充电业务出货延续高增，毛利率受新工厂影响同比下滑。公司1H24 充电业务营收2.94 亿元，同比+55.3%，其中2Q24 我们估计营收约1.90 亿元，同增超50%，环增近80%，我们认为主要受益于行业较高增长及公司自身份额提升带动出货增加；盈利方面，1H24 毛利率22.9%，同比-2.58ppt，我们认为主要受行业竞争加剧，以及1H24 模块出货尚未起量叠加新工厂爬坡导致制造费用增加的影响，其中2Q24 我们估计毛利率随出货规模增加环比有所修复。向前看，下半年为充电桩建设交付旺季，叠加县域充换电设施补短板补贴资金逐步落实，以及中石油、中石化等招标落地，我们看好2H24 行业景气度回升、公司有望随之受益，盈利端有望随出货增长而逐步改善。此外，公司积极布局出海，1H24 参加美国、德国、印尼等6 个国家的海外充电桩展会，我们预计2H24 海外出货增长亦有望助力盈利改善。1H24 results fall short of our expectations
The company announced 1H24 results: revenue/net profit/deducted non-net profit of 0.459/0.02/0.018 billion yuan, +39.1%/-43.8%/-18.6%; of which 2Q24 revenue/net profit/net non-net profit 0.281/0.012/0.011 billion yuan, +32.9%/-37.1% YoY, +57.4%/+62.5%/+68.0% month-on-month; we think the company's performance is lower than our expectations, mainly due to increased competition in the industry In addition, the new factory in Xi'an is climbing downhill and dragging down profits. Higher 1H23 government subsidies also affected the year-on-year growth rate.
Development trends
Shipments in the charging business continued to increase, and gross margins declined year-on-year due to the impact of new plants. The company's 1H24 charging business revenue was 0.294 billion yuan, +55.3% year over year, of which we estimate 2Q24 revenue was about 0.19 billion yuan, an increase of more than 50%, and an increase of nearly 80%. We believe it mainly benefited from high industry growth and the increase in the company's own share led to increased shipments; in terms of profit, 1H24 gross profit margin was 22.9%, year-on-year -2.58ppt, which we believe was mainly affected by increased industry competition, and the increase in manufacturing costs due to the rise in manufacturing costs due to the rise in 1H24 module shipments, among which 2Q24 We estimate that gross margin recovered month-on-month as the volume of shipments increased. Looking ahead, the second half of the year is the peak season for charging pile construction and delivery, combined with the gradual implementation of subsidy funds to repair shortcomings in county charging and switching facilities, and the landing of tenders such as CNPC and Sinopec. We are optimistic that the 2H24 industry will recover and the company is expected to benefit from it. The profit side is expected to gradually improve as shipments grow. In addition, the company is actively planning to go overseas. 1H24 participated in overseas charging pile exhibitions in 6 countries including the United States, Germany, and Indonesia. We expect that 2H24 overseas shipment growth will also help improve profits.
The power grid business grew steadily, and the profitability of the aerospace business rebounded year on year. The company's 1H24 power operation power business revenue was 0.083 billion yuan, +11.8% year over year. We believe it mainly benefited from the acceleration of investment in the power grid side and the launch of the company's distribution network automation products. The gross profit margin was 37.0%, -3.0ppt year over year. We estimate that it may be affected by industry competition. The company's 1H24 aerospace specialty power business had revenue of 0.044 billion yuan, -7.0% year over year, gross profit margin of 52.2%, and +12.4ppt year over year. We believe that the slowdown in revenue growth was mainly due to delays in the progress of downstream projects, and the increase in profitability is estimated to be due to an increase in the share of high-margin products.
Expense rates increased year-on-year during the period, and cash flow improved markedly year-on-year. The company's cost rate for the 1H24 period was 25.9%, +1.4ppt year over year, with management/R&D expenses ratio +0.6ppt year on year. We believe that the former was mainly due to the increase in related expenses after the investment of the new plant in Xi'an, while the latter was mainly due to the company's increased investment in R&D. The company's 1H24 operating net cash flow also increased by about 0.04 billion yuan, which is a significant year-on-year improvement.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Considering the decline in the profitability of charging modules, we lowered the company's 2024/2025 net profit by 26%/18% to 0.111/0.18 billion yuan, and lowered the target price by 25% to 18 yuan. The current stock price/target price corresponds to 21.1x/13.0x P/E and 28.3x/17.5x P/E in 2024/2025, respectively, with 34.4% upward space, maintaining an industry performance rating.
risks
The growth of the charging industry fell short of expectations, the progress of overseas trips fell short of expectations, and the risk of impairment of goodwill.
