公司2024H1 营收为36.65 亿元（同减5%），归母净利润为3.33 亿元（同减24%），扣非归母净利润2.69 亿元（同减30%），其中2024Q2 营收为14.12 亿元（同减5%），归母净利润为1.03 亿元（同减34%），扣非归母净利润0.71 亿元（同减49%）。盈利端，公司2024Q2 毛利率同减2pct 至24.87%，主要系促销力度增加所致，销售费用率同增3pct 至13.04%，主要系公司大幅增加渠道费用投放所致，管理费用率同增0.01pct 至3.79%，叠加公司出于谨慎性考虑，针对部分机器设备计提减值准备，净利率同减3pct 至7.33%。On August 28, 2024, Sanquan Foods released its 2024 semi-annual report.
Key points of investment
Industry demand is under pressure, promotion expenses are increasing
The company's 2024H1 revenue was 3.665 billion yuan (same decrease of 5%), net profit due to mother was 0.333 billion yuan (same decrease of 24%), net profit not attributable to mother was 0.269 billion yuan (same decrease of 30%), of which 2024Q2 revenue was 1.412 billion yuan (same decrease of 5%), net profit attributable to mother was 0.103 billion yuan (same decrease of 34%), net profit not attributable to mother was 0.071 billion yuan (same decrease of 49%). On the profit side, the company's gross margin decreased by 2 pcts to 24.87% in 2024Q2, mainly due to increased promotion efforts. The sales expense ratio increased by 3 pcts to 13.04%, mainly due to the company's drastic increase in channel expenses. The management fee ratio also increased by 0.01 pct to 3.79%. Combined, the company calculated impairment preparations for some machinery and equipment, and the net interest rate decreased by 3 pcts to 7.33%.
Competition in the quick-frozen rice industry intensified, focusing on the development of quick-frozen rice products, and the scale of quick-frozen prepared products increased steadily. 2024H1's revenue for frozen noodle rice products was 3.141 billion yuan (same decrease of 6%), and gross profit margin was 27.28% (same decrease of 2 pct). In terms of split volume price, sales volume was 0.3349 million tons (same increase of 2%), and the tonnage price was 0.0094 million/ton (same decrease of 7%), showing a clear trend of price increase and decline. Among them, the revenue of rice balls, dumplings, and rice dumplings was 2.061 billion yuan (same decrease of 8%), which was mainly affected by increased market competition, and the terminal price war lowered sales prices. Revenue from innovative rice noodle products was 1.08 billion yuan (same decrease of 2%). 2024H1's quick-frozen prepared food revenue is 0.464 billion yuan (same increase of 2%), gross profit margin of 15.20% (same increase of 1 pct), sales volume 0.0296 million tons (same decrease of 1%), tonnage price 0.0157 million/ton (same increase of 3%). It is mainly due to the company improving service capacity for major catering customers, continuing product promotion, and optimizing the product structure to promote tonnage price increases. The company is currently focusing on resources to increase resource investment in balls, beef and lamb products. growth. 2024H1's revenue for refrigerated and short-storage food products was 0.03 billion yuan (same decrease of 22%), gross profit margin of 7.31% (same decrease of 3 pcts), sales volume 0.0026 million tons (same decrease of 5%), tonnage price 0.0118 million yuan/ton (same decrease of 18%). The direct supermarket system strengthened risk control, and e-commerce channels achieved high growth. The company's 2024H1 distribution/direct-management/direct e-commerce channel revenue was 2.757/0.706/0.173 billion yuan, respectively, -7%/-6%/+60%, respectively. Affected by household demand pressure, distribution channel revenue weakened. Due to the continuous sharp decline in passenger traffic, the company strengthened accounts receivable risk control for direct supermarkets. The sales scale of the direct supermarket system declined, and e-commerce channel development achieved obvious results.
Profit forecasting
As a leading enterprise in frozen rice and noodle products, the company has strong brand potential. It will continue to develop innovative products under the original channel/brand advantage, and increase resource investment in frozen preparation products. We are optimistic that the company will optimize and adjust the channel/organizational structure, and it is expected to release potential energy after market demand recovers. According to the semi-annual report, we adjusted the 2024-2026 EPS to 0.72/0.78/0.85 (previous value was 0.94/1.04/1.14), respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE 14/13/12 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” investment rating.
Risk warning
Macroeconomic downside risks, new product promotion falls short of expectations, and food and beverage market progress falls short of expectations.
