维持“增持”评级。公司 24 年上半年实现收入 79.12 亿元，同比+14.92%，归母净利润8.11 亿元，同比+25.23%，符合预期。考虑到地产竣工下行压力仍在，下调公司2024-26 年eps 至0.44(-0.31)/0.45(-0.45)/0.58(-0.47)元，参考可比公司24 年PE 为15.32 倍，下调目标价至6.74 元。Introduction to this report:
The company's 2024 mid-year report is in line with expectations. The float and photovoltaic glass sectors are all facing downward price pressure, but the company maintains leading cost competitiveness, and is expected to gradually bottom out as the cold repair of industry production lines accelerates.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. The company achieved revenue of 7.912 billion yuan in the first half of '24, +14.92% year-on-year, and net profit to mother of 0.811 billion yuan, +25.23% year-on-year, in line with expectations. Considering that the downward pressure on real estate completion is still ongoing, the company's EPS was lowered to 0.44 (-0.31) /0.45 (-0.45) /0.58 (-0.47) yuan in 2024-26, referring to the comparable company's PE in 24, 15.32 times, and the target price was lowered to 6.74 yuan.
Q2 The profit of the float industry is rapidly narrowing, and the company's profit remains leading. 24H1 achieved float glass sales of 48.82 million heavy boxes, of which 24Q2 achieved sales of about 27 million heavy boxes, maintaining more than 100% production and sales, indicating that the company maintained strong shipping capacity under weak terminal demand. We expect the company's average net profit for float boxes in Q2 to be around 10 yuan, down 7 yuan/heavy box compared to Q1. Since March, actual orders to resume work have been weak compared to the same period. The cumulative price of glass factory warehouses has declined. At the same time, after entering the second quarter, the price of glass fell faster than soda ash, leading to an accelerated narrowing of glass profits. Looking at July-August, demand for glass terminals is still weak. We expect the industry to have entered an average book loss, and the company's differentiated products such as colored glass and ultra-white are still supported by profit.
Production and sales of photovoltaic glass Q2 weakened month-on-month, and the pressure to reduce prices was fed back in Q3. In 24H1, the company achieved 0.185 billion flat sales of photovoltaic glass. According to the calculation, Q2 company's PV glass sales volume was 90 million flat, which was basically flat compared to Q1, but the company's total production capacity expanded, which meant that Q2 photovoltaic glass production and sales weakened month-on-month. On the profit side, glass prices rebounded in March-April, but in late May, as component production schedules declined, glass prices quickly pulled back. As a result, overall Q2 glass prices remained flat compared to Q1. The company's profit per square meter is expected to be about 1.2 yuan. Since July-August, the entire photovoltaic glass industry has been at a loss. With the rapid increase in cold repair production capacity, there is limited room for further price decline.
The advantage of the glass industry is that the clearance mechanism is more market-based, and the company maintains an excellent governance structure and incentive mechanism. As construction pressure is transferred to completion, and float glass production capacity is still high, we expect 24 years of float to be high and low. Although the current downward trend of glass lags slightly behind other commodities, the advantage of glass is that enterprises in the industry are mainly private, less concentrated, and the clearance mechanism is more market-based. The Kibing executive team has completed iterations, and the board of directors is dominated by professional former executive team members. It is expected that they will move through the cycle with excellent governance capabilities.
Risk warning: Glass cold repair is slower than expected, and the price increase of raw fuel exceeds expectations