公司2024H1 营收8.92 亿元（同增5%），归母净利润0.59亿元（同增6%），扣非归母净利润为0.59 亿元（同增11%）。2024Q2 公司营收4.29 亿元（同增2%），归母净利润0.25 亿元（同减3%），扣非归母净利润0.25 亿元（同增8%），业绩表现不及预期。盈利端，2024Q2 公司毛利率同增2pct 至24.95%，主要系上游资源整合后采购成本优化、自动化改造提升生产效率所致， 销售/ 管理费用率同增0.5pct/2pct 至5.13%/10.47%，主要系公司加大线上平台费用投放，同时团队人员扩充/社保基数调整导致职工薪酬大幅增加所致，综合来看，净利率同减0.3pct 至5.67%。On August 27, 2024, Chef Senmiyo released the 2024 semi-annual report.
Key points of investment
Second-quarter profits were under pressure, and supply chain efficiency optimization boosted gross profit
The company's 2024H1 revenue was 0.892 billion yuan (up 5%), net profit attributable to mother was 0.059 billion yuan (same increase of 6%), and net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 0.059 billion yuan (same increase of 11%). 2024Q2's revenue was 0.429 billion yuan (up 2% from the same period), net profit due to mother was 0.025 billion yuan (same decrease of 3%), and net profit not attributable to mother was 0.025 billion yuan (same increase of 8%). The performance fell short of expectations. On the profit side, 2024Q2's gross margin also increased by 2 pct to 24.95%, mainly due to procurement cost optimization and automated transformation to improve production efficiency after integrating upstream resources, and the sales/management expenses ratio increased by 0.5 pct/2pct to 5.13%/10.47%, mainly due to the company increasing online platform expenses, and a significant increase in employee remuneration due to team staff expansion/social security base adjustments. Taken together, the net margin also decreased by 0.3 pct to 5.67%.
Accelerate the penetration of prepared food products and promote the development of lower back customers
The growth rate of deep-fried and baked products from core customers has slowed, and the penetration rate of cooking products for group meals has increased. The revenue of 2024H1's deep-fried products/bakery products was 0.374/0.17 billion yuan, down 4%/8% respectively. The core single product, sesame balls, declined due to increased market competition; revenue from cooking products was 0.211 billion yuan (same increase 32%), mainly due to the company's products represented by pictograms benefiting from the rapid development of the group meal market and the continuous increase in penetration rate; the revenue of dishes and other products was 0.133 billion yuan (same increase of 19%), mainly provided by the company to key customers While customizing products, we also develop group meal/banquet scenarios. The largest customer is operating under pressure from a high base, increasing the development of lower back customers. 2024H1's direct channel revenue was 0.412 billion yuan (same increase of 9%), and the largest customer revenue was 0.188 billion yuan (same decrease of 13%), mainly due to the high base for the same period in 2023. In the first half of the year, major customers increased their promotional efforts, and the cost pressure was transmitted upward. The company plans to increase the guaranteed share of competitive investment. Major customers resumed growth in June-August. As the company accelerates the new frequency, the B-side is expected to stabilize. At the same time, the company focuses on increasing the development of direct lower back customers and opening up new customer growth. 2024H1's distribution channel revenue was 0.476 billion yuan (same increase of 2%). The company continued to expand the sales team and supporting personnel to directly connect terminals to help dealers develop night market/small hot pot scenarios. Q3 entered the school season, and the company launched group meal tenders to enhance the competitive advantage of the small B-side through multiple channels.
Profit forecasting
We believe that the upward promotion pressure from major customers has put a phased pressure on the company's performance. In the short term, the business pace of major customers returned to normal in June-August, and the company actively participated in bidding to guarantee a share. In the medium to long term, the company actively expanded waist customers, compounded the increase in the penetration rate of prepared dishes, and is expected to continue to contribute more. According to the semi-annual report, we adjusted the 2024-2026 EPS to 1.42/1.66/1.93 (previous value was 1.70/2.13/2.59), respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 17/14/12 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” investment rating.
Risk warning
Downside macroeconomic risks, rising raw materials risk, B-side recovery falling short of expectations, C-side progress falling short of expectations, etc.
