传统黄金及黄金一口价产品增长亮眼，女包处调整中。分品类看，1H24 传统黄金营收14.8 亿元、占比43%（+5.64PCT），同比+31.4%；时尚珠宝营收16.5 亿元、占比48.2%、同比+6%，主要系黄金一口价产品拉动，K 金类产品仍有承压；女包营收1.48 亿元、同比-26.1%、有所承压；代理品牌授权及加盟服务收入1.23 亿元、同比+41%（延续快增）。On August 27, the company announced 1H24 revenue/net profit/net profit deducted from non-net profit of 3.43/0.229/0.225 billion yuan, +14%/+10% compared to the same period last year. The interim cash dividend is 0.1 yuan per share, and the dividend ratio is 38.7%.
Q2 Performance exceeded expectations. 2Q24's revenue was 1.635 billion yuan, +10.33% YoY, better than the overall performance of the industry (2Q24, China's gold, silver and jewellery retail sales +1.4% YoY in absolute terms), net profit to mother was 0.099 billion yuan, +16.8% YoY, net profit after deducting net profit of 0.097 billion yuan, +17% YoY.
Due to changes in product and channel structure, gross margin declined year-on-year, expenses for continuous franchise expansion and optimization of self-operated sales declined year-on-year, and the overall profit level increased slightly year-on-year. 2Q24 gross profit margin 23.3%, year-on-year -2,4PCT, month-on-month sales expenses ratio 11.3%, year-on-year -3.2PCT (mainly due to reduction in employee remuneration), remained flat month-on-month, and management expenses ratio was +0.15PCT to 2% year over year; deducted non-net interest rate 5.9%, -0.3 PCT year on year.
Traditional gold and gold one-price products have grown significantly, and women's bags are being adjusted. By category, 1H24's traditional gold revenue was 1.48 billion yuan, accounting for 43% (+5.64PCT), +31.4%; fashion jewelry revenue was 1.65 billion yuan, accounting for 48.2%, +6% year over year, mainly driven by gold one-price products, K gold products were still under pressure; women's bag revenue was 0.148 billion yuan, -26.1% year on year, under pressure; agency brand licensing and franchise service revenue was 0.123 billion yuan, +41% year over year (continued rapid increase).
Self-employment continues to be optimized, and franchise expansion progresses in an orderly manner. The net increase in the number of 1H24 jewelry business stores was 52 to 1,451, of which the net number of self-operated stores decreased by 17 to 257 (8 new and 25 closed), and the net number of franchisees increased by 69 to 1,194.
Looking at the medium to long term, 1) Continuously improve product strength: position products in national trend/fashion, update and iterate strong brand imprint products, optimize the IP series product layout, strengthen the core advantages of beaded products, and create differentiation and popularity among young people; 2) Expand franchise channels: the goal of 2000 jewelry stores remained the same in 25 years.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
Considering that there is still some pressure on the growth of the women's bag business, high fluctuations in gold prices disrupt terminal sales of gold products, and the profit forecast was lowered. The net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 3.82//0.456/0.525 billion yuan, +15% compared to the same period last year. The corresponding PE is 9.5/7.9/6.9 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Terminal consumption is weak, franchise expansion falls short of expectations, and sharp fluctuations in gold prices.
