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US stock market outlook | The Fed's favorite inflation indicators rise moderately! Three major index futures rise together; Chinese concept stocks continue to rise before the market, nio inc rises more than 6%, and jd.com and Alibaba rise more than 4%.

Futu News · Aug 30 20:42

热点要闻

周五盘前，美联储“最爱”通胀指标温和上升，三大期指齐涨，纳指期货涨近1%

美国7月核心PCE物价指数同比增长2.60%，预期增长2.70%，前值增长2.60%；美国7月核心PCE物价指数环比增长0.2%，预期增长0.2%，前值增长0.2%。

美联储首选的衡量美国潜在通胀的PCE数据指标在7月份以温和的速度上升，家庭支出保持稳定，这表明政策制定者到目前为止能够在不给消费者带来太大痛苦的情况下抑制价格压力。

明星科技股盘前普涨， $英伟达 (NVDA.US)$ 涨近1%，$博通 (AVGO.US)$涨超3%。

热门中概股盘前上扬， $蔚来 (NIO.US)$ 涨超6%， $阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)$ 、 $京东 (JD.US)$ 涨超4%。

AI服务器销售火爆，戴尔Q2业绩超预期

$戴尔科技 (DELL.US)$ 第二季度营收增长9%，至250亿美元，好于市场预期的245亿美元。不计部分项目的每股收益为1.89美元，也好于市场预期的1.71美元。戴尔预计第三财季销售额约为245亿美元，与分析师预期相符。戴尔服务器和其他基础设施业务部门的营业利润率为11%，高于上一季度的8%，也高于分析师平均预期的10.7%。

国家市监总局宣布阿里整改完成，阿里回应：这是新的发展起点

国家市场监督管理总局今日下午发布公告，宣布 $阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)$ 集团完成三年整改，取得良好成效。阿里巴巴对此回应：“对于阿里巴巴而言，这是一个新的发展起点。未来，我们将继续立足创新，坚持合规经营，加大科技投入，推动平台经济健康发展，为社会创造更多价值。”据公开信息，2021年4月，阿里巴巴根据国家市场监督管理总局要求，开展为期三年的自查整改。

阿里盘前涨超4%。

高盛：予英伟达目标价135美元，续列入确信买入名单之列

高盛发表研究报告指，受核心数据中心业务带动， $英伟达 (NVDA.US)$ 次财季(截至7月底止)业绩略胜预期，而第三财季(截至10月底止)的收入及非通用会计准则(non-GAAP)毛利指引符合投资者预期。高盛给予公司的目标价135美元，维持“买入”评级，并续列入确信买入名单之列。

英特尔盘前涨超4%，考虑分拆代工业务

$英特尔 (INTC.US)$ 盘前涨超4%报20.95美元。消息面上，彭博援引知情人士透露，英特尔公司正在与高盛、摩根士丹利合作，以渡过其56年历史上最困难的时期。该公司正在讨论各种可能的情况，包括拆分其产品设计和制造业务，以及哪些工厂项目可能会被取消。

Lululemon盘前涨超3%，次季经调整每股盈利超预期

$Lululemon Athletica (LULU.US)$ 第二季度营收23.7亿美元，同比增长7%，预期为24.1亿美元；净利润3.93亿美元，同比增长15%；经调整每股盈利3.15美元，预期为2.93美元。同店销售收益增幅为2%，市场预期为5.9%。

“巴菲特新宠”Ulta美容Q2业绩不及预期，下调全年业绩指引

$Ulta美容 (ULTA.US)$ Q2营收为25.5亿美元，较上年同期的25.3亿美元增长0.8%，不及分析师预期的26.1亿美元；净利润为2.53亿美元，上年同期为3.00亿美元；每股收益为5.30美元，不及分析师预期的5.46美元，上年同期为6.02美元。这是该公司自2020年5月以来每股收益首次低于预期，也是自2020年12月以来营收首次低于预期。

Ulta美容盘前跌超7%。

名创优品Q2收入同比增24.1%，首次超过40亿元

$名创优品 (MNSO.US)$ 2024年第二季度收入同比增长24.1%至40.352亿元，首次超过40亿元；毛利率为43.9%，创公司历史新高，2023年同期为39.8%；经调整净利润同比增长9.4%至6.250亿元。

名创优品盘前涨近4%。

小鹏汽车盘前涨超3%，MONA M03上市两日订单破3万

$小鹏汽车 (XPEV.US)$ 在2024年成都车展上宣布，小鹏MONA MO3上市48小时录得大订订单逾30,000辆，并于成都车展期间开启交付。小鹏MONA M03共推出3款配置车型，官方指导售价区间为11.98-15.58万元。

猴痘概念股Emergent盘前一度大涨超40%，天花疫苗获FDA批准用于预防猴痘感染

猴痘/天花疫苗开发商 $Emergent BioSolutions (EBS.US)$ 股价周五盘前一度大涨超40%，现涨幅收窄至16%。美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)批准扩大该公司ACAM2000天花疫苗的使用范围，允许该疫苗用于猴痘感染高风险人群。

全球宏观

美国大选临近，花旗逆势看涨美元

花旗集团外汇策略师坚持认为，美元将在美国总统大选前反弹，尽管美元正走向去年12月以来的最大单月跌幅。考虑到唐纳德·特朗普在11月大选中获胜的潜在影响，花旗外汇策略师团队周四强调了美元兑一篮子新兴市场和发达市场货币走强的可能性。特朗普第二届政府可能出台更具保护主义色彩的贸易政策，这是该行在大选前几个月看涨美元的主要原因。例如，提高关税以减少进口，从而减少世界市场上美元的外流。

美联储降息预期提振下，美债有望创三年来最佳表现

随着交易员准备迎接美联储自2020年以来的首次降息，美国国债有望创下3年来的最佳表现。根据Bloomberg美国国债总回报指数显示，截至8月28日，美国国债本月已上涨1.7%，连续第四个月上涨。自4月底以来，随着投资者对美联储降息的预期升温，该指数一直在反弹，今年迄今的涨幅扩大至3%。

特朗普竞选搭档万斯呼吁拆分谷歌等大型科技公司，以促进创新

据英国金融时报，特朗普的竞选搭档万斯在接受采访时敦促科技界亿万富翁彼得·蒂尔(Peter Thiel)“离开观望的位置”，为共和党的白宫竞选提供资金支持，因为共和党正试图为击败卡玛拉·哈里斯建立战备基金。此外，万斯还谈到应该拆分大型科技公司以促进创新，他呼吁拆分大型科技公司中最强大的公司之一谷歌。

交易提示：因美国劳动节假期，9月2日美股休市一日

9月2日(周一)为美国劳动节假期，美股休市一日。9月3日(周二)恢复正常交易。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

21:45：美国8月芝加哥PMI。

22:00：美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值。

次日凌晨01:00：美国截至8月30日当周全美钻井总数(口)。

次日凌晨03:30：CFTC公布周度持仓报告。

编辑/emily

Hot news

Before the market opens on Friday, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator has moderately increased and the three major futures are all up, with Nasdaq futures up nearly 1%.

In July, the core PCE price index in the United States increased by 2.60% compared to the same period last year, with an expected increase of 2.70%. The previous value increased by 2.60%. Additionally, the core PCE price index in the United States increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month, with an expected increase of 0.2%. The previous value also increased by 0.2%.

The preferred measure of potential inflation in the United States by the Federal Reserve, the PCE data index, rose moderately in July, with household spending remaining stable. This indicates that policymakers have been able to restrain price pressure without causing too much pain to consumers.

Pre-market trading for growth tech stocks is generally rising. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Rises nearly 1%, $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$rose more than 3%.

China concept stocks are up in pre-market trading, $NIO Inc (NIO.US)$ Up more than 6%, $Alibaba (BABA.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$JD.com (JD.US)$ up more than 4%.

AI server sales are booming, with Dell's Q2 performance exceeding expectations.

$Dell Technologies (DELL.US)$ Revenue in the second quarter increased by 9%, to $25 billion, exceeding market expectations of $24.5 billion. Earnings per share, excluding certain items, were $1.89, also exceeding market expectations of $1.71. Dell expects sales in the third quarter to be around $24.5 billion, in line with analysts' expectations. The operating margin of Dell's server and other infrastructure business unit is 11%, higher than the previous quarter's 8%, and also higher than analysts' average expectation of 10.7%.

The State Administration for Market Regulation has announced that Alibaba's rectification has been completed. Alibaba responded: This is a new starting point for development.

The State Administration for Market Supervision and Administration issued an announcement this afternoon to announce $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ The group has completed a three-year rectification and achieved good results. Alibaba responded: "For Alibaba, this is a new starting point for development. In the future, we will continue to focus on innovation, adhere to compliance operation, increase investment in technology, promote the healthy development of platform economy, and create more value for society." According to public information, in April 2021, Alibaba conducted a three-year self-inspection and rectification in accordance with the requirements of the State Administration for Market Regulation.

Alibaba rose more than 4% in pre-market trading.

Goldman Sachs: Nvidia's target price is $135, and it remains on the Conviction Buy List.

Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that driven by its core data center business, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The performance of the second quarter (ending in late July) slightly exceeded expectations, while the third quarter (ending in late October) income and non-GAAP gross margin guidance met investor expectations. Goldman Sachs gave the company a target price of $135, maintained a 'buy' rating, and continued to be included in the conviction buy list.

Intel rose more than 4% in pre-market trading, considering the split of its foundry business.

$Intel (INTC.US)$ Rising more than 4% in pre-market trading to $20.95. On the news front, Bloomberg cited sources revealing that Intel is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to get through the most challenging period in its 56-year history. The company is discussing various possible situations, including splitting its product design and manufacturing business, and which factory projects may be cancelled.

Lululemon rose more than 3% in pre-market trading, with second-quarter adjusted earnings per share exceeding expectations.

$Lululemon Athletica (LULU.US)$ Second-quarter revenue was $2.37 billion, a 7% year-on-year increase, compared to the expected $2.41 billion; net income was $0.393 billion, a 15% year-on-year increase; adjusted earnings per share were $3.15, compared to the expected $2.93. Same-store sales revenue growth was 2%, compared to the market expectation of 5.9%.

"Buffett's new favorite" Ulta Beauty's Q2 performance fell short of expectations and lowered its full-year performance guidance.

$Ulta Beauty (ULTA.US)$ Q2 revenue was $2.55 billion, a 0.8% increase from the same period last year's $2.53 billion, falling short of analysts' expectations of $2.61 billion; net income was $0.253 billion, compared to $0.3 billion in the same period last year; earnings per share was $5.30, below analysts' expectations of $5.46 and $6.02 in the same period last year. This is the first time the company's earnings per share have fallen below expectations since May 2020, and the first time revenue has fallen below expectations since December 2020.

Ulta Beauty fell more than 7% in pre-market trading.

Miniso's Q2 revenue increased by 24.1% year-on-year, surpassing 4 billion yuan for the first time.

$MINISO (MNSO.US)$ In the second quarter of 2024, revenue increased by 24.1% year-on-year to 4.0352 billion yuan, surpassing 4 billion yuan for the first time; gross margin was 43.9%, reaching a new historical high for the company, compared to 39.8% in the same period in 2023; adjusted net income increased by 9.4% year-on-year to 0.625 billion yuan.

Miniso rose nearly 4% in pre-market trading.

Xpeng's pre-market trading rose more than 3%, and the Mona M03 has received over 0.03 million orders in the past two days.

$XPeng (XPEV.US)$ Announced at the 2024 Chengdu Auto Show, the Xpeng Mona M03 has received over 30,000 orders within 48 hours and will begin deliveries during the auto show. The Mona M03 comes in 3 different configurations with a price range of 0.1198-0.1558 million yuan.

Emergent, a monkeypox concept stock, saw a pre-market surge of over 40% as the smallpox vaccine was approved by the FDA for preventing monkeypox infection.

Manufacturer of monkeypox/smallpox vaccines. $Emergent BioSolutions (EBS.US)$ Emergent, the developer of monkeypox/smallpox vaccines, experienced a pre-market surge of over 40% on Friday, but the current increase has narrowed to 16%. The FDA has approved expanding the use of the company's ACAM2000 smallpox vaccine to include high-risk individuals with monkeypox infection.

Global macro

With the approaching of the US election, Citigroup predicts a bullish trend for the US dollar.

Citi's foreign exchange strategists remain confident that the US dollar will rebound before the US presidential election, despite the largest monthly decline since December last year. Considering the potential impact of Donald Trump's victory in the November election, Citi's foreign exchange strategists highlighted the possibility of a stronger US dollar against a basket of emerging market and developed market currencies. The main reason why the bank is optimistic about the US dollar in the months leading up to the election is the possibility of the Trump administration's more protectionist trade policies. For example, raising tariffs to reduce imports and thus reduce the outflow of US dollars in the global market.

Boosted by expectations of a Fed interest rate cut, US bonds are expected to deliver their best performance in three years.

As traders prepare for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut since 2020, US Treasury bonds are expected to achieve their best performance in three years. According to Bloomberg's US Treasury Bond Total Return Index, as of August 28, US Treasury bonds have risen 1.7% this month, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth. Since the end of April, the index has been rebounding as investors' expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have intensified, and the year-to-date gain has expanded to 3%.

Trump's running mate, Pence, calls for the breakup of major tech companies like Google to promote innovation.

According to the Financial Times, Trump's running mate, Pence, urged tech billionaires like Peter Thiel to "get off the sidelines" and support the Republican presidential campaign financially, as the GOP is trying to establish a war chest to defeat Kamala Harris. In addition, Pence also talked about the need to break up big tech companies to promote innovation, calling for the breakup of one of the most powerful companies, Google.

Trading tip: The US stock market is closed on September 2nd for the Labor Day holiday.

September 2nd (Monday) is the Labor Day holiday in the USA and the US stock market is closed. Normal trading will resume on September 3rd (Tuesday).

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

21:45: Chicago PMI for August in the United States.

22:00: Final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for August in the United States.

01:00 (next day): Total number of rigs in the United States as of the week ending on August 30th.

03:30 (next day): CFTC releases weekly position report.

Editor/Emily

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