.5 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year).
Revenue from brokerage and investment banking businesses fluctuates from market to market. 1) Net income of 1H24 brokerage was -14% to 2.7 billion yuan (securities brokerage -12% /futures broker -33%). In securities brokerage: net income from securities trading agents was -9% to 1.9 billion yuan, trading unit seat rental income -10% to 0.36 billion yuan, and revenue from consignment financial products -28% to 0.25 billion yuan. 2) The revenue of 1H24 investment banks was -42% to 0.93 billion yuan, stock underwriting increased slightly by -73% /market share, and bond underwriting decreased slightly compared to the same period of -5% /market share.
Net interest income grew steadily, with 1H24 +11% year-on-year to 0.71 billion yuan (interest income -6% /interest expense -7%), of which interest income from the two loans was -13% to 3.5 billion yuan, and the balance of financing capital was -2%.
Investment income declined from a year-on-year high base. The company's 1H24 investment income (investment income+fair value change+exchange profit and loss - joint venture and joint venture investment) was -40% to 4.4 billion yuan; if interest income from debt investments & other debt investments were taken into account, -34% to 5.5 billion yuan, the return on investment in annualized comprehensive financial assets was -1.4ppt to 2.4% year-on-year.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Taking into account declining market activity and investment fluctuations, profit for 24/25 was reduced by 16%/16% to 11.5/12.9 billion yuan. Currently, A shares correspond to 24e 0.7x P/B, and H shares correspond to 24e 0.4x P/B (all excluding perpetual debt); A shares maintain the industry rating, lowering the target price by 11% to $17, corresponding to 24e 1.0xp/b and 35% upward space; H shares maintain the outperforming industry rating, lowering the target price by 5% to HK$11.8, corresponding to 24e 0.6x P/B and 37% upward space (A/H shares target P/B excludes perpetual bonds).
risks
The risk of market fluctuations, regulatory policy uncertainty, and business transformation and development falling short of expectations.
