Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.
Market news about Apple's possible participation in the latest round of financing by ChatGPT developer OpenAI may trigger investors' concerns about the search engine agreement between the technology giant and Google.
A recent research report released by Bank of America shows that $Apple (AAPL.US)$ market news about the possible participation of $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ / $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ There is strong concern about the search engine protocol between them.
It is understood that, according to informed sources, the world's highest market cap chip giant$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$has discussed joining the latest round of financing for OpenAI, which may raise OpenAI's valuation to over $100 billion. Informed sources also stated that apple and one of the shareholders of OpenAI$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$have been in talks about participating in this round of financing with OpenAI. Informed sources said that this round of financing will be led by Thrive Capital with an investment of about $1 billion, and nvidia has discussed investing about $0.1 billion.
If substantial positive progress is made in the negotiations, this would mean that the three largest tech giants in the world will all support the developer of this groundbreaking AI chatbot ChatGPT. Currently, Microsoft is the largest funder of OpenAI, having invested approximately $13 billion before the latest round of financing.
Bank of America analysts wrote in their research reports: "Apple's major direct investment in OpenAI may cause investor concerns, as potential AI partners are long-term substitutes for Google search engine, and ChatGPT embedded in the iPhone may lead to a sharp decline in search engine usage." "At the very least, Apple's capital injection should help OpenAI compete with Google and$Amazon (AMZN.US)$The competition pattern between them.
Google and Amazon, both major shareholders of AI startup Anthropic, known as the "strongest competitor to OpenAI", have the largest user base in the global AI chatbot field with OpenAI's ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude.
According to the agreement between Apple and Google, the latter pays to become the default search engine on iOS devices. According to testimony provided by the US Department of Justice in the antitrust lawsuit against Google, Google paid Apple approximately $20 billion in 2022 in accordance with the agreement.
If Apple successfully invests in OpenAI, the on-device version of ChatGPT on iPhones with a large user base may cover more users. At that time, the preferred search method for iPhone users may no longer be Google, which could also hinder the renewal of the agreement between Apple and Google, and Google may no longer pay Apple $20 billion.
Apple has already established a partnership with OpenAI and announced this in June's developer conference. The advanced large-scale model GPT-4o powered by OpenAI will be integrated into Apple's voice assistant Siri. The demonstration at the press conference showed that if Siri users need to call AI chatbot ChatGPT, a window will pop up asking if the user wants to share everything with ChatGPT.
However, Apple's exclusive AI chatbot technology is far less advanced in usage scenarios than its competitors, prompting it to seek partners such as ChatGPT launched by OpenAI. The company also believes that customers may want to switch between AI chatbots based on different large models according to their own needs, just as they switch search engines between Google and Microsoft's Bing.
Under the Apple Intelligence technology framework, AI chatbots embedded in on-device devices like ChatGPT can be fully integrated with Apple's voice assistant Siri. This will allow Apple's iOS system users to control all the functions of a single application (App) using only voice, and to some extent achieve comprehensive interaction and interoperability among applications. Siri's positioning may no longer be a clumsy formal voice assistant, but a role similar to an "all-powerful AI companion".
Compared to general AI large models that rely on cloud computing power, AI chatbots based on on-device local large models can allow smartphone users to use products like ChatGPT more efficiently, conveniently, and securely. With the help of on-device AI, it is expected to achieve a "personal AI assistant" that better meets users' individual needs.
Editor / jayden