维持“增持” 评级，维持目标价40.67 元/股，对应24 年P/EV 为0.84 倍：公司24H1 归母净利润同比10.6%，其中Q2 同比48.9%，好于预期，主要为投资收益改善带来。基于负债端NBV 稳健增长及投资收益改善预计增厚利润贡献，上调2024-2026 年EPS 为1.98（1.93,3.3%）/2.40（2.32,3.6%）/2.80（2.70,3.8%）元。Introduction to this report:
24H1's net profit to mother was 10.6% year-on-year, mainly due to investment improvements. Improvements in personal insurance and banking insurance value ratios are driving NBV's rapid growth. The medium- to long-term equity investment layout boosts the level of return on investment.
Key points of investment:
Maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating, maintaining the target price of 40.67 yuan/share, corresponding to the 24-year P/EV of 0.84 times: the company's 24H1 net profit was 10.6% YoY, of which Q2 was 48.9% YoY, better than expected, mainly due to improvements in investment income. EPS for 2024-2026 was increased to 1.98 (1.93,3.3%) /2.40 (2.32,3.6%) /2.80 (2.70,3.8%) based on the steady growth of debt-side NBV and improved investment returns.
NBV grew rapidly, and the value ratio of personal insurance and banking insurance was greatly improved to achieve two-wheel drive: 24H1's new business value grew rapidly, 18.6% over the same period last year, in line with expectations. 1) The NBV of individual insurance channels was 14.6% year over year, mainly due to the year-on-year premium ratio of -5.7% of the channel manpower ratio. The team quality continued to improve, and the monthly per capita first-year premium payment rate increased 12.4% year over year. The new marketing model layout “seed plan” has been piloted in 24 cities. It is expected that the results of the reform will drive continuous improvement in production capacity; the value ratio of the company's individual insurance channels is 5.4 to 30.6% year on year, mainly due to lower pricing interest rates and active long-term insurance policy sales to drive business structure improvements. YoY 9.4% 2) Banking insurance and multi-channel NBV were 80.6% year-on-year, mainly due to rate control under the influence of banking insurance's “integration of reporting and banking” and value ratio improvements brought about by drastic reduction in banking insurance transactions. The banking insurance value ratio increased 13.4 points over the same period last year. The company's business quality continued to improve. The 14-month/26-month insurance policy continuation rate was 91.5%/84.4%, respectively, 2.3 pt/5.1 pt, respectively, while the withdrawal rate narrowed by 0.17 pt to 0.48%.
The net return on investment declined slightly due to the decline in long-term interest rates, and the medium- to long-term equity investment layout boosted the total return on investment: 24H1's investment assets were 6.09 trillion yuan, up 7.3% from the beginning of the year, which mainly contributed to the growth of debt-side premiums. Affected by the decline in return on investment in fixed income assets due to the decline in long-term interest rates, the company's annualized net return on investment was -0.70pt to 3.03% year on year; thanks to the equity asset investment strategy represented by high dividends, the company's total annualized investment income was 0.25pt to 3.59% year-on-year.
Catalyst: Long-term interest rates have rebounded steadily in anticipation of economic recovery.
Risk warning: Stricter regulations; long-term interest rates decline, equity markets fluctuate.