淡季需求承压，食萃持续贡献线上增量。1）分产品看，火锅底料淡季需求明显承压。龙虾料处于销售旺季叠加食萃表现稳健，中式菜品业务具备个位数增长。24Q2 火锅调料/中式菜品调料分别实现营收1.98/3.92 亿元，同比-22.9%/+4.7%。2）分渠道看，线上高增系食萃持续拓展小B 客户，24Q2 线下/线上分别实现营收4.92/1.22 亿元，同比-15.32%/+57.37%。3）分区域看，大本营西南区域实现稳健增长，其他市场收入承压。24Q2 西部/中部/东部/北部/南部分别实现营收2.16/1.56/1.38/0.42/0.63 亿元，同比+2.44%/-13.45%/-5.77%/-29.21%/0.42%。单Q2 公司经销商净增加33 家至3183 家，主要来自南部、东部区域。开商速度放缓，更关注发展质量。Brief performance review
On August 30, the company released its semi-annual report. 24H1 achieved revenue of 1.468 billion yuan, +2.95% year over year; realized net profit of 0.247 billion yuan, +18.79% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother 0.21 billion yuan, +17.68% year over year. Among them, 24Q2 achieved revenue of 0.614 billion yuan, -6.8% year over year; realized net profit of 0.071 billion yuan, or -10.9% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother 0.063 billion yuan, +6.07% year over year.
Management analysis
Demand in the off-season is under pressure, and food extracts continue to contribute to online growth. 1) By product, off-season demand for hot pot base is clearly under pressure. Lobster ingredients performed steadily during peak sales season combined with food ingredients, and the Chinese cuisine business grew by single digits. 24Q2 Hot Pot Seasoning/Chinese Dish Seasoning achieved revenue of 0.198/0.392 billion yuan respectively, or -22.9%/+4.7% YoY. 2) By channel, online high-growth food extracts continued to expand small B customers, and achieved revenue of 0.492/0.122 billion yuan offline/online in 24Q2, respectively, -15.32%/+57.37% over the same period last year. 3) Looking at the subregion, the southwest region, which is the base base, has achieved steady growth, and revenue from other markets is under pressure. 24Q2 West/Central/East/North/South achieved revenue of 2.16/1.56/0.138/0.042/0.063 billion yuan, or +2.44%/-13.45%/-5.77%/-29.21%/0.42% year-on-year. There was a net increase of 33 dealers in the Q2 Company to 3183, mainly from the southern and eastern regions. The pace of business development is slowing down, and more attention is being paid to the quality of development.
Product structure optimization is compounded by declining costs, and profitability continues to improve. 1) The gross margin/net margin for 24Q2 was 33.33%/11.53%, respectively, +2.0pct/-0.53 pct. The gross margin optimization is expected to result from a decline in raw material costs combined with a contraction in bonus activities. 2) The rate side was gradually optimized. The 24Q2 sales/management expense ratio was -0.72 pct/-1.39 pct year-on-year, of which 24H1 advertising expenses were 0.092 billion yuan, +29% year over year, and management rate optimization reduced incentive costs (23H1/24H1 were 29.34/10.9 million yuan respectively). 3) Investment income for 24Q2 was 0.012 billion yuan, -59% year-on-year. The actual net interest rate after deducting non-return income in Q2 was +1.24pct year-on-year.
The company insists on deepening the construction of a C-side omni-channel system and empowering the B-side through industrial chain investment and mergers and acquisitions to achieve multi-faceted omni-channel and multi-scenario access. The product side became user-oriented, revolved around “scenario-based” and “use-oriented”, and integrated into the multi-dimensional usage scenarios of consumers. We are still optimistic about the company as a leader in the repetition, and the peak season performance in the second half of the year is expected to recover steadily.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
Taking into account pressure on the demand side, we cut our net profit back to mother by 6%/10%/13% in '24. The company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 0.52/0.6/0.67 billion yuan, respectively, +15%/14%/12% year over year, and corresponding PE is 21x/18x/16x, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Risks such as food safety risks; new product releases falling short of expectations; increased market competition.
