尽管英伟达股价在盘前跌幅降至3%，但Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.
The market performed relatively calmly on Thursday morning, as investors speculated that the AI revolution has not yet subsided, and the money market bet that the Fed's interest rate cut this year could reach 100 basis points, which reassured them.
Despite the fact that $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The announced second-quarter sales revenue continued to double and exceeded expectations, but this quarter's guidance failed to meet Wall Street's most optimistic expectations, and there are reports that production issues have arisen with the heavily promoted Blackwell chip. This was enough to throw the market into turmoil overnight, and subsequently, the company's stock price fell more than 8% after hours. But the market performed relatively calmly on Thursday morning, as investors speculated that the AI revolution has not yet subsided, and the money market bet that the Fed's interest rate cut this year could reach 100 basis points, which reassured them.
Although Nvidia's stock price fell by 3% before the market opened, it is expected to rise (about 1.3% below its all-time high), and futures are up 0.2%. In Europe, the STOXX 600 index is hovering near its historical high, while the Germany DAX index has reached a new high.$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$Despite Nvidia's stock price falling by 3% pre-market, there is hope for a rise (about 1.3% below its all-time high), and futures are up 0.2%. In Europe, the STOXX 600 index is hovering near its historical high, while the German DAX index has reached a new high.
Nvidia's revenue exceeds $30 billion, with a profit margin exceeding 50%, and the company promises that profit margins will further increase in the coming quarters. Investors hope for more performance from this company as it has exceeded analyst expectations for six consecutive quarters.
However, these numbers are enough to make investors speculate that there is still strong demand for Nvidia's artificial intelligence engine across industries, proving that placing more bets in the technology sector is warranted.
Kairos Partners Portfolio Manager, Alberto Tocchio, said: "If anyone was worried about disappointing demand for artificial intelligence, that concern has now dissipated. Of course, we are talking about a stock with a significant increase, but what we can be certain of is that there is still demand in this industry."
In recent weeks, the cooling of inflation, relative economic stability, and the optimistic mood of the market due to the Fed's rate cut have boosted market sentiment. On Friday, the market will welcome the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is also the Fed's favorite inflation indicator.
Technological factors have also provided broader support for the stock market. Scott Rubner, Managing Director and Tactical Specialist of Goldman Sachs Global Market, predicted on Monday that the S&P 500 index will reach a historic high this week, due to the significant inflow of systematic funds and corporate buybacks.
In fact, stock options trading shows that investors have been preparing for profit since the sell-off in early August due to concerns about the U.S. economic recession.
Charlie McElligott, Cross-Asset Strategy Strategist at Nomura, indicated that the call skewness of the S&P 500 index (a measure of how much traders are willing to pay for call options) is rapidly increasing. This indicates a certain urgency in grabbing call options after Fed Chairman Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole.
Meanwhile, volatility traders are providing options dealers with excess underwriting, underwriting, and direct volatility selling. This means that the dealers hold long gamma positions, acting as a market stabilizer because they need to buy futures when the stock market falls.
The rebound of Nasdaq 100 futures on Thursday continued the trend of this week, where the contract declined during regular trading hours and then rebounded overnight. However, this is a put signal, and the overall market trend is still downward. The Nasdaq 100 index is more than 6% lower than its historical high set in July.
Regarding the reaction to Nvidia, William Marsters, Senior Sales Trader at Goldman Sachs in the United Kingdom, stated that Wednesday's stock price decline may have been an "overreaction".
"Investors have become accustomed to excellent performance," Marsters said, "The real test will be during today's regular trading hours, which will more clearly reflect customer reactions."
The Fed's bet on rate cuts also helps reduce the market's dependence on large-cap tech stocks. For example, small-cap stocks and unprofitable tech stocks have seen inflows of funds as lower borrowing costs will boost their profits. The expansion of the S&P 500 index is evident in versions that remove market cap bias. Last week, the equal-weighted index hit a new all-time high.
Craig Johnson, Chief Market Technician at Piper Sandler & Co., said, "As the market continues to expand, futures prices continue to rise. It is no longer just a problem of the seven giant stocks, and Nvidia did not miss the heavily delayed Blackwell release, which is a relief."
Editor / jayden
