24H1 net profit of 1.17 billion yuan/YoY +504%, maintaining the “buy” rating, Luxi Chemical released its 24-year semi-annual report on August 28. 24H1 achieved revenue of 14.04 billion yuan, +22% YoY, net profit 1.17 billion yuan (1.21 billion yuan after deduction), +504% YoY (+589% after deduction); of which 24Q2 net profit was 0.6 billion yuan (not 0.63 billion yuan after deduction) ), +570% YoY +6.2% YoY (+589% YoY +8% after deduction). We expect the company's net profit to be 2.09/2.47/2.89 billion yuan for 24-26, corresponding EPS of 1.09/1.29/1.51 yuan. Combined with comparable company Wind's 24-year average PE average expected value of 12 times, the company will be given 12xPE for 24 years, with a target price of 13.08 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Butyl octanol/nylon 6 boomed well in the first half of the year. According to Baichuan Yingfu, the average price of 24H1 butanol/octanol/PC/PA6/ 99% caustical/DMF/dichloromethane/formic acid was 0.84/1.01/1.57/1.47/0.32/0.0047/0.0025/0.0028 million yuan/ton, +11%/+13%/0%/+9%/-12%/-13%/-6%/-23%, butyl octanol/PA6 is relatively prosperous, superposition subsidiary The 23H1 installation accident affected the start of construction, and the 24H1 installation increased, helping to increase profits. 24H1 new material chemicals/basic chemicals/fertilizer revenue was +43%/-16%/+9.5% to 9.5/2.8/1.5 billion yuan, respectively, and gross margin was +15pct/-6.2pct/+1.2pct to 21%/13%/7.4% year-on-year. 24H1 comprehensive gross margin yoy+7.9pct to 18%, and the subsidiary Lucy Polyol/Chloromethane Chemical/Formic Acid Engineering/Methylamine Chemicals/Polycarbonate/Polyamide New Materials has a net profit of 9.0/0.63/0.68/-0.029/-0.065/0.026 billion yuan.
The main products are expected to recover from the bottom, and the increase in projects will help growth
According to Baichuan Yingfu, on August 28, butanol/octanol/PC/PA6/ 99% caproxy/DMF/dichloromethane/formic acid prices were 0.71/0.80/1.6/0.3/0.0042/0.0027/0.0024 million yuan/ton, respectively, -17%/-38%/+3%/-6%/-5%/-15%/+7%/-11%. Currently, the market for most main products is still relatively low for nearly 5 years, and the low price competition pattern is expected to be optimized in the future as demand recovers. The economy is likely to improve. At the end of 24Q2, the company's construction project was 8.5 billion yuan, an increase of 1.04 billion yuan over the beginning of the year. The company also announced that the controlling shareholder plans to allocate 0.47 billion yuan of state capital to support the company's capital expenses in the form of commissioned loans, including caprolactame-nylon 6 projects, silicone projects, bisphenol A projects, etc. With the release of new projects, the scale advantage is expected to increase.
Risk warning: downstream demand falls short of expectations; progress of new projects falls short of expectations; raw material prices fluctuate greatly.
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