业绩符合预期 ，维持增持评级。2024年上半年，公司实现营业收入1427.8 亿元，同比下降 28.9%；归母净利润亏损 98.5 亿元，同比下降 199.8%。鉴于除深铁集团外，多家深圳国企通过大宗交易、REITs 认购、项目合作等方式支持万科。此外公司也围绕“保交房，保兑付，转型高质量发展”三大主线开展工作，聚焦主赛道，推动企业尽快重回健康发展轨道，因此维持增持评级。维持2024/2025/2026年EPS 分别为0.74/0.82/0.65 元，维持目标价11.53 元，对应2024年0.53X PB。Introduction to this report:
The settlement scale and gross margin of real estate development projects continued to decline in the first half of the year. Coupled with the calculation of various types of depreciation totaling 4.18 billion yuan, etc., the company lost its performance.
Key points of investment:
The performance was in line with expectations, and the rating for increasing holdings was maintained. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 142.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.9%; net profit loss to mother was 9.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 199.8%. In addition to the Shenzhen Railway Group, many Shenzhen state-owned enterprises support Vanke through bulk transactions, REITs subscriptions, and project cooperation. Furthermore, the company is also working around the three main lines of “housing guarantee, payment guarantee, transformation and high-quality development”, focusing on the main track to push the enterprise back to a healthy development path as soon as possible, and therefore maintain an increase in holdings rating. Maintain the 2024/2025/2026 EPS at 0.74/0.82/0.65 yuan, respectively, and maintain the target price of 11.53 yuan, corresponding to 0.53X PB in 2024.
Due to the high prices obtained before 2022, the gross settlement margin continued to decline. In addition, various types of depreciation were calculated at 4.18 billion yuan. The main reasons for the company's performance loss are as follows: 1) The settlement scale and gross margin of real estate development projects continued to decline. The gross margin for development and settlement in the first half of 2024 fell by 13.5 pcts to 6.8% compared to the same period in 2023. Most of these projects were high-priced land obtained before 2022; 2) Preparing 2.1 billion yuan (including 0.17 billion yuan for non-consolidated projects), and accruing credit impairment losses of 2.1 billion yuan on corresponding receivables; 3) Some non-main Financial investment in the industry lost money; 4) In order to return funds more quickly, the company accelerated asset transactions and equity disposal, and some transaction prices were lower than book value.
The new commencement fell short of expectations, and completion was on schedule. The planned area for new construction and resumption of work in the first half of the year was about 4.12 million square meters, completing 38.4% of the plan at the beginning of the year (71.5% for the same period in 2023); the completed planned area was about 8.6 million square meters, completing 39.0% of the plan at the beginning of the year (40.0% for the same period in 2023).
The intensity of land investment continues to be low, and inventory removal continues to be promoted. The company only added 3 plots in the first half of the year, and the average land price for the new projects was 3,944 yuan/square meter. The company's current inventory value is 620.4 billion yuan, down 11.6% from the end of 2023. Among them, the products to be developed are 91.3 billion yuan, accounting for 14.7%; the products under construction are 421.4 billion yuan, accounting for 67.9%; and the finished products (existing buildings) are 104.7 billion yuan, accounting for 16.9%. Within the scope of policy approval, the company continues to promote the revitalization of existing resources through commercial conversion and resource replacement.
Risk warning: Management dividends have been slow to materialize, while the original development business has been drastically slowed down.
