China's macroeconomics

China's official manufacturing PMI in August was 49.1, with increased operating pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises, and the high-tech manufacturing industry returned to the expansion range.

wallstreetcn · Aug 31 15:01

8月份，国内制造业景气水平小幅回落，但大型企业制造业PMI保持扩张，且非制造业景气水平略有回升。

8月31日国家统计局发布数据显示，8月份制造业采购经理指数为49.1%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，制造业景气度小幅回落。

非制造业商务活动指数为50.3%，比上月上升0.1个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.1%，比上月略降0.1个百分点，我国经济景气水平总体保持稳定。

国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河解读8月PMI数据时表示：

受近期高温多雨、部分行业生产淡季等因素影响，8月份制造业PMI降至49.1%，景气水平有所回落。
从重点行业看，高技术制造业和装备制造业PMI分别为51.7%和51.2%，比上月上升2.3和1.7个百分点，重返扩张区间；消费品行业PMI为50.0%，位于临界点；高耗能行业PMI为46.4%，比上月下降2.2个百分点，高耗能行业景气水平偏弱且降幅较大，是本月制造业PMI回落的主要原因之一。
大型企业PMI为50.4%，比上月略降0.1个百分点，今年以来始终位于临界点以上，持续发挥支撑引领作用。中、小型企业PMI分别为48.7%和46.4%，比上月下降0.7和0.3个百分点，中小型企业生产经营压力有所加大。

制造业PMI小幅回落

8月，制造业采购经理指数为49.1%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，制造业景气度小幅回落。

从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为50.4%，比上月下降0.1个百分点，仍高于临界点；中、小型企业PMI分别为48.7%和46.4%，比上月下降0.7和0.3个百分点。

从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数、新订单指数、原材料库存指数、从业人员指数和供应商配送时间指数均低于临界点。

生产指数为49.8%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，低于临界点，表明制造业企业生产活动有所放缓。
新订单指数为48.9%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所回落。
原材料库存指数为47.6%，比上月下降0.2个百分点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量较上月减少。
从业人员指数为48.1%，比上月下降0.2个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度有所下降。
供应商配送时间指数为49.6%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，仍低于临界点，表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间继续延长。

非制造业景气水平略有回升

8月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.3%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，非制造业景气水平略有回升。

分行业看，建筑业商务活动指数为50.6%，比上月下降0.6个百分点；服务业商务活动指数为50.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点。从行业看，铁路运输、航空运输、邮政、电信广播电视及卫星传输服务、文化体育娱乐等行业商务活动指数均位于55.0%以上较高景气区间；资本市场服务、房地产、居民服务等行业商务活动指数低于临界点。

新订单指数为46.3%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，表明非制造业市场需求景气度有所改善。分行业看，建筑业新订单指数为43.5%，比上月上升3.4个百分点；服务业新订单指数为46.8%，比上月上升0.1个百分点。

投入品价格指数为48.6%，比上月下降1.8个百分点，表明非制造业企业用于经营活动的投入品价格总体水平有所回落。分行业看，建筑业投入品价格指数为47.6%，比上月下降2.3个百分点；服务业投入品价格指数为48.8%，比上月下降1.7个百分点。

销售价格指数为47.2%，比上月下降1.0个百分点，表明非制造业销售价格总体水平继续下降。分行业看，建筑业销售价格指数为48.1%，比上月下降1.2个百分点；服务业销售价格指数为47.1%，比上月下降0.9个百分点。

从业人员指数为45.2%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，表明非制造业企业用工景气度下行。分行业看，建筑业从业人员指数为41.0%，比上月上升0.8个百分点；服务业从业人员指数为45.9%，比上月下降0.5个百分点。

业务活动预期指数为55.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，仍位于较高景气区间，表明非制造业企业对市场发展保持乐观。分行业看，建筑业业务活动预期指数为54.7%，比上月上升1.8个百分点；服务业业务活动预期指数为55.4%，比上月下降1.2个百分点。

综合PMI指数保持扩张区间

8月份，综合PMI产出指数为50.1%，比上月下降0.1个百分点，继续位于扩张区间，表明我国企业生产经营活动总体保持小幅扩张。

编辑/ping

In August, the domestic manufacturing industry's business climate index fell slightly, but the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) of large enterprises maintained expansion, and the non-manufacturing business climate index slightly rebounded.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 31st showed that the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for August was 49.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in the manufacturing business climate.

The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.1%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the overall business climate in China's economy remained stable.

Senior statistician Zhao Qinghe from the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics interpreted the August PMI data, saying:

Affected by factors such as recent high temperatures and heavy rainfall, as well as the off-peak production season in some industries, the manufacturing PMI for August fell to 49.1%, indicating a slight decline in the business climate.
Looking at key industries, the PMI for the high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries was 51.7% and 51.2% respectively, an increase of 2.3 and 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range; the PMI for the consumer goods industry was 50.0%, at the critical point; the PMI for the high-energy-consuming industries was 46.4%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a relatively weak business climate and a significant decline in the high-energy-consuming industries, which was one of the main reasons for the decline in the manufacturing PMI this month.
The PMI of large enterprises is 50.4%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to last month. It has consistently remained above the critical point this year, continuing to play a supporting and leading role. The PMI of medium and small enterprises are 48.7% and 46.4% respectively, a decrease of 0.7 and 0.3 percentage points compared to last month. Medium and small enterprises are facing increased production and operation pressure.

Manufacturing PMI fell slightly.

In August, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing industry was 49.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in the manufacturing industry's business climate.

In terms of company size, the PMI for large enterprises was 50.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the threshold. The PMIs for medium and small enterprises were 48.7% and 46.4% respectively, down 0.7 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.

From the perspective of classification indices, among the five classification indices that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index are all below the critical point.

The production index was 49.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, below the threshold, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production activities.
The new orders index was 48.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in demand in the manufacturing market.
The raw materials inventory index was 47.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decrease in the inventory of main raw materials in the manufacturing industry compared to the previous month.
The employment index was 48.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in employment activity in the manufacturing industry.
The supplier delivery time index was 49.6%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, still below the threshold, indicating a continued extension of delivery times for raw materials suppliers in the manufacturing industry.

The non-manufacturing sector's business climate level has slightly rebounded.

In August, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the non-manufacturing business climate level has slightly rebounded.

Looking at different industries, the construction industry's business activity index was 50.6%, down by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; the service industry's business activity index was 50.2%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. When viewed by industry, the business activity indexes of rail transportation, aviation transportation, postal services, telecommunications, broadcasting - tv, satellite transmission services, culture, sports, and entertainment industries are all above 55.0%, in a relatively high prosperous range; the business activity indexes of capital market services, real estate, and residential services are below the critical point.

The new order index is 46.3%, up by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in non-manufacturing market demand. By industry, the construction industry's new order index is 43.5%, up by 3.4 percentage points from the previous month; the service industry's new order index is 46.8%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

The input price index is 48.6%, down by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a general decrease in the overall level of input prices used by non-manufacturing enterprises for operation. By industry, the construction industry's input price index is 47.6%, down by 2.3 percentage points from the previous month; the service industry's input price index is 48.8%, down by 1.7 percentage points from the previous month.

The sales price index is 47.2%, down by 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued overall decrease in non-manufacturing sales prices. By industry, the construction industry's sales price index is 48.1%, down by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month; the service industry's sales price index is 47.1%, down by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month.

The employment index is 45.2%, down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a downward trend in the working conditions of non-manufacturing enterprises. By industry, the construction industry's employment index is 41.0%, up by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the service industry's employment index is 45.9%, down by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month.

The business activity expectation index is 55.3%, down by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, still in a relatively high prosperous range, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises remain optimistic about market development. By industry, the construction industry's business activity expectation index is 54.7%, up by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month; the service industry's business activity expectation index is 55.4%, down by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month.

The comprehensive PMI index remains in the expansion range.

In August, the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and it continued to be in the expansion range, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of our country's enterprises maintained a slight expansion.

Editor/ping

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.