2024H1，受公司海外逆变器出货增加拉动，光伏逆变器业务实现营收13.83 亿元，同比+6.20%；储能双向变流器及系统集成业务实现营收5.07 亿元，同比-37.96%，主要系储能系统集成收入减少所致；上半年公司实现海外收入4.75 亿元，同比大幅增长115.46%，占公司营收比重由去年同期的10.12%提升至24.65%。Incidents:
The company released its 2024 mid-year report. 2024H1 achieved revenue of 1.926 billion yuan, or -11.53% YoY; net profit to mother of 0.161 billion yuan, +18.90% YoY. Q2 In a single quarter, the company achieved revenue of 1.215 billion yuan, -21.98% YoY, +70.74% month-on-month; realized net profit of 0.11 billion yuan to mother, +11.12% YoY and +114.52% month-on-month.
Higher overseas revenue boosts performance
2024H1, driven by the company's increased overseas inverter shipments, achieved revenue of 1.383 billion yuan, +6.20%; the energy storage bidirectional converter and system integration business achieved revenue of 0.507 billion yuan, or -37.96% year-on-year, mainly due to a decrease in energy storage system integration revenue; in the first half of the year, the company achieved overseas revenue of 0.475 billion yuan, a significant increase of 115.46% over the previous year, accounting for the share of the company's revenue from 10.12% in the same period last year to 24.65%.
Accelerate overseas combined R&D cost reduction, and gross margin increased markedly
Thanks to 2024H1, the company's gross margin of photovoltaic inverters increased by 2.61 pct to 22.46% year on year due to increased share of overseas revenue and continued high R&D investment to drive technology cost reduction. In addition to the above measures, due to a decrease in the revenue share of the low margin energy storage system integration business, the gross margin of the company's energy storage business increased 10.85 pcts to 22.67% year on year. The company's overall gross sales margin increased by 5.62 pct year on year, and net sales margin increased by 2.10 pct year on year.
We expect profitability to increase further as the company further promotes overseas expansion and the forwarding of R&D results.
Emerging markets and stock replacement resonate, and the company's performance is expected to continue to grow. Since 2024, demand for new energy in many emerging markets will be released. Many countries in the Middle East seek to reduce their dependence on oil and have launched a series of large-scale PV bidding programs; the governments of India, Brazil, and Chile have all introduced a series of policies to stimulate PV demand. The demand for inverter replacement is also gradually increasing. According to Wood Mackenzie, the world is expected to have a service life of more than ten years for 176 GW photovoltaic inverters in 2024. The company ranked fourth in global PV inverter shipments in 2023. It has been deeply involved in overseas markets for many years, and is expected to fully benefit from the market opportunities brought about by emerging and stock replacement demand resonance.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
Despite the decline in revenue from the company's energy storage system integration business, we expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be 6.815/8.693/10.906 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.16%/27.56%/25.46%; net profit to mother is 0.525/0.752/1.06 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 83.49%/43.41%/40.91%, respectively; EPS is 1.46/ 2.10/2.96 yuan/share, 3-year C AGR is 54.78%. Given that the company's accelerated overseas expansion is expected to lead to a sharp rise in volume profit, it maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: 1) Increased competition in the industry; 2) large fluctuations in raw material prices; 3) Changes in overseas trade policies.
