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用彼得·林奇的选股逻辑拆解满帮(YMM.US)2024年中报

Using Peter Lynch's stock selection logic to analyze Manbang's (YMM.US) 2024 interim report.

Zhitong Finance ·  Aug 29 15:13

In the recently released mid-term financial report for 2024 by ManBang Group, we see a typical case that meets Lynch's stock selection criteria.

In the vast ocean of the stock market, investors have always been tirelessly searching for companies with strong profit potential and sustainable growth momentum.

Peter Lynch, the renowned "King of Growth Stocks" investment master, has become a beacon in the hearts of many investors with his unique investment philosophy and rigorous analysis methods. One indicator he particularly focuses on is earnings per share (EPS).

In his investment philosophy, the analysis of earnings per share is not conducted in isolation, but rather requires comprehensive consideration of various factors such as the company's financial condition, market prospects, and industry trends. He firmly believes that earnings per share is not only an important indicator of the company's current operating condition, but also a key to predicting its future growth potential.

In the recently released 2024 mid-term financial report of Manbang Group, we saw a typical case that meets Lynch's stock selection criteria.

ManBang Group (YMM.US) 2024 interim report data shows that the company achieved operating revenue of 2.76 billion Chinese yuan in Q2 of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 34.1%; adjusted net income under non-US GAAP reached 0.97 billion Chinese yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%, far exceeding market expectations. This achievement is mainly due to the company's continuous innovation in the digital freight field and market expansion strategy.

Of particular note is that earnings per share has also reached a new historical high, reaching $0.11, a year-on-year increase of 32.16%.

Looking back, not only in Q2, the net income of Manbang in Q1 under non-US GAAP also reached 0.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.9%, which indirectly raised the total revenue of Manbang in the first half of the year: Manbang Group's total revenue in the first half of 2024 reached 5.03 billion yuan, a 25% year-on-year increase, also a historical high.

Taking a longer look at history, over the past 3 years, Manbang's earnings per share have been growing, with the lowest growth rate exceeding 30%, demonstrating remarkable growth resilience and stability.

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It is worth noting that Manbang's basic earnings per share have been growing since 2021Q3, with no interruption in between, which means that Manbang's earnings per share have achieved continuous growth for 15 consecutive quarters.

Behind the continuous high-speed growth in performance for many years, and the continuous breakthrough in earnings per share, is the continuous expansion of the user scale and the continuous extension of the business map of Manbang Group.

Taking 2024Q2 as an example, the average monthly active shipper on the Manbang platform reached 2.65 million, a 32.8% increase from the same period last year, and the number of active fulfillment drivers in the past 12 months has also increased to 3.98 million, with the bilateral network effect becoming increasingly significant. The fulfillment order volume reached 49.1 million, reaching a historical high, marking the significant achievements of Manbang Group in improving logistics efficiency and optimizing user experience.

Peter Lynch once emphasized that excellent companies should not only have high profitability, but also good cost control capabilities, and Manbang Group has undoubtedly excelled in this aspect.

It is worth noting that the strong performance and continuous innovation of Manbang Group have attracted the attention of many institutions.

JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Nomura Securities, and Goldman Sachs, among other internationally renowned financial institutions' asset management departments, have significantly increased their positions in Manbang. Top long-term funds Fidelity International and Hillhouse Capital continued to increase their shareholding in Manbang this quarter. As of the closing price on June 28, the two institutions' holdings in Manbang exceeded $0.35 billion. Hillhouse Capital significantly increased its position in Manbang Group in the second quarter, with a shareholding increase of up to 73%.

Under the institutional support, Manbang's stock price continued to rise in the first half of this year, reaching its highest point of $9.68 on May 20, an increase of nearly 60% from the low point at the beginning of the year.

The market's significant recognition and expectations for the long-term development prospects of Manbang signify its leading position and future growth potential in the digital freight industry. Management's confidence in the company's future development prospects and growth value is also reflected in its share repurchase and dividend plan, which has been extended by one year to March 12, 2025, with a maximum repurchase of $0.3 billion in ADS and the implementation of a $0.15 billion dividend plan.

Currently, through continuous technological innovation and high-quality service, Manbang Group is strengthening its leadership position in the digital freight industry. According to Forbes Advisor's forecast, Manbang's five-year average annual EPS growth rate is as high as 29%, indicating its potential to maintain a high profit growth rate in the coming years.

As of August 24, 2024, there are currently 12 institutions making forecasts for Manbang's target price, with an average target price of $11.49 and a maximum target price of $15.49.

In summary, through EPS analysis, we can see that Manbang's financial performance in 2024 is very impressive. Its revenue and net income have both achieved significant growth, and its gross margin and net margin have also reached new highs. In the coming years, Manbang is expected to maintain a high profit growth rate, which is where its investment value and attractiveness lie.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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