Q2 运价大幅增长，收入同比增长。1H2024 公司营业收入同比增长10.2%，主要由于欧美提前补库存、新兴市场货量增长、红海局势持续发酵等多重因素共同作用影响，集装箱航运市场呈现需求增长、有效供给不足的局面，市场运价水平持续上涨。CCFI 指数1H2024 同比增长35.2%，其中Q2 同比增速更是达到了53.4%。分量价来看，公司集运货运量为1246 万TEU，同比增长9.3%，其中外贸航线货运量984.2 万TEU，同比增长4.9%；估算公司外贸航线单箱收入为1211 美元/TEU，同比增长4.4%。Brief performance review
On August 29, 2024, COSCO Offshore Control released its 2024 semi-annual report. 1H2024 achieved operating income of 101.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.19%; net profit to mother was 16.87 billion yuan, an increase of 1.87% year-on-year. Among them, Q2 achieved operating income of 52.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.0%; realized net profit to mother of 10.12 billion yuan, an increase of 7.23% over the previous year.
Management analysis
Q2 Freight rates increased significantly, and revenue increased year over year. 1H2024's revenue increased 10.2% year-on-year, mainly due to the combined effects of multiple factors such as early inventory replenishment in Europe and the US, the increase in cargo volume in emerging markets, and the continued fermentation of the Red Sea situation. The container shipping market showed an increase in demand and insufficient effective supply, and the market freight rate level continued to rise. The CCFI index 1H2024 increased 35.2% year over year, with the Q2 growth rate reaching 53.4% year over year. In terms of volume price, the company's consolidated cargo volume was 12.46 millionTEU, up 9.3% year on year, of which the foreign trade route freight volume was 9.842 millionteU, up 4.9% year on year; it is estimated that the company's foreign trade route revenue is 1,211 US dollars/TEU, up 4.4% year on year.
Gross profit margin increased year over year, and expense ratio increased year over year. 1H2024 achieved a gross profit margin of 23.5%, an increase of 1.28 pct over the previous year, mainly due to rising foreign trade freight rates, which led to an increase in the company's gross margin.
In terms of cost ratio, the 1H2024 company's cost rate for the period was 2.85%, up 3.05 pct year on year, of which sales rate was 0.45%, down 0.03 pct year on year; management expense ratio was 3.58%, up 0.17 pct year on year; R&D expenses rate was 0.50%, down 0.02 pct year on year; and financial expense ratio was -1.67%, up 2.98 pct year on year. 1H2024 achieved investment income of 2.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.65%. Affected by the increase in the expense ratio, 1H2024's net interest rate to mother was 16.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.36 pct.
The mid-term dividend payout ratio reached 49.2%, and the fleet structure continued to be optimized. For 1H2024, the company plans to pay a dividend of 0.52 yuan per share. It is estimated that the total cash dividend due to be paid is 8.3 billion yuan, which is approximately 49.2% of the company's net profit from 1H2024. The three-year shareholder return plan announced by the company promises that the total dividends for 2022 to 2024 should account for 30-50% of net profit attributable to mother. The company accelerated the implementation of fleet structure optimization. Five 24188 TEU energy-saving ships and 3 14,100 TEU Latin American extreme ships were delivered successively, and invested in the main routes between Asia and Europe and the emerging markets of South America, respectively. As of 1H2024, the capacity of the company's self-operated container fleet reached 3.24 million TEUs, an increase of 6.5% over the beginning of the period, and the fleet size continues to be at the top of the industry.
Profit Forecasts and Ratings
Considering the positive freight rate in the container market, the 2024-2026 net profit forecast was adjusted to 45.2 billion yuan, 19.9 billion yuan, and 17.2 billion yuan (originally 20.2 billion yuan, 18.2 billion yuan, 15.7 billion yuan). Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Demand growth has slowed, industry competition has intensified, capacity supply has increased, cost pressure has increased, and the trade pattern has changed.
