维持“增持” 评级。2024H1 公司营收1633 亿元，同比降4.10%；归母净利润45.45 亿元，同比降0.17%；2024Q2 归母净利润26.18亿元，环比增35.93%，业绩符合预期。考虑行业需求仍偏弱，下调2024-2025 年归母净利润预测至120.86/128.37 亿元（原127.46/139.88亿元），新增2026 年归母净利润预测137.34 亿元，对应EPS 为0.55/0.58/0.62 元。但参考可比公司，给予公司2024 年0.75 倍PB 进行估值，仍维持目标价7.19 元，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
As a leading steel company, the company has strong competitive advantages in product structure and cost management. In the downward cycle of the industry, the company will continue to maintain an industry-leading profit level.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. 2024H1's revenue was 163.3 billion yuan, down 4.10% year on year; net profit to mother was 4.545 billion yuan, down 0.17% year on year; 2024Q2 net profit to mother was 2.618 billion yuan, up 35.93% month-on-month, and performance was in line with expectations. Considering that industry demand is still weak, the 2024-2025 net profit forecast was lowered to 12.086/12.837 billion yuan (originally 12.746/13.988 billion yuan), and the 2026 net profit forecast was added to the 2026 net profit forecast of 13.734 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.55/0.58/0.62 yuan. However, referring to comparable companies, the company was valued at 0.75 times PB in 2024, and the target price was maintained at 7.19 yuan, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Withstand downward pressure on the industry and maintain leading profitability. 2024H1 sold 25.514 million tons of steel, slightly down 0.048 million tons from 2023H1; gross profit per ton of steel was 172.92 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 16.70% from the average gross profit per ton in 2023. According to Mysteel data, the average profit rate of 247 steel companies in the first half of 2024 was 37.23%, down 3.71 percentage points from the average profit margin in 2023. More than 60% of steel companies still maintained losses; in comparison, the profit level of the company's tons of steel remained at the leading level in the industry. The company has strong competitive advantages in product structure, cost management, etc., and is expected to continue to maintain leading profit levels during the downward cycle of the industry.
The product structure is continuously optimized. In terms of silicon steel, the 0.55 million tons/year new energy non-oriented silicon steel structure optimization project and 220,000 tons/year high-end oriented silicon steel green manufacturing structure optimization project at the Baoshan base, the 0.2 million ton/year non-oriented silicon steel product structure optimization (three-step) project at the Baoshan base, and the ultra-high grade oriented silicon steel green manufacturing demonstration project are all underway; in terms of plates, the 1.8 million tons/year zero-carbon high-grade silicon steel sheet factory project and thick plate variety expansion and transformation project at the Dongshan base are also under construction. With the above projects put into operation, the company's production of high-value-added products such as silicon steel, high-grade thin plates, and thick plates will continue to increase, which is expected to further enhance its profitability.
Continue to explore the potential to reduce costs and consolidate the advantages of green and low-carbon development. 2024H1 reduced costs by 4.55 billion yuan in terms of improving efficiency, economical furnace materials, energy consumption, and strict cost control. Among them, variable costs were reduced by 2.57 billion yuan, fixed costs were reduced by 1.21 billion yuan, period costs were reduced by 6.6 yuan, and raw material procurement flows were reduced by 0.11 billion yuan. The company continued to take advantage of cost reduction to resist downward pressure on industry profits. Furthermore, in terms of green and low carbon, the energy efficiency ratio of 2024H1's key processes reached 89.2%, of which Baoshan and Dongshan bases can reach 100%. The company has formed a differentiated competitive advantage in terms of low carbon, and will benefit from stricter environmental protection policies.
Risk warning: Demand for sheets has dropped significantly, and the price of silicon steel has dropped sharply.
