重视深化两广地区布局，养殖成本有望进一步优化。2024H1 公司累计出栏生猪109.24 万头（其中对外销售92.01 万头，向内部屠宰企业销售17.23 万头），同比+62.83%，出栏增速较快。上半年公司商品猪销售均价14.70 元/kg，同比+5.60%，其中6 月销售均价上涨至17.42 元/kg，环比+16.29%，预期下半年均价将保持上行趋势为公司提供更高业绩增长。据公司最新养殖数据，7 月养殖完全成本下行至13.7 元/kg，较Q1 减少0.8元/kg；7 月末能繁母猪保有量10.4 万头，较3 月末增长约15.6%。同时，公司持续加强在两广地区的布局建设，目前在广西地区已布局多个猪场及服务部，且大新饲料基地已顺利竣工。预期随着公司布局逐渐深化，两广地区区域优势将带动公司养殖成本进一步下降。Incident: The company released its 2024 semi-annual report. 2024H1 achieved operating income of 2.494 billion yuan, +46.04% year over year; realized net profit of 0.124 billion yuan, +146.98% year over year; EPS 0.24 yuan/share, +147.06% year over year.
Comment:
Q2 led to a reversal of losses in the first half of the year, and the feed business fluctuated slightly. The company's overall performance in the first half of the year reversed losses. On a quarterly basis, Q2 revenue for a single quarter was 1.412 billion yuan, +73.88% year over month, and +30.46% month over month; net profit to mother was 0.128 billion yuan, +180.73% year over year, and +3675.94% month on month. By business, thanks to the recovery of the pig industry and the increase in the company's sales volume and slaughter volume, the breeding business and slaughter business achieved revenue of 1.941 billion yuan and 0.711 billion yuan respectively in the first half of the year, +68.64% and +34.66%. Due to the degeneration of the pig industry and fluctuations in raw material prices, the company's feed sales declined, achieving revenue of 1.055 billion yuan, or -5.47% year over year.
Emphasis is placed on deepening the layout of the Liangguang region, and farming costs are expected to be further optimized. 2024H1 sold a total of 1.0924 million pigs (of which 0.9201 million heads were sold abroad and 0.1723 million heads were sold to internal slaughter companies), +62.83% over the same period last year, and the listing growth rate was relatively fast. The average sales price of the company's commercial pigs in the first half of the year was 14.70 yuan/kg, +5.60% year over year. Among them, the average sales price rose to 17.42 yuan/kg in June, +16.29% month-on-month. It is expected that the average price will maintain an upward trend in the second half of the year to provide the company with higher performance growth. According to the company's latest breeding data, the total cost of farming fell to 13.7 yuan/kg in July, a decrease of 0.8 yuan/kg compared to Q1; the number of sows that can be raised at the end of July was 0.104 million, an increase of about 15.6% over the end of March. At the same time, the company continues to strengthen its layout and construction in the Liangguang region. Currently, it has set up several pig farms and service departments in Guangxi, and the Daxin Feed Base has been successfully completed. It is expected that as the company's layout gradually deepens, the regional advantages of the Liangguang region will drive the company's farming costs down further.
The capital structure has been stable for a long time, and cash flow has improved markedly. The company has maintained steady development for a long time. At the end of Q2, the balance ratio increased slightly to 30.78%, which is still at a low level; the net cash flow from H1 operating activities increased sharply to 0.296 billion yuan. Judging from the cost rate for the period, the company's sales/management/ financial/ R&D expenses ratio for the first half of the year was 1.26%/6.00%/0.61%/0.27%, respectively, -0.43pct/-1.90pct/+0.32pct.
Profit forecast and investment rating: We expect the company to achieve revenue of 6.398, 9.229, and 9.979 billion yuan in 2024-2026, and realized net profit of 0.57, 1.113, and 1.232 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding PE for 2025-2026 is 12.84 and 11.61x, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: risk of production capacity release falling short of expectations; risk of fluctuating pig prices; risk of epidemic diseases in the breeding industry.