公司收入减少主要是贸易量下降，但公司贡献主要盈利的电解铝和氧化铝板块均实现增长。24H1 公司原铝收入681.83 亿元，同比+20.53%，产/销量分别为363/359 万吨，同比分别+18.63%/+17.32%，云南复产及内蒙古华云三期42 万吨投产带动量增，后续青海分公司50 万吨电解铝项目有序推进，公司电解铝板块仍具增量空间。氧化铝板块公司24H1收入314.35 亿元，同比+46.21%，氧化铝产量1027 万吨，同比+1.58%。China Aluminum Releases Semi-Annual Report for 2024
The company 24H1 achieved revenue of 110.718 billion yuan, or -17.4% year on year; realized net profit of 7.016 billion yuan, +105.36% year over year; of these, single Q2 achieved net profit of 4.786 billion yuan to mother, +198.45% year over year, and +114.6% month on month.
Alumina revenue also increased 46%, highlighting the advantages of integration
The decline in the company's revenue was mainly due to a decline in trade volume, but both the electrolytic aluminum and alumina sectors, where the company contributed the main profit, grew. 24H1's raw aluminum revenue was 68.183 billion yuan, +20.53% year-on-year, and production/sales volume was 3.63/3.59 million tons, respectively, +18.63%/+17.32% year over year. The resumption of production in Yunnan and the 0.42 million ton commissioning of Inner Mongolia Huayun Phase III led to an increase in volume. Subsequently, the 0.5 million ton electrolytic aluminum project of the Qinghai branch progressed in an orderly manner, and the company's electrolytic aluminum sector still had room for growth. The alumina sector company 24H1 earned 31.435 billion yuan, +46.21% year over year, and alumina production was 10.27 million tons, +1.58% year over year.
In terms of price, the average price of 24H1 domestic alumina was 3507.52 yuan/ton, +21.27%. Affected by disruptions in overseas supply, the suspension of production in some domestic bauxite mines, and production cuts in some alumina plants, alumina prices remained high this year. On August 29, 2024, the average domestic price of alumina reached 3,939 yuan/ton. The company has the highest alumina production capacity in the world, and has bauxite supply domestically and in Guinea. It has a stable source of raw materials in the face of upstream disturbances, and the advantages of integration continue.
The upward price of alumina & electrolytic aluminum combined cost control, and the profit margin of the sector increased markedly. 24H1 achieved gross sales margin/net profit margin of 17.26%/10.2%, respectively, +7.73/+6.03 pcts year-on-year, respectively. By sector, 24H1 achieved profit of 4.21 billion yuan (YoY +223.07%), profit margin 13.6% (YoY +7.4pcts); Raw Aluminum Division 24H1 profit of 7.595 billion yuan (YoY +92.67%), with a profit margin of 11.1% (+4.2pcts yoy). The price of 24H1 domestic electrolytic aluminum rose by about 7%. The company strengthened cost control, reduced the cost of self-generation, and sought the lowest electricity price to achieve cost reduction and profit.
Asset quality optimization, mid-term dividends to give back to shareholders
As of the end of the 24H1 period, the company's balance ratio was 49.97%, -3.33 pcts. This is the first time in nearly ten years that it has fallen below 50%. The company used monetary capital generated from operations to further repay interest-bearing debts, and asset quality continued to improve. The company plans to distribute cash dividends to all shareholders at RMB 0.82 (tax included) for every 10 shares. This is the first time that a mid-term profit distribution plan has been implemented, with a dividend ratio of about 20%.
Investment advice
We expect the company's net profit to be 14.032/16.186/16.957 billion yuan in 2024-2026 (previous value was 8.043/9.669/11.178 billion yuan, based on the increase in alumina prices), and the corresponding PE will be 8/7/7 times higher, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Prices of electrolytic aluminum and alumina fell sharply; energy costs fluctuated greatly; capacity release fell short of expectations; downstream demand fell short of expectations, etc.
