Incidents:
The company disclosed the 2024 semi-annual report, achieving revenue of 4.604 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.19%; net profit to mother of 0.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.97%; net profit after deducting 0.505 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 67.24%; a single Q2 revenue of 2.082 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.10%; net profit attributable to mother of 0.227 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.86%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother 0.212 billion yuan, down 41.49% year over year.
Sales of respiratory products are under pressure, and overseas markets are developing at an accelerated pace
In terms of products, 2024H1's cardiovascular products achieved revenue of 2.314 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.86%, gross profit margin of 52.77%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.76pp; respiratory products were affected by factors such as falling market demand due to high base and high social inventories in the same period last year. 2024H1 achieved revenue of 1.284 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.42%, gross profit margin of 65.68%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.54 pp. 2024H1 achieved revenue of 0.15 billion yuan in overseas markets, a year-on-year increase of 45.21%, gross profit margin of 25.89%, and an increase of 15.63pp over the previous year. The performance was impressive.
The product pipeline is rich, and innovative traditional Chinese medicine research and development continues to advance
The company is a leading enterprise in innovative traditional Chinese medicine. 2024H1 invested 0.411 billion yuan in R&D, accounting for 8.92% of revenue, and is at the leading level in the same industry. Currently, the company has a total of 14 patented Chinese medicines, of which 10 are included in the national medical insurance catalogue, 5 are included in the national essential drug catalogue, and 10 are included in expert consensus, diagnosis and treatment guidelines, and recommended medications in university textbooks. The products being developed cover diseases such as cardiovascular system, respiratory system, endocrine metabolic system, nervous system, digestive system, gynecology, pediatrics, etc. Among them, Astragalus Anti-Nasal Tablets and Chai Huang Liancheng capsules are in the application and registration stage, Luopangping tablets and Pediatric Lianhua Qinggan granules are in clinical phase III, and products such as Chai Qintong tablets, ginseng root granules, and agastache cold granules are in clinical phase II.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 11.386/12.541/13.717 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 10.35%/10.14%/9.38%, respectively; net profit to mother of 1.532/1.758/1.988 billion yuan, corresponding growth rates of 13.26%/14.79%/13.07%; EPS of 0.92/1.05/1.19 yuan/share, respectively, and a 3-year CAGR of 13.70%. Since the company is a leader in traditional Chinese medicine innovation, it is recommended to stay alert.
Risk warning: market and policy risk, R&D innovation risk, raw material price fluctuation risk