特斯拉 Model Y 是去年全球最畅销车型。我们独家获悉，特斯拉计划明年交付两款改款 Model Y。其中，内部代号为 “Juniper” 的 5 座版焕新 Model Y 预计一季度交付；另一款是 7 座版 Model Y，预计四季度交付。Source:LatePost
By Li Zinan and He Qianming
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$No new cars this year, will have to rely on the Model Y in the next two years.
Tesla's Model Y was the best-selling model globally last year. We exclusively learned that Tesla plans to deliver two redesigned versions of the Model Y next year. Among them, the 5-seat refreshed Model Y with the internal codename "Juniper" is expected to be delivered in the first quarter; another version is the 7-seat Model Y, expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter.
Without new car models, fine-tuning popular models will not go wrong. Relying on the existing mature supply chain for rapid mass production with lower capital expenditures. Most importantly, these models can be manufactured at Tesla's Shanghai plant with the lowest production cost. However, the progress of the redesigned Model Y is significantly behind Tesla's previous plan. According to the schedule, both models should have been delivered this year.
The refreshed version of the Model Y is expected to have similar changes to the redesigned Model 3, with minor adjustments to the overall vehicle appearance and size, as well as modifications to the interior, autonomous driving hardware, and battery capacity.
The 7-seater Model Y will be adjusted based on the refreshed Model Y, and there are currently no configuration details. Referring to the current 7-seater Model Y in the USA, it will have a 2-3-2 three-row layout.
In addition, information from the supply chain indicates that Tesla is also preparing a compact two-door version of the Model Y, expected to be released in 2025, complete production preparation in the third quarter, and delivered in 2026. It is originally based on Tesla's next-generation vehicle platform, but is now being adjusted based on the Model Y.
We have requested confirmation from Tesla China regarding the above information, but as of the time of writing, we have not received a response.
The 7-seater Model Y may have a 'China Special Edition.'
The externally body size of the 5-seater and 7-seater Model Y currently being sold in the USA is the same, and the door opening method has not changed. The 7-seater version requires a $3500 (about 0.025 million RMB) optional fee.
The second row of the car has 3 seats that can be folded forward and slid back and forth, making it convenient to adjust and allow access to the two seats in the third row. However, the space in the third row is slightly cramped, with 4 centimeters less legroom in the second row compared to the 5-seater Model Y. Some overseas car owners say that children aged 4-15 can basically sit, but people over 1.5 meters will feel inconvenient. Also, the third row does not have a fixed child safety seat system, so only seat belts can be used to secure child seats. When the third row is not in use, the seats can be folded into the trunk without significantly affecting the trunk space, and the seats only weigh a few tens of kilograms with limited impact on the range.
But individuals close to Tesla China have stated that the Chinese version of the 7-seater Model Y is almost a 'special edition' model tailored to the Chinese market, different from the currently sold 7-seater Model Y in the USA, with unknown details. It is not yet clear whether the wheelbase will be lengthened to better accommodate three rows of seats. Informed sources have stated that it is precisely because the Chinese version of the 7-seater Model Y differs in many ways from the version currently being delivered by Tesla in North America, that it will be produced and launched on the market in the fourth quarter of next year.
The vehicle will vary significantly from the version currently being delivered by Tesla in North America. Therefore, it will be put into production and launched on the market in the fourth quarter of next year.
From$Li Auto (LI.US)$通过 6 座车型理想 ONE 打通 “奶爸车” 市场后，6 座的新能源 SUV 几乎成为中国独有的热销细分车型。目前理想、$BYD Company Limited (002594.SZ)$、问界、$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$等车企都推出了相关车型。这些车型都比 Model Y 更注重舒适性，它们普遍配备带加热、通风功能的按摩座椅。
特斯拉期望这款车能挽回它在中国市场的竞争颓势。一位供应链人士称，在 7 座 Model Y 上，特斯拉给供应商的销量指引约 0.02 million辆 / 月。
It is planned to rely on the redesigned Model Y to reverse the downturn in sales.
Tesla's turbulent situation since early 2024 has disrupted the original redesign plan. In March, Musk scrapped the code-named "RedWood" compact car project during an internal meeting. The refreshed version of Model Y, originally code-named "Opal", also suffered setbacks due to severe job cuts.
A Model Y parts supplier once told us that Tesla China's procurement team, which they were working with, was reduced to only one intern in April this year, and he even asked us if we were hiring.
Tesla's capacity expansion plan has also been delayed. According to our understanding, Tesla's super factory in Mexico will not start construction until after the US presidential election this year, and will be put into operation in 2026. UBS and other institutions estimate that Tesla's sales growth this year and next year is expected to be less than 20%.
Since then, Tesla has shifted its resources and focus to FSD (Full Self-Driving) and Robotaxi. Musk said on a Q1 earnings call this year that Tesla will invest $10 billion in autonomous driving algorithm training this year, but later sparked speculation from the outside world about his use of public company resources to support non-public company projects.
Moreover, the progress of FSD in China is also behind Tesla's expectations. An insider close to Tesla said that Tesla originally planned to start small-scale testing of FSD in China in September this year, but the timing of this test has been delayed.
Since the beginning of this year, while the NASDAQ Index has risen more than 10%, Tesla's stock price has fallen by more than 17%. About 80% of its revenue still comes from manufacturing and selling cars. However, Tesla's sales still rely on the Model 3, which has been on the market for 7 years, and the Model Y, which has been on the market for 5 years.
Tesla, with no new cars to sell, reported its worst performance in 6 years in the second quarter of this year. It only sold 0.444 million vehicles in the entire second quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%, and the gross margin on automotive sales decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 14.6%, the lowest in 18 quarters. Net income plummeted by 45% year-on-year to $1.478 billion, far below market expectations.
The delivery of the refreshed Model Y may rekindle consumer demand. After Tesla delivered the refreshed Model 3 in September last year, although the price increased by 0.028 million compared to the old model, the sales volume also outperformed the previous model. Last month, the sales of the refreshed Model 3 reached 0.0327 million units, a 60% increase compared to the same period last year when the old model 3 was sold.
Some individuals close to Tesla said that Tesla China does not have the authority to adjust vehicle prices and cannot lower prices without Elon Musk's approval. The best way for Tesla China to maintain sales volume currently is by offering a 5-year interest-free car loan incentive. "Reducing car prices would impact Tesla's automotive gross margin, which is the most crucial indicator on Wall Street besides sales volume and directly affects Tesla's stock price. Providing interest-free loans, though a form of price reduction, does not affect the sales margin." explained one investor.
Editor/Emily
