①In the first half of 2024, Luzhou Laojiao's net income growth rate was lower than the estimates of most brokerages, but the revenue growth rate is in line with the target guidance given by the company at the beginning of the year. ②In Q2 of this year, Luzhou Laojiao's net income attributable to shareholders only increased by 2.24% year-on-year, a performance that can hardly be considered ideal. ③Currently, the ex-factory price of Luzhou Laojiao is 870 yuan per bottle, slightly higher than the beginning of the year, but still in a "backwards" state compared to the distributor payment price of 980 yuan per bottle.
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On August 30th, the net income growth rate of Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) in the first half of 2024 was lower than the estimates of most brokerages, but the company's revenue growth rate is consistent with the target guidance given by the company at the beginning of the year. In addition, the average price of the company's mid-to-high-end liquor decreased by about 7% year-on-year in the first half of the year.
Tonight, Luzhou Laojiao released its 2024 interim report. In the first half of the year, Luzhou Laojiao achieved revenue of 16.905 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.84%; net income attributable to shareholders was 8.028 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.22%, and non-GAAP net income was 7.994 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.54%.
At the beginning of the year, Luzhou Laojiao set its 2024 development goal as striving to achieve a year-on-year revenue growth rate of not less than 15%. Looking at it now, Luzhou Laojiao's revenue growth rate in the first half of the year is in line with the target guidance.
Overall, Luzhou Laojiao's net profit growth rate in the first half of the year was lower than the expectations of most brokerages. According to statistics from Cai Liang News, currently, including Huachuang Securities, Guotai Junan, China Merchants Securities, Huatai Securities, and Guosen Securities, among 11 brokerages, have made forecasts for Luzhou Laojiao's net profit in the first half of the year, generally expecting a year-on-year net profit growth rate of 18%-21%, while the company's 13.22% net profit growth rate fell short of expectations.
When looking at each quarter, in Q2 of this year, Luzhou Laojiao's revenue was 7.716 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.51%. Net income attributable to shareholders was 3.454 billion yuan, only a 2.24% year-on-year increase, and non-GAAP net income was 3.442 billion yuan, only a 2.68% year-on-year increase. "The performance of Luzhou Laojiao in Q2 is not ideal," said a food and beverage industry analyst to Cai Liang News reporters.
(Luzhou Laojiao's subsidiary, Guojiao 1573, photo taken by Caixin reporter Zhu Wanping)
In terms of products, in the first half of this year, Luzhou Laojiao's high-end liquor (with a pre-tax sales price ≥ 150 yuan/bottle, such as Guojiao 1573, Luzhou Laojiao Tejiu) achieved revenue of 15.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.12%. Other liquors (with a pre-tax sales price < 150 yuan/bottle, such as Luzhou Laojiao Touqu, Luzhou Laojiao Heigai) achieved revenue of 1.625 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.86%, with a slight increase in the proportion of medium to high-end liquor.
In terms of volume and price, in the first half of this year, Luzhou Laojiao's high-end liquor achieved sales of 21,282.5 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25.71%, with a ton price of 0.7148 million yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of about 7%; Luzhou Laojiao's other liquor products achieved sales of 26,632.98 tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.56%, with a ton price of 0.061 million yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of about 6.3%.
Contract liabilities are an important reference indicator for the performance of liquor companies, reflecting the continuous growth potential of a liquor company. As of the end of June this year, Luzhou Laojiao's contract liabilities amounted to 2.342 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%, but a decrease of 7.6% compared to the end of Q1 this year.
Since the beginning of this year, the overall price of Luzhou Laojiao's flagship product, Guojiao 1573, has been stable with a slight increase. Data from the Meijubang app shows that at the beginning of this year, the batch price of Guojiao 1573 (52 degrees, 500ml) was 860 yuan/bottle, with the lowest falling to 850 yuan/bottle and the highest rising to 880 yuan/bottle. The overall batch price trend was relatively stable. As of now, Luzhou Laojiao's batch price is 870 yuan/bottle, slightly higher than the beginning of the year, but still lower than the distributor's payment price of 980 yuan/bottle.
As for channel inventory, at the annual shareholder meeting held at the end of June this year, Lin Feng, the general manager of Luzhou Laojiao, revealed that the company's distributor inventory is not healthy, but the end and consumer sides are better. Subsequently, around July this year, Luzhou Laojiao announced the suspension of orders for the classic edition of Guojiao 1573 (52 degrees), and raised the price of the classic edition of Guojiao 1573 (38 degrees) by 30 yuan/bottle, and stopped accepting orders, in order to reduce inventory.