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儒竞科技(301525):热泵库存或已见底 新能源车热管理控制器持续高增

Rujing Technology (301525): Heat pump inventory may have bottomed out, and thermal management controllers for new energy vehicles continue to increase

開源證券 ·  Aug 30

Heat pump inventory may have bottomed out

The company released its 2024 mid-year report. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 0.66 billion yuan, -16% year-on-year; net profit to mother of 0.094 billion yuan, or -19% year-on-year. The decline was mainly due to 2023H1 being the peak of demand for heat pumps in Europe. Under the influence of a high base and industry removal, the HVAC/R sector's growth in the first half of 2024 was under pressure in the first half of 2024.

On a quarterly basis, 2024Q2 achieved revenue of 0.36 billion yuan, +24% month-on-month, and achieved net profit of 0.05 billion yuan to mother, +17% month-on-month, showing a positive month-on-month trend. The inventory balance at the end of the reporting period was $0.293 billion, a new low since 2021, and heat pump inventories may have bottomed out. The company has formed long-term and stable cooperative relationships with high-quality customers at home and abroad in the HVAC/R field. The NEV thermal management business continues to grow rapidly, and industrial automation nurtures future growth curves. We maintain our original profit forecast. We expect the company's 2024-2026 operating income to be 1.781, 2.549, and 3.585 billion yuan, respectively. Net profit to mother is 0.234, 0.373, and 0.564 billion yuan, respectively, and EPS is 2.48, 3.96, 5.98 yuan/share, corresponding to current stock prices PE was 17.8, 11.2, and 7.4 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.

New energy vehicle thermal management controllers continue to grow rapidly, and industrial automation fosters future growth curves by business. (1) 2024H1's revenue in the field of HVAC and refrigeration equipment was 0.44 billion yuan, -32% year over year; gross profit margin was 21.7%, -3.7 pcts year on year. The company's core product, HVAC/R inverter drives, are mainly used in various commercial air conditioners, air source heat pumps, household air conditioners, precision air conditioners, etc. with customized design requirements and energy saving and emission reduction technology requirements. Among them, European heat pumps grew under short-term pressure under the influence of a high base in the early stages and industry storage. The company's core products have been widely used in well-known domestic and foreign brands such as Copeland, McQuay, Ariston, Haier, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Haier, Carrier, Bosch, etc., and has a high market position. (2) 2024H1's revenue in the field of thermal management for new energy vehicles was 0.2 billion yuan, +69% year on year; gross profit margin was 25%, +0.9 pcts year on year. The company's products are used in many mainstream NEV models. The company will continue to increase research and development of products and technologies such as intelligent controllers and all-in-one controllers in the field of NEV thermal management to further increase its market share in the field of NEV thermal management. (3) 2024H1's revenue in the industrial drive field is about 16 million, which is still small. The company continues to increase R&D investment in market segments such as application industries and robots to cultivate future growth curves.

Risk warning: Industry competition intensifies, downstream demand falls short of expectations, and business and customer development falls short of expectations.

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