营收表现整体符合预期，传统外饰略超预期、电池盒业务略低于预期。公司上半年营收合计111 亿元、同比+14%、环比+2.9%，符合预期。传统外饰合计78亿元、同比+10%、环比-7%，金属及饰条、塑件和铝件营收分别为25、28、24亿元，同比分别+1.2%、+14%、+14%，受益于北美及亚太塑件和国内自主新能源客户铝件拓展放量，表现好于此前预期。电池盒及结构件24 亿元、同比+33%、环比+24%，略低于预期，估计主要仍受到欧洲电动车销量低于预期的影响。Matters:
The company released its 2024 mid-year report, with revenue of 11.1 billion yuan/ +14% for the first half of the year, and net profit of 1.07 billion yuan/ +20%.
Commentary:
Overall revenue performance was in line with expectations, with the traditional exterior slightly exceeding expectations and the battery case business slightly falling short of expectations. The company's total revenue for the first half of the year was 11.1 billion yuan, +14% year over year and +2.9% month over month, in line with expectations. Traditional exterior decoration totaled 7.8 billion yuan, +10% year over month, and -7% month-on-month. Revenue from metal and trim, plastic parts and aluminum parts was 2.5, 2.8, and 2.4 billion yuan respectively, +1.2%, +14% year over year, benefiting from the expansion of plastic parts in North America and Asia Pacific and aluminum parts from domestic independent new energy customers, and the performance was better than previous expectations. Battery boxes and structural components were 2.4 billion yuan, +33% YoY and +24% month-on-month, slightly lower than expected. It is estimated that European electric vehicle sales are still below expectations.
Profit performance is in line with expectations, gross margin is relatively stable, and rising freight rates have dragged down costs. The company's 1H24 gross margin was 28.5%, +2.2PP, unchanged month-on-month, including traditional exterior: 28.2%, year-on-year +0.6PP, month-on-month -1.3PP, battery case 20.6%, year-on-year +2.7PP, and month-on-month +1.3PP. The sales rate was 4.8%, +0.8PP month-on-month. The increase was mainly affected by higher prices and higher freight rates in the global shipping market; the management rate was 6.7%, -1.0PP, the R&D rate was 6.4%, and the month-on-month -1.0PP was also driven by economies of scale and good cost control conditions. In the end, the company's 1H24 was worth 1.07 billion yuan, +20% year-on-year and +5.1% month-on-month. The net profit margin to mother was 9.6%, +0.5PP year over year and +0.2PP month on month, all improving year over month.
Future growth will still depend on the volume of battery cases and other new products, and the growth trend outlook is stable. The company has been in a period of alternating growth between old and new products in the past five years. In the second half of 2022, the company began to enter a period driven by the release of new products, mainly battery cases. Although sales volume in the past year was affected by European electric vehicles being lower than expected, it still provided the company with a considerable growth rate. Currently, on the revenue side of the company, on the one hand, is driven by the continuous volume of revenue from the battery box business, while the structural parts business is also continuously expanding categories, and traditional exteriors are also continuously acquiring independent customers to enhance hedging against joint venture customers; the profit side mainly benefits from the improvement in gross profit margin and cost ratio of new businesses, as well as improvements in economies of scale due to the end of a high-intensity investment cycle. Under the new trend of electric intelligence, as the world's leading supplier of traditional exterior decoration, we continue to achieve steady growth by relying on excellent single product R&D and manufacturing, multi-business management, and global operation capabilities.
Investment advice: Considering cost factors such as the European electric vehicle release process falling short of expectations and rising freight rates, we adjusted the company's 2024-2025 net profit forecast from 2.46 billion yuan and 3.27 billion yuan to 2.2 billion yuan and 2.58 billion yuan, and introduced the 2026 forecast 3.1 billion yuan, with growth rates of 16%, +17%, and +20%, respectively, corresponding to 5.9 times, 5.0 times, and 4.2 times PE. Taking into account comparable company valuations, accurate historical valuation ranges, and Hong Kong stock market characteristics, the company was given a target PE of 8 times for 2024, corresponding to a target price of HK$16.6, to maintain a “strong” rating.
Risk warning: New product orders fall short of expectations, European new energy sales fall short of expectations, domestic joint ventures are declining too fast, progress in integrated die-cast battery box technology is accelerating, exchange rate/freight/raw material prices fluctuation, etc.
