In August, the US stock market experienced a V-shaped trend: the S&P 500 index plummeted in the first three trading days of the month, but then steadily rebounded and is now back near its all-time high, while the Dow has reached a new record high.

There are several reasons behind this sell-off, including the unwinding of yen carry trades and weak US non-farm payroll data for July, which has raised concerns about a recession in the US economy.

The rapid rebound of the US stock market can be attributed to two factors: investor confidence in a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and the release of positive economic data that has reignited hopes for a soft landing of the US economy.

Looking ahead to September, there will still be many significant events in the US stock market: Apple will hold a product launch event, unveiling the first AI iPhone; the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, with a rate cut seeming increasingly likely; and the "Hart First Debate" is expected to open on September 10, with the US presidential election remaining a key factor impacting the stock market.

Specifically:

On September 2nd, the US stock market was closed for Labor Day.

On September 10th, Apple will hold a product launch event, with the focus expected to be Apple Intelligence, an AI tool that will be integrated into all new iPhones.

On September 11th, after several struggles, current Vice President Harris and former President Trump finally confirmed the first debate time, which is scheduled to be held on ABC in the United States as originally planned.

On September 19, the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision and the summary of economic projections, followed by Powell's monetary policy press conference.

Historically, if interest rate cuts are made against the backdrop of economic recovery rather than a sharp economic slowdown, the stock market tends to perform much better. Strategists at Evercore ISI noted that since 1970, during non-recessionary periods, the S&P 500 index has on average climbed 18% one year after the initial interest rate cut. In contrast, during economic recessions, the index has only risen an average of 2% one year after the initial rate cut.

In addition, a series of heavyweight economic data will also be disclosed one after another, including non-farm payrolls, CPI, PPI, PCE, ISM, etc.

Editor/Somer