从产品结构来看，24H1 年份原浆/古井贡酒/黄鹤楼及其他分别实现营收107.9/12.4/14.0 亿元，同比+23.1%/+11.5%/+26.6%，其中销量分别+16.6%/+11.5%/+3.6%，吨价分别+5.6%/持平/+22.2%至25.7/6.9/10.3 万元/吨，毛利率分别+1.2%/-3.0%/+6.4%至86.3%/56.2%/72.1%。公司整体产品结构仍在向上，带动吨价及毛利率提升。Brief performance review
On August 30, 2024, the company disclosed its 24-year report. 24H1 achieved revenue of 13.81 billion yuan, +22.1% year-on-year; net profit to mother of 3.57 billion yuan, +28.5% year-on-year. Among them, 24Q2 achieved revenue of 5.52 billion yuan, +16.8% year-on-year; net profit to mother of 1.51 billion yuan, +24.6% year-on-year, in line with market expectations.
Management analysis
Looking at the product structure, 24H1 pure/Gujing Gongjiu/Huanghelou and others each achieved revenue of 10.79/1.24/1.4 billion yuan, +23.1%/+11.5%/+26.6% compared to the same period, with sales volume of +16.6%/+11.5%/+3.6%, tonnage price +5.6% /flat/+22.2% to 0.257/0.069/0.103 million/ton, gross margin of +1.2%/-3.0%/+6.4% to 86.3% /56.2 %/ 72.1%. The company's overall product structure is still improving, driving higher tonnage prices and gross margins.
From a regional perspective, 24H1 North China/South China/Central China achieved revenue of 1.11/0.82/11.87 billion yuan, respectively, +35.1%/+17.2%/+21.3% year over year; the number of dealers at the end of 24H1 was +64/+37/+45 at the end of 23 to 1288/630/2848, respectively. The province consolidates the basic performance market of the company and focuses on the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day repayment rhythm. If the pace accelerates outside the province, it can also drive the company's overall product structure optimization pace.
On the profit side, 24Q2 net profit margin was +1.7 pct to 27.3% year on year, with gross margin of +2.7 pct to 80.5% contributing to core performance elasticity, sales expenses ratio +0.3 pct, tax and additional +1.5 pct. Furthermore, the sharp increase in 24H1 interest income led to an increase in profit. In terms of delivery quality, the balance of contract debt at the end of 24Q2 was 2.22 billion yuan, -2.4 billion yuan month-on-month. Considering △ contract debt+revenue narrowly repayment +4% YoY; 24Q2 sales revenue was 5.88 billion yuan, +12.8% YoY. Overall, the performance and quality of the company's statements are good. The current repayment schedule is similar compared to the same period. The base market is solid, and fluctuations in industry sentiment continue to be highlighted, benefiting from leading advantages.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
Considering the weak recovery in industry sentiment, we lowered the company's 25-26 net profit of 5%/6%, and expected revenue for 24-26 to +20.9%/+18.2%/+16.3%; +26.7%/+23.4%/+20.8%, corresponding net profit to mother of 5.82/7.17/8.67 billion yuan respectively; EPS was 11.00/13.57/16.40 yuan. The current price of the company's stock corresponds to the PE valuation of 15.6/12.7/10.5 times, respectively, and maintain “buying” “Enter” rating.
Risk warning
Macroeconomic recovery fell short of expectations, competition in regional markets intensified, nationalization fell short of expectations, and food safety risks.
