集装箱航运业务收入同比+10.41%，设备及货物运输成本同比+20.4%分业务来看，24H1 集装箱航运业务收入约974.77 亿元，同比+10.41%，毛利率约22.86%，同比+1.37pct；码头业务收入50.91 亿元，同比+4.95%，毛利率约29.39%，同比-0.29pct。其中，集装箱航运业务按照航线收入划分，跨太平洋、亚欧、亚洲区内、其他国际（含大西洋）、中国大陆收入占比分别为31%、22%、26%、15%和6%。Key points of investment
The company released its 2024 semi-annual report. In Q2, the company achieved net profit of 10.1 billion yuan and 24H1. The company achieved operating income of 101.2 billion yuan, +10.19% year over year, achieved net profit of 16.87 billion yuan, +1.87% year over year, and realized net profit without return to mother of 16.82 billion yuan, or +1.81% year over year.
Among them, 24Q2 achieved operating income of 52.931 billion yuan, +18.97% year over year, realized net profit of 10.115 billion yuan, +7.23% year over year, and realized net profit of 10.096 billion yuan without return to mother, or +7.09% year over year.
Container shipping business revenue +10.41% YoY, equipment and cargo transportation costs +20.4% YoY. Looking at the 24H1 container shipping business revenue was about 97.477 billion yuan, +10.41% YoY, gross margin of about 22.86%, +1.37pct year on year; terminal business revenue was 5.091 billion yuan, +4.95% YoY, gross margin of about 29.39%, YoY -0.29pct. Among them, the container shipping business was divided according to route revenue, accounting for 31%, 22%, 26%, 15%, and 6% of revenue across the Pacific, Asia Europe, Asia region, other international (including the Atlantic), and mainland China, respectively.
In terms of cost composition, the 24H1 route cost about 9.652 billion US dollars, +5.0% year on year. Equipment and cargo transportation costs, voyage costs, and ship costs were +20.4%, -2.9%, and -12.4%, respectively, accounting for 51%, 27%, and 22%, respectively.
Operating conditions: Q2 foreign trade route single box revenue +18.29% year on year, domestic trade line revenue -25.78% Q2 The company's container shipping business revenue was about 6.641 billion US dollars, +19.49% year on year. Among them, the revenue of a single box on foreign trade routes was 1,248 US dollars/standard box, +18.29% year on year, and domestic trade routes earned 2,076 yuan/standard box, -25.78% year on year. Q2 Company achieved a freight volume of 6.432 million TEU, +8.25% YoY, and achieved a terminal throughput of 36.596 million TEU, or +6.80% YoY.
Capacity situation: Capacity of about 3.24 million TEU, order capacity 0.57 million TEU as of 24q2, the company's self-operated container fleet was 527, with a capacity exceeding 3.24 million TEU, +6.5% compared to the beginning of the year. Among them, 255 owned and chartered ships had a capacity of about 2.43 million TEUs, accounting for about 75%; the total order capacity was 29 ships, with a total capacity of nearly 0.57 million TEUs. The average age of a ship is 12.9 years, and the average capacity of a single ship is 6150 TEUs, +1.5% compared to the beginning of the year.
It plans to pay an interim dividend of $0.52 per share in cash, with an interim dividend rate of about 49.2%. The company announced that it plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 0.52 (tax included) per share, totaling approximately RMB 8.3 billion, or about 49.2% of net profit returned to mother in the first half of the year. According to the company's three-year shareholder dividend return plan, the total cash dividend distributed in the year 2022 to 2024 should account for 30% to 50% of the company's consolidated net profit for the year.
Profit forecasting
Since 2024, with the rise in freight rates, the company's performance may experience another significant increase. In 2024-2026, the company is expected to achieve operating income of 281.2 billion yuan, 22.76 billion yuan and 236.7 billion yuan, and net profit to mother of 46.8 billion yuan, 26.3 billion yuan, and 26.3 billion yuan, respectively, +96.33%, -43.94%, and +0.21% year-on-year, respectively. Corresponding PE is 4.27, 7.61, and 7.59 times, respectively, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning
Geopolitical risks, risk of demand falling short of expectations, etc.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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