投资建议：业绩略低于预期，下调公司2024-2026年EPS分别为0.45（-0.29）、0.52（-0.35）、0.59（-0.34）元，考虑公司免税业务发展潜力，给予2024 年高于行业平均的35xPE，下调目标价为15.75 元，维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
Q2 Consumer demand is weak, and the company's profits are under pressure. We look forward to a recovery in consumption and the growth of the duty-free business.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: The performance was slightly lower than expected. The company's 2024-2026 EPS was reduced by 0.45 (-0.29), 0.52 (-0.35), and 0.59 (-0.34) yuan, respectively. Considering the company's duty-free business development potential, 35xPE was given higher than the industry average in 2024, and the target price was lowered to 15.75 yuan, maintaining an increase rating.
Performance summary: 2024H1 revenue 6.035 billion yuan/YoY -5.40%, net profit to mother 0.293 billion yuan/YoY -43.36%, net profit not attributable to mother 0.32 billion yuan/YoY -30.13%. Among them, 24Q2 revenue was 2.727 billion yuan/-9.49% year over year, net profit to mother 0.091 billion yuan/-68.65% year over year, and net profit not attributable to mother was 0.127 billion yuan/year on year -45.81%.
Q2 Consumer willingness to buy declined, and the performance of all retail formats was under pressure. ① By business type: department store revenue YoY -13.65% /gross margin YoY -0.83pct, shopping center revenue +0.01% YoY /gross margin YoY -3.46pct, outlet +0.2% YoY /gross margin -2.16pct, specialty store revenue -3.09% YoY /gross margin YoY -1.98pct, duty-free revenue +121.17% /gross margin YoY -4.93pct. ② By business category: Categories representing new lifestyle categories, technological innovation products, and quality experiences perform better than other categories. In terms of product consumption, sports, women's clothing, jewelry, makeup, men's clothing, and digital home appliances are the top six in the company's overall sales. ③ Split volume and price: Passenger traffic increased slightly year-on-year, and the various business formats were unbalanced. The increase in shopping malls was significantly better than other business formats. In terms of customer unit price, Q1 customer unit price rose slightly year on year. Since Q2, customer unit price has declined slightly year over year due to lower consumer willingness to buy and decline in purchasing power.
It won the bid for the duty-free projects at Harbin and Mudanjiang airports, which is expected to benefit from the city's new duty-free policy.
On August 13, 2024, Wangfujing Group received the “Notice of Winning Bid” from the bidding agency Zhongzhao International Bidding Co., Ltd., and determined that Wangfujing was the winner of the exit duty-free projects at Harbin Taiping International Airport and Mudanjiang Hailang International Airport. On August 27, the Ministry of Finance and five other departments jointly issued a notice to improve the city's duty-free shop policy, which will be implemented from October 1, 2024. With approval from the State Council, enterprises that are qualified to operate duty-free goods throughout the country can compete on an equal footing for the right to operate duty-free shops in the city. Wangfujing is expected to participate in the bidding.
Risk warning: Consumer demand is weak, and bids for duty-free projects fall short of expectations.
