Looking back at the game industry in 2019, we are in"what else can games bring to users after 2019? "It is concluded that the industry is experiencing a wave of "Renaissance". After the previous rapid development, the game industry will return to the quality of works, and quality will become the tone of future development.

In the process of development, driven by the cooperation in the industry, the development of technology, competition from all sides and other factors, the game market will have the following development trends:

First, the mobile game market tends to mature, and the stand-alone market is expected to break out.

Mobile games have effectively lowered the threshold for getting started in the game, completed the user education for consumers, and the growth rate began to slow down as the domestic market matured; in terms of PC games, although "World of Warcraft" nostalgic clothes unilaterally became popular, it still could not change the weakness of the entire market.

But what is striking is that the stand-alone game market is growing rapidly. Benefiting from the user training of the steam platform, the domestic stand-alone game release platform is becoming more and more mature, although the scale of China's stand-alone game market is only 640 million yuan, but this is only the data on record. With the deepening of domestic players' copyright awareness, the continuous maintenance of anti-piracy measures, and the cultivation of user habits, the domestic stand-alone game market will have great room for development.

Judging from the current trend, the major manufacturers have begun to lay out the domestic stand-alone game market: Perfect World officially released the steam Chinese version of "Steam platform" on August 21, while Tencent has already accumulated a lot of domestic stand-alone users through wegame and epic platforms.

Second, with the cooperation of large manufacturers and the release of the mainframe of the Bank of China, domestic manufacturers are expected to enter the console game market in the future.

The national version of switch was officially released on December 10, announcing the cooperation between Tencent and Nintendo. Since then, the three major consoles in the world, ps, xbox and switch, have all been listed in China, and console games are expected to become the next growth point in the industry in the future.

Combined with the rapid growth of stand-alone games, the mainframe, as its main distribution platform, will also enjoy the dividend of market growth. And the unit price of the console game is high, the user stickiness is strong, the global market reaches 47.9 billion US dollars, accounting for 32% of the total game market, this market itself is quite attractive to domestic manufacturers.

The early domestic work "Rain Blood" and "Ash" in the past two years have caused a sensation in the market, proving that domestic manufacturers are able to make excellent console games with their own characteristics.

In addition, mobile hosts such as switch, for domestic game developers, can greatly facilitate the transplantation of mobile games works that manufacturers are good at, and have a good role in mine detection and trampling on the big market of console games.

Third, although cloud games are popular, commercialization still needs to be explored.

1. Cloud games lower the threshold of players so that you can play as much as you want.

There has been a way of playing cloud games as early as the era of television. Do you remember that when you dialed a phone and controlled Mini Game on TV with digital buttons, it was already similar to the way cloud games were played.

The point is that you don't have to spend a lot of money on hardware, buy a game console or upgrade your graphics card or CPU. All you need is a network, like the one above, with a phone line; a handle or a mobile phone as a controller; then a screen, which can be a TV, a mobile phone, or a computer monitor; and then you can control it remotely, and the game screen is transmitted in real time through the signal and put on the screen, and players can play as much as they want and enjoy it.

From this point of view, cloud games have many benefits:

First of all, it greatly reduces the threshold of the game, and you don't have to buy equipment.

Second, to achieve multi-screen unity, games on different platforms, you can use even a small mobile phone screen to display

As a result of the above two items, the cloud game removes all kinds of restrictions on the game, so that you can play anytime and anywhere you want.

2. Physical distance has become a constraint, and the development of cloud games needs more exploration.

At present, there are a number of cloud game platforms online, but from the display effect, the physical distance has become a gap that is difficult to break through. Although it has entered the 5G era, even Alphabet Inc-CL C's stadia platform still has serious delay problems and game picture quality decline. Therefore, the development of cloud games still needs more exploration.

More importantly, the future market is very likely to produce appropriate game content according to the characteristics of the cloud game platform. If the delay problem is difficult to solve, then the platform can reduce the number of online games such as FPS and ACT, and perhaps slower games like Detroit and Black Los Angeles are more appropriate.

However, it is undeniable that the birth of cloud games does lower the threshold for players to play games, and greatly reduces the conversion costs of players. A game is not fun, there is no need to consider the adaptability of hardware, you can change to another immediately.

Therefore, this will undoubtedly test the ability of game developers, confirming the conclusion of the Renaissance: good R & D ability, excellent innovation ability, who has these, will become a leader in the industry.

4. VR/AR has been silent for many years and may be coming out of the cocoon.

When AR/AR technology was first introduced, it became popular all over the world, but it fell silent because of the technical damage.

VR's vertigo has been criticized by users for its refresh rate and picture delay, but with the advent of 5G and low latency is expected to solve the problem of vertigo, Zuckerberg has said that VR may become a 5G killer app.

And with the progress of hardware devices including GPU, sensors, display screens, cameras and so on, AR/VR technology can bring users a better experience; the wide application of smart phones is expected to become a terminal device to experience AR/VR, and the promotion cost of technology application will be significantly reduced.

As the main application scenario of AR/VR, the number of related applications and downloads of games have far exceeded those of other fields. Since its launch, the most famous AR game, Bao Ke Meng, has earned $1.2 billion on Android and $748 million on Apple Inc's ios platform.

Benefiting from the improvement of technology and hardware, games plus AR/VR and even MR, with the blessing of 5G technology, may break out of the cocoon and open up a new incremental market.

Fifth, the game between the platform and the manufacturer will lead to a change in the proportion of income, and the right to speak on high-quality products will be enhanced.

This year, Tencent has communicated with the platform side on the release of "Crazy Racing Kart Rider" and "Jianwang fingertips", demanding that the income-sharing ratio be changed from 55 to 73, with game manufacturers taking 7 and platforms taking 3.

In fact, the 55% split between the platform and the manufacturer was mainly due to the fact that the smartphone market had just opened, mobile games were in the stage of explosion, and the distribution platform had a strong channel advantage.

But in relatively mature markets, manufacturers' income scores are relatively high. Foreign companies such as Apple Inc ios, Alphabet Inc-CL C Android and steam are all divided according to the proportion of 73%.

With the addition of new platforms and new channels, in order to seize resources, it will often increase the proportion. BABA entered the mobile game market in 14 years, and gave an 82% share at that time.

In the mainframe stand-alone market, the epic platform also gives a percentage of 82% in order to seize the game resources of steam.

However, in the mature mobile game market, players have been educated, their independent identification ability has been enhanced, and the distribution platform is diversified, but high-quality content has become rare.

Therefore, manufacturers with high-quality content require that the domestic market should also share in accordance with the 73-fold practice of the international market, coupled with the tightening of version number approval, high-quality content in the market has been sought after, and the discourse right of manufacturers has been significantly improved. the major platforms have also begun to share according to 73.

The tilt of the balance between the platform and the manufacturer once again confirms the conclusion of the Renaissance-good R & D capability and excellent innovation ability. whoever has these will become a leader in the industry.

Conclusion: the valuation of Chinese game manufacturers is lower than that of the international level, and the market development is beneficial to companies with good R & D capabilities.

According to wind data, from the following figure PCF BAND, China's online games are currently at a historically low level.

Horizontal comparison of the international market, China's leading enterprises Tencent, NetEase, Inc and Sanqi Muyu, Perfect World, Kunlun Wanwei, from the perspective of PE and PCF, but also basically lower than the international famous game companies Ubisoft, take-two, Activision Blizzard and so on.

From reviewing the reputation of 19 years of market works, the growth of market segments, and the promotion of cloud games and VR/AR technology, as well as the tilt of the balance of platforms and manufacturers' discourse power, it can be concluded that in the next game market, companies with excellent R & D and innovation capabilities are expected to become market leaders.