公司降本增效明显，利润释放持续兑现。2024H1 公司毛利率为65.8%，同比-1.3pct，其中2024Q2 毛利率68.5%，同比-0.1pct。2024Q2销售/管理费用率分别为30.1%/8.0%，同比-4.7/-1.1pct，公司降本增效成果显著，提升费用使用效率和保证销售费用有效落地，费用率优化略超预期。2024H1 净利率达12.3%，同比+2.6ct，其中2024Q2 净利率达12.6%，同比+3.2pct。2024Q2 合同负债为18.6 亿元，同比/环比-0.1/-5.0 亿元，2024H1 经营活动现金流量净额为2.2 亿元，同比+32.2%，现金流表现优秀。Incident: Lao Bai Gan released its 2024 semi-annual report. 2024H1 achieved revenue of 2.47 billion yuan, +10.65% year over year, net profit of 0.304 billion yuan, +40.25% year over year, net profit of non-return to mother 0.278 billion yuan, +46.41% year over year. 2024Q2 achieved revenue of 1.34 billion yuan, +9.00% year over year, net profit to mother 0.168 billion yuan, +46.69% year over year, net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 0.153 billion yuan, +59.11% year over year.
The Hebei headquarters market grew steadily, the Laobaigan brand performed well, and Wuling Q2 decelerated slightly. Looking at the structure, 2024H1 products with a factory price of 100 yuan/100 yuan or less achieved revenue of 1.253/1.199 billion yuan respectively, +19.66%/+12.93% over the same period last year, and the share of 100 yuan or more increased by 3.8 pcts to 50.7%. By division, 2024H1 Laobaigan/Wenwang/Bancheng/Wuling/Kongfujiajijiajijiajijiajiyuan achieved revenue of 12.52/3.02/0.357/0.492/0.092 billion yuan, +19.10%/+20.21%/+6.49%/+15.11%/+28.11% compared with the same period last year. By region, 2024H1 Hebei/ Hunan/ Anhui/ Shandong/ Others/ Overseas revenue is
14.28/4.70/2.72/0.083/0.189/0.009 billion yuan, +14.52%/+10.10%/+14.56%/+35.99%/+50.94%/+15.15%, 2024Q2 revenue was 7.60/2.82/1.44/0.046/0.094/0.004 billion, +9.33%/+3.71%/+15.21%/+33.45% /+ 50.79% /+ At 9.80%, the old Baigan brand of the headquarters grew brilliantly. The first 15 refurbishment update successfully achieved relatively rapid growth in the banquet market expansion, and Pancheng was positioned to achieve steady growth in the low to medium price range. Wuling Liquor Q2 decelerated slightly from month to month, mainly due to active optimization of terminals, 2024H1 reduced sales by 141 companies, and Shandong Kong Fujia's performance this year. In terms of the number of dealers, as of the end of 2024Q2, the number of dealers in Hebei/Anhui/Shandong/Hunan/other provinces was 1852/191/185/8508/685, respectively, adding +113/+20/-25/ -141/+28, respectively. The number of dealers in Hebei increased significantly.
The company reduced costs significantly and increased efficiency, and profit releases continued to be realized. 2024H1's gross margin was 65.8%, -1.3 pct year on year, of which 2024Q2 gross margin was 68.5%, or -0.1 pct year on year. The 2024Q2 sales/management expense ratios were 30.1%/8.0%, respectively, -4.7/-1.1 pct. The company achieved remarkable results in cost reduction and efficiency, improving the efficiency of cost use and ensuring the effective implementation of sales expenses, and the cost ratio optimization slightly exceeded expectations. 2024H1 net margin reached 12.3%, +2.6ct year on year, of which 2024Q2 net margin reached 12.6%, +3.2pct year on year. The 2024Q2 contract debt was 1.86 billion yuan, -0.01/-0.5 billion yuan year-on-month, and the net cash flow from 2024H1 operating activities was 0.22 billion yuan, +32.2% year over year. The cash flow performance was excellent.
Investment advice: Revenue growth is expected to be 11%/11%/10% in 2024-2026, with net profit growth rates of 31%/16%/15%, EPS of 0.96/1.11/1.27 yuan respectively, and corresponding PE of 19x/16x/14x, respectively. Based on the 2024 results, the target price is 21.12 yuan, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Industry policy risks, food safety risks, structural upgrades falling short of expectations, and increased industry competition risks.