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新興市場見通し:200日線が上値抵抗に、消去法的な超低位銘柄の物色は継続か

Emerging markets outlook: The 200-day moving average is acting as resistance, will the search for low-priced stocks continue through the process of elimination?

Fisco Japan ·  Aug 31 12:52

Mainboard stocks showed strong movements at the beginning of the week.


This week, emerging markets saw a significant increase. During the same period, while the Nikkei average was +0.74%, the growth market index was +4.09% and the growth market 250 index was +4.45%, highlighting the rise of the emerging markets. Although the trading volume continued to be in the 100 billion yen range and business did not increase, the index rose due to the strong movements of major stocks with large market capitalization at the beginning of the week. The growth market 250 index reached the 200-day moving average line, the first time since July 19. Subsequently, there was a strong trend of profit-taking due to a sense of achievement, but with the improvement in investor sentiment, the trend became steady.


In the top market capitalization stocks, GNW Group <2160> announced a business tie-up with Japan Asia Investment and saw a significant increase, in addition to GENDA <9166> updating its all-time high for the second consecutive day. Free <4478> and Cover <5253> also saw buying opportunities. In addition, nationwide speculation buying of Amefurutaiyo <5616> due to the shortage of rice, and strong inflows of short-term funds into the ultra-low stock Flutter Flutter <2586> continued to drive a significant increase. On the other hand, biotechnology-related stocks of the ultra-low stocks, Anges <4563>, Oncotherapy Science <4564>, and Solasia Pharma <4597>, saw significant outflows of short-term funds and a substantial decline. Cross E Holdings <231A>, which was listed on the Fukuoka Stock Exchange Q-Board on August 29, started below the public offering price.

Relatively, there is less interest in the emerging markets.


There is a possibility that the emerging markets may take a breather next week. With the Nikkei average breaking through the 75-day moving average resistance and attempting to recover in the 39,000 yen range at the beginning of the week, attention is likely to turn to the prime market. With the start of the September market, interest in high-dividend stocks and special favor stocks via NISA, mainly by individual investors, tends to increase, making it relatively difficult for interest to be directed towards the emerging markets. The growth market 250 index was once rejected at the 200-day moving average line, so the assumption is to first attempt to consolidate at this level. In a market environment where short-term funds are flowing in and out of ultra-low stocks priced in double digits, it is difficult for prices to break above the 200-day moving average line.


As trading volume does not expand, the focus continues to be on ultra-low stocks priced in double digits. Flutter Flutter, after sharply dropping to 25 yen on August 5 and reaching 137 yen on the 28th, saw an increase of over 5 times in August's high and low. There is still a continued search for ultra-low stocks, including biotech-related stocks with volatile movements, as the 'overdone feeling' is strong.


On the other hand, attention is drawn to the main stocks such as GNW Group and GENDA, which moved this week, spreading to other main stocks such as Free <4478> and Integral <5842>. At the beginning of this week, there was a slight upward movement of main stocks pushing up the entire emerging market. With a lack of excitement in trading volume, it is difficult for main stocks to collectively rise, but if cyclic trading of main stocks can be confirmed, investor sentiment is expected to improve further.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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